psuhoffman

I had heard a euro upgrade was coming but I didn’t know they were making the para public. Haven’t seen it anywhere until now.

Yea I took a trip up to penn mar park on Catoctin/South Mountain today with the kids. Played in the snow. Now they have true snowpack. I was envious. At least double what I have here. More like triple.

Just imagine being in north central PA. All the globals and fringing them to the south and the NAM says they barely get any snow and are mostly ice and dryslot.

The spread is crazy though. The gfs is slightly SE of the other globals but honestly the globals on a whole are in amazing agreement. Most consensus we’ve had all season really. Then the NAM is in its own parallel universe. At 72 hours the globals have the snow/sleet line running through northern VA and near DC. The NAM has it around Binghamton. I’ve rarely seen that much divergence before. And it actually starts earlier then that. By like 48 hours you can see major differences to our west that lead to the tangent solution. It’s weird.

Hope their heat pumps are working!

Don’t short them

it is pathetic compared to the 6-12” shown on the GFS/PARA/UK/Euro/CMC. When we have a consensus across ALL guidance for a bigger event I don’t think there is anything wrong with setting the bar higher. But you NEVER hear me complain during an event. If we only get a few inches so be it. But we can and should aim higher here.

Don’t look now but if the globals are right it’s not that far from a mostly (or dare we dream all) snow solution now. One or two more adjustments south and it is. I’m not sure we even want that though. This is the type of storm where the max accumulations and impact will be places right along and just into the mix zone that get the initial thump then some sleet. The all snow zone will likely feature slightly lighter accumulations.

There is nothing more I need to see from the globals. They are all close to showing max potential inside 72 hours. At this point I just want to see the NAM cave. Totally fully and completely cave and spit out some NAMd worthy 15” solution. Yea it’s (and it’s idiotic SREF friends) probably wrong but I want that option off the table because probably isn’t definitely and snow is serious business

Gefs 24 hour trend

It was only like 2 people canceling winter after this week and one was Ji who should count as -1.

Yea I didn’t want to throw that part in because I know there are parts of this sub that haven’t had much snow. But I’ve had plenty of ho hum minor snowfalls lately. I want something dynamic.

This. This will very likely trend north the last 48 hours. We want to get it as far south as we can now. I wouldn’t mind one more south jump tonight before the likely bleed north on guidance starts once the wave tonight gets out of the way.

First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business. But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get. But I don’t really track for that. And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so. I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode. I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 200 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door! That’s just me. Glad someone got my snark. Of course I don’t expect the big solutions. But every major global is spitting out 6”+ so obviously it’s an option so that’s what I’m rooting for. Dunno why we shouldn’t! It’s like with the Eagles. For most of my 42 years I’ve fully expected them to disappoint me. But I’m still there with my brother and cousin screaming expletives that would make a sailor blush when they F up. Just because I expected the fail doesn’t mean I wasn’t rooting to be pleasantly surprised! Snow is the same. And I don’t need every storm to hit. I know we don’t get that many big events. I’m ok with that. I’m ok when they fail. You don’t see me throwing fits during or after a fail. But when we’re tracking hell yea I want to see guidance trend towards 20”/hr rates with flakes the size of cars that will crush you if they land on you. I’m not a settle kind of guy. But no issue with others who have different opinions on snow.

Notice we are saying the exact same things but due to stylistic differences how we express it changes how it’s perceived. Lol And people can say they are good with a compromise (and yea if it ends up going that way fine and I’ll take what we get. No choice anyways. But come on everyone is rooting for the 6”+ thump snow. We might accept less but we want to see everything trend to the globals not compromise with the BS the NAM is spitting out. Screw the NAM. Globals hold the line damnit. Don’t give an inch. Force the NAM into unconditional unmitigated surrender.

The rgem is acceptable. But it was a baby step towards the NAM. That’s not something I want to see. Frankly I don’t want signs they will “compromise”. A compromise is a minor snow to ice event. No thanks. I signed up for the euro/para/uk 6-12” of snow package. I’m not settling for some pathetic run of the mill 2-4” to mix event.

Careful apparently letting the NAM spook you wrt mid level warmth qualifies as “going off the rails” to some ( @leesburg 04 ) around here. I agree is probably just an outlier. It’s not stringing out the energy like the globals and that allows the primary to amplify and push everything to our NW. Its so different from everything else (except the SREF which like that idea too). If I HAD to bet I would favor the globals but I don’t feel great with the NAM showing that. Given all the recent let downs I’d like to have it on board before letting myself get overly optimistic about the big snow totals being indicated by everything else.

NAM wants to be stubborn. Yes it took a baby step early but it’s not even close. It’s off by over 100 miles on where it places that band of snow.

EPS trend

Yup. People can say what they want but everyone should feel better if the NAM gets on board.

More like 3 years.

The upper level energy is actually washing out as the system runs into the cold. It’s all WAA and fgen forcing driven. There isn’t much in the way of classic coastal.

Arctic air fail fail

They are used to getting the short end

Nope not my concern with this one.