psuhoffman

It wasnt much but there were a few threats... I doubt this ends up THAT bad. Actually while Nina's are typically bad they arent usually the absolute worst total shut out years...those tend to be either enso neutral years where the pac and nao both go to crap simultaneously or strong east based nino's where warmth just overwhelms the continent. 1973, 1998, 2002, 2020 all fit those two categories. Even the worst Nina's typically have some cold shots and snow chances.

LOL. We will have some chances. Even in 2019/20 which was probably about as horribly bad start to end as a winter can be from a longwave pattern POV...we did have some opportunities. There was a chance at a coastal that year with a temporary setup from a hudson bay ridge which is a good way to get a snowstorm here in an otherwise crap hemispheric pattern. But the storm had a sloppy phase and didnt come together. But even in that year there were a couple times we got to track something and with a little more luck maybe we get at least 1-2 snow events that year. It wont be easy, but I still think we get some legit chances and its not a total dud.

can I say it????

It scores higher than the GFS, but those scores are based on large scale anomalies and not necessarily indicative of how well it does with what we care about, a very specific thing...snow on our lawns.

for fun I broke warning events for the 19 year period down by month. This is the raw numbers by month and the % each month produced a warning event any given year. Oct: 5%, Nov: 11%, Dec: 42%, Jan: 32%, Feb 58%, Mar: 47% Oct: 1, Nov: 2, Dec: 11, Jan: 8, Feb:16, Mar: 10

true... These records go back a few years before I got to this area...but these are the numbers of warning level events per year since that 2002 year...the last year without up here. I used the coop in town for the 4 years before I got here. 2003 3 2004 3 2005 3 2006 2 2007 2 2008 1 2009 1 2010 4 2011 2 2012 1 2013 2 2014 7 2015 3 2016 2 2017 1 2018 2 2019 3 2020 1 2021 5

It's possible accuweather cared about their reputation and professional integrity more and held him in check. It's possible weatherbell could be playing both sides...we don't really know for sure what they send to their clients...and at times the things he is saying don't completely align with what JoeD and others on Wxbell are saying. JB might just be the public hype man to get hits, attention, and weenie subscriptions.

Didn't you used to run the panic room???

I think he still knows what he is talking about...he is playing people for fools. There are times he is contradicting things he said earlier in the season (when situations change) or going against things others in his own company are saying or "forgets" things I know he knows from 2 decades ago when I used to correspond with him and he wasn't like this at all. He has either really totally and completely lost his mind or he is has simply sold out and doing it on purpose. It's probably a little of both but I still think its mostly an act. If he admits now that its probably going to be warm and snowless for the foreseeable future his subscription numbers for December will take a hit.

I hacked into his cam as he prepares today's video

I had 103” that winter. At one point in Feb there were drifts up to roofs. I would sign up for several bad winters to experience that again. some pics from a walk I took into town that year.

I just realized since moving up here March is the month most likely to produce a warning level snowfall. Probably why I get annoyed when people start talking about spring in February.

Lastly I would gladly suffer the same fate for what came next….

Somehow we managed to totally waste a pretty good longwave pattern Jan and Feb that winter. Did get a storm in early March.

How did we waste this in January 2009? asking because this year kinda reminds me of Dec 2008 so far.

That screams cold/dry warm/wet to me. We need the epo ridge to extend into western Canada without blocking. An epo ridge with no blocking tends to have storms cut to our west. We get cold behind them but I don’t see what would keep any amplified storm under us in that look. Could see ice perhaps in that setup. It’s forever out. What we need is either for that epo ridge that shift east or for the NAO to go negative

The one way this could work would be if the guidance is wrong wrt the depth of the cold from that range. That isn't an impossible error but it does go against usual bias at this range and has the time of year working against it and there are a ton of other ways this could trend all of which equal no snow. So imo by far the most likely end result is more wet than white but I suppose its not completely hopeless.

This is exactly my thoughts also

its too dry to work out

New updated full list... I will be sending a "test" email soon using the list to make sure everyone is on the spreadsheet correctly. I will let you know when that happens. Wvclimo BTRWx Demeter Just654 alexderieer Mordecai TarHeelSnow RDM maestrobjwa snowenoutthere Cobalt dmac AJB jmcnemar PrestigeWorldwide poolz1 eskimojoe anotherman TSG scraff weatherShak GeorgeBM Nwbaltimorewx LP08 WxWatcher007 MattieG KMLwx snowmon WxUSAF NorthArlington101 toolsheds MillVilleWx WinterWxLuvr RandomChaos 2010extreme

I will admit I am biased since I have had some interaction with him and we go way back on the weather boards...but imo he can make good posts when he wants to and isn't putting on his "the world is ending" act that he likes to do. Granted, you have to wade through all his "the sky is falling" stuff to see them though.

The good news is it literally can’t get any worse then that. That’s 100% opposite of what we want in every way.

This is who I have as of now scraff WeatherShak georgeBM nwbaltimorewx LP08 wxWatcher007 mattieg kmlwx snowmon WxUSAF Ajb northArlington101 toolsheds MillVilleWx WinterWxLuvr Handle Wvclimo BTRWx Demeter Just654 alexderieer Mordecai TarHeelSnow RDM maestrobjwa snowenoutthere Cobalt dmac jmcnemar PrestigeWorldwide poolz1 eskimojoe

You will get absolutely crushed there in classic coastal storms. You will also do very well in marginal events for 95. It’s really only events that are marginal even for this area that my area will do better but those do happen a couple times a year. Last year was weird with so many of them.

Parrs south of Westminster is comperable to your area Imo.