psuhoffman

Because you don’t want to see it. Analog based projections on where we are now (mjo phase 6/7 in Dec with a -NAO) roll forward into a cold January. Btw since some are worried about how far the mjo progresses a phase 7 in a January Nina is a pretty good look anyways. Seversl consecutive runs the last 48 hours all 3 major ensembles showed a great look in early Jan. But you focused on the data that supported your fear. Now the gefs had a bad run and you are focusing on that. Even if it showed the same thing it did yesterday would it matter? It didn’t yesterday!

The gefs really deepens the trough west of AK then extends it east which prevents the linking of the pac and atl which is what we need. The geps and eps doesn’t do that so let’s just hope it’s a mistaken handling of one feature. I’ll also trust analog pattern progression based constructs over NWP simulations at those ranges. It’s worth keeping an eye on but I still like where we are in terms of our January prospects (relative to Nina expectations!).

I think this is worth pointing out. Something I’ve known but REALLY stuck out when I was updating some of my snowfall data spreadsheets recently was the fact that the biggest change in our snow climo seems to be the fact we don’t squeeze many minor snowfall events out of bad patterns anymore. Imo where our climo has taken a hit most is 2 places, marginal temp events that used to be 32-33 degree snowfalls 30+ years ago don’t work now and bad patterns are such torches now that you can almost forget about sneaking some lucky 1-3” event in during them. The boundary just isn’t likely to be close enough even behind waves when every ridge goes ape now. So bad patterns are now always a total shutout. We used to eek out some snows in not good patterns, not so much recently. The good news is our luck in good patterns doesn’t seem to have changed that much. DC always only averaged about 1 warning event per season. That is still true the last 20 years. When we do get a good look it does still snow. I also don’t think the prevalence of getting good patterns is changing. I know we just went through several years of +NAO but it looks like that cycle has flipped predictably. We always spend more time in not so good patterns. We’re too far south for the majority of combinations to work. Spending 60-70% of the time in a pattern not “good” for snow is normal. It’s just our typical climo went from spending 2/3 of the time in patterns that weren’t good but still lucking our way to some minor snowfalls then 1/3 in good patterns when we could get warning level events to now spending 2/3 in total shut out no hope torch patterns then praying we cash in during the 1/3 when we have decent patterns because we have to get all our snow then! I know that’s really frustrating but that’s just our reality now.

Thanks. I had a bad reaction to antibody infusion but I’m out of the hospital and doing somewhat better. Hopefully I’ll be up and about again soon. Wish there was something more exciting to track than a pattern change but then again if it snowed now I couldn’t really enjoy it so maybe it’s for the best.

It would be nice to get snow and cold. But that almost never happens. So I’m sure Christmas will be just fine if the weather is what it typically is.

Just to illustrate. Gefs Dec 27 when it was 15 days away and now when it’s 9 days. The gefs hasn’t been kicking the can. That’s amazing consistency.

Setting realistic personal goals is a good thing

EPS moved up the progression by 24 hours too so no can kicking. When this period was at range guidance teased a slightly colder look for next week but it was always precarious and the excellent pattern progression analysis Webb posted showed the SE ridge would temporarily pump again and we had to wait until January to get the trough in the east. The can isn’t being kicked we just aren’t being patient. This happens every time.

Decent agreement for early January

If the pac ridge shifts east into the epo and you get a epo and NAO ridge then you can get a full conus trough.

Agree…except that’s kinda the thing. There is this perception that Nina’s are warm. But there are 2 distinct types of ninos. Type one is with a flat pac ridge and no blocking. The flat fast pac flow is related to the lack of blocking. Those are all out torches across all N America and the worst winters. See below composite of those Nina’s in the last 30 years. but those are actually the minority of Nina’s. About 40%. Most have a more poleward pac ridge at times and or some blocking. Those Nina’s are actually typically avg to below avg temps here. Below composure of those Nina’s in last 30 years But other than 1996 they all had kinda lackluster snow (considering the pattern and temps) because they were DRY! Warm wasn’t the issue. Actually…this is a composite of all non Nina winters in the last 20 years WITHOUT the 3 modoki ninos. Those are really the only “guaranteed to be good” enso phase. The type 2 Nina’s are preferable to THIS… If we could ever get either an anomalously active stj in a Nina OR lucky with a few miller b’s like we did in 96, we could see what happened in 1996 again. I just wouldn’t bet on it. But we get plenty of Nina’s where it’s cold enough. Just not wet enough.

That’s where this is heading Imo. Most of the analogs to the current pattern point to that being the end of this progression. Makes sense logically. The ridge that starts in Europe eventually retrogrades until it links with the pacific ridge. Question is do we take more advantage of it than Jan 2011. History of Nina’s with this progression suggests we get snow, probably one “good” storm…but this isn’t a Nino. 96 was an outlier even for an extreme blocking event in a Nina. I have tempered expectations vs what we might expect if this was a neutral or Nino with more stj being likely. So if we set the bar realistically and just root for a good result “for a Nina” I think this will likely perform. But it’s still a Nina so if anyone expects a 2010 type outcome it’s going to be frustrating.

