psuhoffman

As long as it ends like this

The last couple Gfs runs sucked but they did get to a place we wanted at the end. If getting a huge cutter and rain to Int Falls is what it takes to shake this up so be it.

The effects of low level heat added can be thwarted by the pattern to an extent. I’m not saying if we had a trough in the east it would still be warm. But what I’ve noticed is every ridge ends up going ape. I suspect the added heat simply adds fuel to attempted ridging.

I think that’s a factor but more so the other thing I said. In a -NAO/epo/pna pattern we need the trough to be broad and spread out. The cold will center west but press east. There will naturally be attempts at ridging in the east in that wavelength and we need the ridge to be suppressed. But the more you warm things in general logically the harder it is to suppress attempted ridging. The more heat you add the more ridges will win in that fight.

I’m sure many will interpret my posts as towel throwing even though I said it’s not…but one thing I’d advise caution looking at that there is with how it’s likely to adjust. That is what historical analogs suggest this should evolve too so it’s east to buy into it. But we’ve seen lately that 2 things, so long as the dominant pac longwave features are the same the trough will struggle to fight off the SE ridge and the guidance is missing this past day 10 because some members do put the trough in the east which muted the SE ridge signal in the means. But what happens as we get closer is the guidance is nailing the longwave features and the troughs and ridges just sharpen up. That little muted se ridge will very likely become more of a problem in future runs until we see something upstream change. On that I still see the n pac ridge slightly too far west, trough west of Hawaii. I don’t see anything has changed that would lend confidence it’s not again underestimating the SE ridge response. I don’t know what he said but I mentioned 2 specific ways warming could logically be impacting this pattern. The high latitudes aren’t our problem and I’m not sure how much impact the strat can have on the mid latitude pacific pattern which is our main problem.

It is

The ensembles are definitely kicking the csn now. Psu cant really argue that. That se ridge a monster The last 72 hours was a definite change. But you can’t just jump on things the first run something hints, and it happens non linearly with some good runs mixed back in, but it’s undeniable the guidance is backing away from any progression of the pacific pattern and that the N pac ridge will be too dominant for the NAO to have enough impact. I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s kicking the can as much as just stalling the pac progression. Speculating on what’s gone wrong, yes some of the mjo wave makes it into 8 but it’s really weak and now there are other areas of convection in less ideal locations so maybe the mjo won’t have the influence needed to fight the Nina base state. Additionally the pac ridge pna trough combo isn’t just typical Nina. It’s near record breaking. Early in winter thats too much for the NAO to fight off. If we repeated this in Feb/March we might have a better chance. Heavy speculation but could climate change play a factor? The gulf is on fire and adding latent heat to ridging in the east. When there is less cold globally it also stands to reason the cold will be less expansive where it is concentrated. That’s a problem when we have a -NAO -epo, -pna because the cold will dump west initially then we need it to eject and spread east under the block. Analogs suggest that’s typical. It’s not happening this time. At least not yet. Lastly I’m not tossing winter. This isn’t my post in Dec 2019 when I pretty much trashed our chances the whole season. There are still enough positives to work with in the base state to hope we get some periods of opportunity. I still have not given up on January if the pac can either back off or progress some. But the NAO won’t stay negative forever and we’re wasting prime time right now. What to look for that would be a sign this season was going in the tank like 2002 or 2020…if the pac ridge continues to be as strong and sinks into the mid latitude and AO goes raging positive it’s game over. That’s a stable pattern that often lasts months snd would eat away what’s left of winter. There is no sign of that yet but that’s a way this could evolve where I would admit it’s game over.

So if it keeps moving at this speed we’re good!

Still riding history that suggests amplified waves that start in 6/7 almost always make it to 8. Just the % 8/1

The guidance nailed the longwave pattern. And there was variability with some runs hinting the blocking would suppress the SE ridge and other runs saying the ridge would flex too much. The latter won. But how much suppression was always iffy.

