psuhoffman

4 of your 5 analogs are from a 5 year period…and it would be pretty hard to use those to make any substantive forecast. 07-08 and 11-12 were very similar. And 08-09, 10-11, 20-21 all bore similarity. But those two groups of Nina’s bore little resemblance with each other other than they were all below normal snowfall. But that’s kinda a given and probably should be the forecast any year since ~75% are below normal. But one group was very warm with a dominant southeast east ridge all winter and no real hope of frozen. The other group was much colder with a lot of teases but still as typical on a Nina not much payoff in terms of snow. We know a Nina will VERY likely have below avg snow but in terms of deciding if it will be the colder v warmer type those analogs are useless.

You don't know how bad it could have been without luck!

@Maestrobjwa if we apply the average of each climatological period...BWI has had below normal snowfall 22 of the last 30 years. That means ANY year there is a 73% chance that it will be below average. And considering the average snowfall is pretty low...that means there is a 73% chance winter is going to SUCK every year. Most winters in this region suck. That is just climo. The average is inflated by 1-2 really big anomalous snowfall years each decade. Our typical normal climo in a decade is to have 1-2 really huge winters with 30"+ snowfall...one near average winter with about 20" and 7 bad winters with some degree of god awful to just regular old crappy low snowfall. That is what normal is the mid atlantic. I don't fault anyone for not being happy with that...but that is reality. That's why I moved to the northern edge of our region and on top of a freaking mountain ridge...and frankly I am still not satisfied wrt snowfall far too often. But living in and around DC and Baltimore and expecting 20" of snowfall every winter is just not aligned with reality and will leave you disappointed about 75% of the time.

-pna

It’s such a small sample size it’s hard to draw strong conclusions wrt causation. Additionally, since our winters are skewed low wrt snowfall almost any variable will show some correlation to low snowfall. That’s because we are likely to get a crappy winter ANY year since like 65-70% are crap! That said early snowfall obviously is not an indication of a snowy winter either. And since we tend to get pattern cycles plus the effect of pattern drivers changes as the winter jet strengthens it also stands to reason getting a good pattern in October/November probably is a net negative for the odds of getting one in January. But…snow is so rare here I’m on the “take it when you can get it” train. Yea I’d rather a storm in January but I’m not kicking an October snow out of bed either.

Did I miss something?

I should finish my basement and turn it into a winter snow retreat, summer heat escape suite.

This is going great

But other then that how was the play Mrs Lincoln?

That’s not all

And last winter was 12”, 10”, 5” At the 3 airports. It was a good winter for me. Not good in the DC Balt urban corridor. Last winter was the tightest gradient I can remember.

My evaluation is weighted very highly on the DCA/IAD/BWI urban corridor. That’s where “most” of this forum lives. And this is subjective but my rationale… DC had 3” In 2012-13. 2016 wasn’t only 3 days. There were some February events. One DCA south and one for the northern areas. And a minor March event. And those 3 days were one of the top 5 snowstorms in this area ever. So…I only gave it ok. Sorry but any winter with a HECS is ok to me regardless what else. 2018 was just a mistake and belongs in the bad category.

Lol. This is totally subjective but you seem to imply 2011 should be in the “ok” category here. I think if we were to split winters into “good, ok, bad” categories that year was perceived as bad by most. Well below avg snowfall across the area and lots of disappointments. And not the kind where we get a few inches but others got more. Storms that totally blanked us while not too far away got dumped. Just for reference if I was categorizing winters since 2000 it would provably be Good: 2003, 2010, 2014, 2015 ok: 2000, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2016, 2018, 2019 bad: 2001, 2002, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2020, 2021 of course, as I said, that’s very subjective. You could get to break away the “really awful” years where it barely snowed at all like 2002, 2012, 2020 and say 2011 wasn’t one of those and yea…but that’s a super low bar.

Umm DC had 10” and BWI 14” total in 2011. Both below avg. That’s remembered as a pretty bad year in this forum.

Yes ouch but that’s kinda been the trend/ratio recently. DC has not benefited from good winters in Philly as often recently as historically.

Nothing is absolute. But if we want a blockbuster winter we probably need some pac cooperation. And given recent trends if I had to choose one I’d take the pac over the Atlantic. 50 years ago it might have been the opposite. But temps are by far the biggest issue now. If we want a hecs level storm the NAO is still necessary. The only hecs without NAO assist was PD2 and that featured a well timed transient monster 50/50 that substituted. We can still snow with NAO help and a bad pac but it’s more likely later in winter. December and January we really need the pac. By late February and March we can sometimes get lucky without pac help. March 2018 was an example.

My thoughts just glancing at that were “whatever benefit in the enso region is more than offset by the degradation in the north PAC”.

There are degrees between marine Pac and arctic. Getting a direct arctic air discharge during blocking is difficult because said block usually cuts off cross polar flow also. It’s not just blocking on one side! What we need is for Canada to not be torching. If we need a direct shot of Siberian air to get snow might as well give up. That’s incredibly rare and even more rare that a pattern that produces it also leads to a big snowstorm.

Sure, let me just grab my boat and let my boss know.

You can’t just decide to define a Nina differently. The point you’re making about the oddity and abnormal (non nina) behavior is very valid but by the way we define a Nina it was a Nina. This is irrelevant since we have almost none of the oddities that causes 1995/6 to behave antithetical too a canonical Nina.

Yea when I noticed what appeared to be rotation I checked but didn’t see much on radar, no warning, so figured must not be much. I guess NWS did pick up something though because they then warned that “cell” if you can even call it that, a few mins later.

@mappy I could see rotation in that cell warned in NW BaltCo now when it passes further south on my way home. That’s twice this summer I saw what I thought was clear signs of tornadic potential but the storm wasn’t warned so I just blew it off only to have the cell warned a few minutes later. A couple years ago I got pictures of a funnel cloud near my house from a storm that NEVER got warned!

His reply made me regret having replied at all. He is a clown. He can scream into the void next time.

Winds will decrease some over land just due to friction even if it’s not weakening. I’m sure it is also slowly starting to degrade some. But it takes a lot of energy to maintain a storm at this intensity. I wasn’t expecting rapid weakening for the reasons listed but I’m still surprised it’s been able to maintain this level of organization and intensity for this long. Even given the fact it’s just marsh.