We went through a very similar progression to this last winter. Last year we got a raging Ak vortex for 2 weeks that destroyed all the cold in N America though. This year we’re in better shape if a similar progression happens. But it requires patience. Remember in January when we had a similar pattern at range things were cutting only to end up suppressed. We got teased each time around day 4-5 as the south trend happened. Not saying everything will be exactly the same but I wouldn’t discount squashed with that Atlantic look. Doesn’t mean snow though. Things will be deamplifying so it takes a perfect thread the needle track and we’re talking likely more minor threats. Being downwind the apps hurts even more when a storm is weakening so the gulf and Atlantic moisture are mostly out of the game. Good news is what “could” come next. If this pattern takes the natural typical progression…as the NAO continues to retrograde it will eventually link up with the North Pacific ridge. Once that happens the trough will end up in the east. This happened last year but we lacked the necessary cold for DC to cash in. Imagine a replay of last year but 5 degrees colder. DC has a 15-20” season easy and that’s a big win in a Nina. When I talk about how this could work Im still being relative to the fact we’re in a Nina. If we get a median to avg snow winter there a top 10% Nina outcome and a win imo

I know. Fwiw last year the pattern went exactly how I thought it would when the blocking started to show and the likely progression became apparent near New Years. My 50” up here was about what you would expect. But for 95 every storm was just a few degrees too warm. Several were perfect tracks too. I said it wasn’t likely to be cold just “cold enough” but it was slightly too warm. I have to wonder if it was 20 years ago would it have worked out better and 95 would have had ~20” which is more fitting with a year I have 50”. If that’s the case was it a pattern fail or a climate change fail?

@Eskimo Joe2002 started nothing like this. The pac was opposite. We did have a good Atlantic but the pac ridge was south allowing North America to get flooded with warmth. When the Atlantic backed off it was game over. This isn’t progressing the same way. Of course there are multiple paths to a fail here.

Relax. The north pac ridge isn’t ideal but it could be worse. I’d be way more pessimistic if it was a mid latitude ridge again like recent years. Then we’d have the conus blasted with pac puke again. We know the best we can realistically hope for is a decent winter giving the limitations of the pac base state. Given the options (we know there will be a ridge somewhere in the pac this isn’t the type base state where we can get a huge trough there which would be ideal) this is as good as we can hope for. It’s not working now because we just had an AK vortex and a positive AO and NAO. Would you rather that ridge in the pac retreat and the vortex pull back to Ak and we repeat early last year? Blocking has a lag. We go through this everytime a block is just setting in. Its not instant. But if the blocking has staying power eventually the cold will spread east under the block. History shows a -epo/-NAO in January/February is cold enough. Thibgs could fail. A epo/NAO pattern in a Nina can be frustratingly dry. And we always need luck. And maybe the blocking fades too fast. Dunno. But there are no signs of it yet. So wait until after Xmas at least before throwing in the towel on a pattern that’s still a week away from starting.

The blocks gonna try to work its magic and there are hints that even though that first stj wave misses the connection to the NS the next NS SW might pull some sort of partial phase with the leftover stj energy. But even if all that happens then we might still end up left out if the cold retreats too much or the track isn’t perfect. It’s not no hope. But it’s complicated and we don’t do complicated usually so I tend to bet against it. Every once in a while these crazy setups do work out. Someone with more faith than me should put in a prayer for a Christmas miracle.

I debated not saying anything but I have Covid. I had all 3 Moderna shots so I will probably be fine. Thought I had the flu since I’ve been taking care of my daughter and son who both had the flu. But tested positive today.

@WxWatcher007congrats on the wedding. But so sorry about your father. Obviously wishing him the best recovery.

I get what you’re saying but it’s pointless to do that to yourself. We have no control. And yes ideally we want to time up a blocking pattern with a Nino but there is a reason years like 2010 don’t happen that often. So take what you can get. If Baltimore gets like 17” this winter instead of 6” in a Nina without any blocking, take it! Be happy. Life’s too short. And besides maybe 1996 does happen again eventually. Hope springs eternal.

@WEATHER53 sorry I was snarky last night. I’ll try to be less hostile. I was thinking about how you criticize the spread of numerical guidance at range and how they are designed to show every possible solution. Well you’re right…in a way. They shouldn’t show EVERY solution but they should have spread to show every reasonably possible permutation. A model run isn’t a forecast. It’s a tool to help make a forecast. And we know we don’t have the ability to model the atmosphere at long leads completely correctly. Seeing all the possible permutations then using meteorological knowledge and skill to determine what is the most likely reality is more useful than if the guidance spit out one solution that was wrong most of the time. That would be pretty useless. So the spread is useful since we know the simulation won’t be perfect. That’s where we have to step in and figure out what’s the most likely outcome.

Fixed

I would love for the two waves before and during Xmas to work but their long shots. But the guidance is turning that Xmas wave into a monster 50/50 and preserving the west based block. If that’s accurate look for the period after that for a legit threat. Any legit wave would have a good chance.

It wasn’t AWFUL but 15.6” total (considering bwi climo was ~ 22” during that period) with that pattern would have been a let down. It was also worse up here. Low 20s I think which is a bottom 10% snowfall winter here. Cold/dry if my memory of the records is right. Just crazy that 2000 was better wrt snowfall when the pattern was absolutely sheet 90% of that winter.

I’m pretty inclusive Sounds like gerrymandering