psuhoffman

Here’s the thing about these warminista trolls….they imply that for us to get any “real” wintery period we first need a -epo/pan that dumps arctic cross polar air into the west and central US which lays down expansive snow cover, then after that we need a -nao to develop and the epo ridge to transition into a pna ridge shifting the cold east and locking it under the nao. Then if we are lucky and that happens as the mjo is slowly progressing into 8/1/2 but not too strongly and not too weak either and it has to stall and spend like a month in phase 8/1 and then we need the Stj to also be active and then if the SPV has a SSW and the tPV couples and with a lot of luck and timing and if no solar flare comes along to ruin it we have a slim chance at snow! Now here’s the thing…going on the last 7 years they’ve been mostly right. Yea we’ve lucked into random snows here and there but we haven’t really had a truly snowy period in there. Nothing like Jan/Feb 1996, Jan 2000, 2003, 2009/10, 2014, Feb/Mar 2015, Jan 2016. Since then the best we can do is mostly one off fluke snows in an otherwise crap pattern. This year is a good test. We finally have favorable pac forcing, along with a favorable qbo and solar. But who knows maybe they’re right and it is THAT hard to get real winter anymore. I doubt it. Even I’m not ready to go there. But if they are right, then it pointless. The things they imply need to happen to get snow…are just ridiculous and not worth tracking if true. But keep in mind Webber is from the Southeast I think which might explain his bias. It is that hard to get snow down there now. They were on the edge of being realistically able to get snow often even 50 years ago. It’s like a unicorn and leprechaun sighting for them mow. Maybe he is just expressing his frustration.

It’s not worth it. You can’t logic someone out of something they didn’t logic themselves into.

Maybe. But maybe 2010 skews our perception. Looking at the 5 best comps 1958 and 2010 the best blocking came in Feb or March. But 1966, 1987 and 2016 the best blocking was in January.

You can contribute anywhere you wish... but over the last 15 years the pattern that lead to every significantly snowy period or MECS+ level event showed up on guidance well past 10 days. Dec 2009, Feb 2010, Jan 2011, Feb 2014, Feb/Mar 2015, Jan 2016, March 2018 (yea that's it, its been that long since we had a legitimately snowy period or a region wide MECS level event) all those periods were being discussed and analyzed when they were 15 days away. Not a single one snuck up on us at like day 5. Maybe the discreet event within those windows did but the pattern that made those storms possible was on guidance way further out. Lately most of our snow has popped up in the medium range, but that is because we've spent 90% of the last 7 years in a horrible crap pattern for snow and the only snow we've had is when we just got really lucky and fluked into it. Yea those won't show up at long ranges. But if we are actually headed for a truly snowy period, as I think we might be, the inception of it should show itself on the long range guidance.

He knows all the pressure points

It's like the bat signal...

This is perception bias. At no point has the GEFS been objectively more accurate than the EPS. Actually, recently there have been some articles implying NCEP is thrilled that recent upgrades have simply made the GFS products more competitive but still clearly in 3rd place. This is by no means a shot at NCEP, they have made significant progress and advancements with their products and they have limitations the ECMWF does not. Yes, there were a few times the EPS showed a better pattern in the long range than the GEFS last winter and it was wrong. But there were also numerous times the GEFS showed a better pattern and was wrong, you just don't remember them because that is the status quo. Additionally most of the times the EPS was wrong it was also in opposition to the GEPS as well...this time the GEPS was in agreement. Finally, last winter the "better looks" also were in conflict with the base state and what we would expect given the enso. This year the better looks are in alignment of what it should look like. In addition to this statement being based on a biased interpretation of reality I also think its not a comparable situation.

I said Deb’s not trolls

The debs got quiet today

PSA When to worry about a post implying it’s not gonna snow The post is supported by sound logical analysis citing reliable data When not to worry about posts implying it won’t snow The post is supported by a random plot from a 300 hour operational run. The post cites absolutely no reliable data or evidence The post is based on feelings and emotional venting

2010 was very high on the analogs. It’s very possible we follow a similar progression just displaced 2 weeks later. Obviously I’m not expecting it to get to that extreme. That takes a lot of luck on top of a good pattern. 1958 followed a similar progression but our area got unlucky during the January window and had to wait for the mid Feb to mid March window to hit big. But there is a lot of history to two favorable periods with a reload. 1966 also, reload early Feb before another snow event late Feb.

It’s slower but hints of the AO/NAO starting to flip at the very end of the gefs also.

If a wave wants to secondary or go berserk once it’s east of our latitude I’m fine with that lol. But yea it would take perfect timing for an amplified system to work without blocking in a marginal airmass.

I travel a lot and the vibe is just so different when you get out of the area. It’s even a little better (wrt laid back) up here v closer to DC. I’ll definitely be going somewhere once the kids are gone. Still a ways away for me though. I agree with your thoughts. The pacific dominant pattern showing up is one where waves can work well. If the nao goes negative then we can start hecs hunting.

Bobs here it’s on

There was can kicking, but only about a week, which I suspected would be the case. Early January is the typical timing of a flip in ninos with a similar December longwave pattern. We might have a shot at something just before new years but it’s still likely just after that true cold starts to take hold. . But make no mistake guidance was originally rushing the pattern by about a week. 12 days ago this was the look for Xmas on the EPS. We still get to that but not until closer to New Years. I said we’re fine as long as we don’t get to new years without the pattern change eminent. BUT…if we did get to Jan with no sign of the pac backing off and a raging +AO history says it’s game over for getting a favorable long wave pattern this winter. I think some just don’t like having that hanging over our heads. But that wasn’t a prediction just a factual statement of what historical data says. In all past similar December Ninos the pattern either begins to flip by early January or it stays crap all winter.

That is incredibly skewed. There are some great years in there, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2014 and equally awful ones 1992, 1998, 2002. Not sure how such a diverse set is useful. Yea it skews warm overall but without any continuity wrt a tendency within the sample.

About what?

1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo.

The only Nino similar to this in terms of strength and composition along with a comparable QBO that didn’t feature extensive blocking was 1992. There are theories why that year was such an anomaly.

An epo dominant pattern could be more favorable for us in a Nino than a Nina. STJ! If we get a closer regime then do develop true blocking later…away we go! There’s no limit to how good they could get. Lots of ifs there of course but a big win is at least on the table this year for a change.

@CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre. This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine. Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some.

I think this is overrated, at least wrt getting snow. If you’re rooting for some 1977 or 1994 type arctic outbreak it’s important. We had a snowy 2 week period in Jan 2019 when there was no snow cover around us. I remember this same debate. I just got 4” and held snow cover for 4 days! It’s mid Dec. All we need is a slightly colder airmass in Jan-Feb for that to work for most here. I file this away with soil temps, sun angle, day before temps, pressure in Pittsburgh and other distractions that come up every year.

Improvements in the Atlantic on the EPS last 3 runs