They look good out until ranges when it doesn’t matter. Couple points… 1) sometimes when we think the long range guidance is “can kicking” it’s just that when it ends on a good look people project that to remain. But the western trough is ejecting waves and between them there will still be ridging. That doesn’t mean we can’t get snow. A -NAO -epo -pna pattern can work in January if we get favorable wave spacing. Take the euro from yesterday to today. Day 15 last night looked good… But look what day 16 was going to look like… The euro today isn’t can kicking it’s just seeing past one wave to the next! The pattern isn’t perfect “yet?” But it’s one we could work with. Just need things to line up. it gets even better by the second week of January on the weeklies. 2) I know we make fun of the snow maps and taken by themselves they are useless but I think there is some value looking at this 7 day mean for the second week of January to support the h5 map you posted. That’s what we want a 7 day snow map to look like wrt where the snowfall is centered and the distribution. Can clearly see what the guidance thinks the pattern will be like with waves riding SW to NE along the boundary.

First I wanted to say even though I lamented the loss of some of our old regulars there has been some really good analysis on here lately. Second, I don’t mind scientific analysis that suggests results we don’t want. I don’t shy away from saying when it’s bad. But what is kinda annoying is the straight deb stuff with absolutely no legit analysis to support it. The “it’s gonna suck because it just sucks here most of the time” type stuff. Yea it’s probably going to suck at any given time. It sucks ~80% of the time. That’s our climo. Anyone can do that! What most of us are here for is looking for signs of and waiting for those rare instances when it doesnt suck. Having to Wade through dozens of posts of “it just sucks” absent any reasoning to support it sucks even more imo. If you have legitimate observation based evidence that shows why it will suck by all means I don’t mind hearing and discussing it. But if you’re just venting because there isn’t any blue over you on the latest model run…that doesn’t add anything of value. just my 2 cents.

There are a lot of variables. generic phase 7 is warm in January. However 8 is cold. And cold enso 7 is cold. So Imo where in 7 matters a lot and so does what the soi is doing. If the Nina influence wanes we would need a further progression of the mjo to see the same impact. I suspect somewhere between 175-180 there is the flip where we can get the epo ridge nudged far enough east to kick the trough out of the west. The guidance is teasing us with the wave stalling right around that magic spot.

I am getting a little nervous of what happens if the mjo stalls in 7 and never progresses. Frankly the dominant convection has stalled almost in 6. The really good roll forward analog projections are based on the fact that a high amplitude phase 6/7 almost always makes it to 8. But there are always exceptions. The mjo dying in phase 6/7 would possibly muck up my expected pattern progression. I’m not favoring that att but doesn’t mean I’m not aware of it.

Looks like cpc let Chuck have the crayons.

It’s not as necessary as it’s seemed lately. I have a theory. We were in such a dominant +AO phase that it took stratospheric disruption to alter. When we are in a less hostile long term phase l, like I suspect we are now, we can get a favorable high latitude pattern without as much air from a SSW.

VERY nice geps run

Nice gefs run

It’s still a better indicator

All 3 major global ensemble systems are back to forecasting a favorable pattern in January. Where is @Weather Will???

Problem with that is you’re taking only one factor in isolation. There are radically different results mixed in there. What you’re seeing is that years with a super -PDO AND a pos AO/NAO the pattern is such a torch it outduels the -pdo/-AO years in the means. I have no doubts if the AO flips back positive for the remainder of winter we are screwed. I’ve said many times we NEED NAO help in a Nina. But if, big if, we get the NAO to be cooperative at times that changes the metric and what years in that large sample are most relevant.

That’s sad because social media you can’t have the same level of discourse as here. Imo social media is better if your goal is just to blast your own content out there but worse for meaningful dialogue, collaboration and community.

I was thinking EXACTLY what you just said then decided not to even post. Tired of wasting my time.

No wonder bob chill left It’s not just bob chill. Go back and read some of the threads from 10 years ago and the number of really high quality posters in a day. We have about 1/3 now, if that. And I know change is normal but we aren’t replacing the people that leave. I don’t see any new posters of the same quality taking over. It’s troubling. I don’t know exactly why that is but it’s troubling.

Yesterday you were equally pessimistic when every long range model was showing a favorable pattern.