psuhoffman

on a more specific level wave spacing didn’t go our way either. The wave that popped up Monday prevented the cold from pressing behind this weekends wave. It ends up being one long wave train from Saturday to Tuesday with the front stalled to our NW. very very different then if the high had come over the top behind the wave Saturday (when there was no Monday wave). Then the spacing is too great between Monday/Tuesday and the Thursday/Friday wave. With the TPV gone and the NAO gone we needed good wave spacing to work. It’s not like that was impossible or dire we had good cold around to our NW and we’ve seen that work with some luck but we didn’t get any. Sounds too familial.

Actually from 2 weeks away they were just off by about 100-150 miles. Just to our NW is going to get crushed this week by several waves of frozen. The guidance was too far SE with that boundary but the error was well within what we should expect from those ranges. Once it got within the magic day 5 where details start to show it became apparent we were on the wrong side. If we want to parse why the guidance from range didn’t retrograde and break the block as fast which had the TPV and boundary pressed further east. But it’s a minor error that’s going to happen all the time at that range. It could have shifted equally the other way and pulled what it did in Dec 2016 when a similar look showed 35” from day 7 and became cold and dry with weak waves suppressed south of us. Both are equally likely and equally minor errors for long range. The problem imo is us pretending we have the ability to pin down the exact track of synoptic systems from range. Truth is there is only typically a snow “win” zone of about 100 miles with any synoptic system but from day 7 there is a typical error of hundreds of miles. So under no pattern or setup should we ever be confident in a snowfall from that range.

We’re discussing numerology. What do you think?

@Maestrobjwa correlation and causality are not the same. Correlations can be due to random chaos and when there is no logical possible link to causality that is usually the best explanation.

For you sanity’s sake I really hope this was a joke post

I think we’re splitting hairs. There are some Nina characteristics but also some not. The pac currently is a mix match or some good and some bad features. Like we’ve pointed out in about 10 days it looks like a totally canonical Nina. But it’s been a Nina all winter so.... Also I don’t think we can attribute the pac ridge to Nina when it’s been there for years including 2 ninos! I think that’s a permanent pac base state due to warmer SSTs now. I think that’s going to be there to some degree ALL THE TIME regardless of enso until the whole pac and IO SST non tropical base state changes. The last 4 enso events didn’t produce a typical response. I don’t think enso is driving the bus.

@Wentzadelphia so we got what you wanted with Tuesday now going way to our west so why is Thursday still degrading across guidance also??????

According to @Wentzadelphia that’s good for Thursday right. RIGHT???

No snow hates us

Honestly the Geps GEFS and eps all look about the same now.

Atlantic could offset the pac in March but ATT guidance hints the next -NAO is very east based. Meanwhile the pac degrades into a true dumpster fire look in about a week. So I’m not sure that equation will work. But it’s close enough not to shut out the lights.

@CAPE ironically the pac becomes more a dumpster fire in a week just as we get the Atlantic side back to a favorable look. Lol

6z eps trended warmer Thursday. This was the easiest thing to predict ever. Euro would be right about the further north wave Monday and GFS would be right about the warmer wave Thursday. I never liked Thursday much. With no TpV around to suppress the flow I don’t see how that doesn’t track west. Tuesday I loved until suddenly the TPV decided to stall and elongate NE so it comes through behind the waves instead of in front. I see nothing in the flow to press the boundary south of us other then dumb luck.

Right now there is an Aleutian low, trough east of Hawaii, and a ridge in AK. The pac does not look like a Nina config to me. I think the block retrograding too far was the biggest problem. Pulled the TPV west and opened the door for a ridge in the SE. The pac isn’t great but it’s not a dumpster fire it’s kinda meh. Had the Atlantic side not broken down we would be good.

Only thing I see that’s mildly a good setup is the wave around the 22-23. Btw @Wentzadelphia Tuesday is almost a full cutter on the gfs now and Thursday keeps trending warmer also. So why am I rooting for Tuesday to wash away all my snow again?

The deck was already reshuffled when the block retrograded too far west. We need the NAO to tank again. The pac isn’t changing. And I don’t mean the Nina. The PAC pattern has been virtually the same for 3+ years now and 2 of those were ninos. This is the pac base state. We need other things to mitigate it. It’s not magically going away.

For the last 24 hours the euro/eps has wanted nothing to do with Tuesday but liked Thursday. GFS was opposite. My gut says they meet in the middle and they both go west of us.

Yea but the flow is all wrong and there is nothing to stop it with the TPV long gone. Probably would start as ice no matter what but if we’re chasing snow it’s got a lot of work to do.

Gefs shifted south quite a bit 18z for Tuesday but north Thursday. Ironically the EPS did the opposite. Lol

Did you guys see THIS!!!!

I don’t control anything so it doesn’t matter...but the only way I’m rooting to lose my snow is if the storm we get after replaces it with MORE snow. If I lose a 8” snowpack to get a 6” storm that’s a bad deal lol. Funny is the GEFS likes Tuesday more but hated Thursday and EPS is opposite. Watch them compromise and miss us with both lol.

Yea but I don’t want to lose my snowpack lol.

Thursday, with the spacing after Tuesday, ends up the setup we thought we had for Tuesday. But Tuesday would have been even better with a fresher Arctic airmass and a TPV pressing over the top. That’s why I was so optimistic. But the waves Saturday to Tuesday all strung out into one continuous wave train that doesn’t allow the boundary to press east. Thursday could work but it’s a shame, Tuesday would have been an even better setup had the Sunday/Monday wave not popped up.

I resisted saying this but I guess what I’m hinting at is given the current N Hem pac and atl warm SST base states (people can blame it on whatever makes you sleep better at night but the current warm SSTs aren’t up for debate) I’m wondering if a pattern that would have produced a 20” snow year in DC won’t struggle like this one. I don’t think we are on opposite sides of this discussion but we’re focused on different things. Your points why the potential of the NAO was muted is valid. What what I’m saying is historically it should still have yielded better results than it did. Not 2010 or 2003 but not everything has to be blockbuster level. Remember the chart that showed even in a Nina -NAO months still averaged above normal snowfall. So your focused on why the Nina prevented a big 2010 type response but I’m focused more on why we didn’t even get a more typical historical Nina -NAO result!

Except imo given the base state the pac was as friendly as we could have possibly hoped. It wasn’t good. Mediocre at best. But it wasn’t the central pac 3-5 std dv flat ridge we had all last winter (in a nino no less). We had some variance, some pna at times, some epo and some Aleutian low periods and very few shut the lights looks. The whole time we had a perfect AO/NAO. Dunno. But the reason I resist the simple view of “the Nina” is if you pull out the Nina’s with a +AO and a flat pac ridge (this was NOT that type) the others aren’t as hostile a snow climo. Only 1996 was a true blockbuster but most of the others in that type ended up near normal or even a little above.