psuhoffman

It needs to amp up quick but everything’s coming in further south this run. So if it can crank at all it could be good.

It was a slight improvement I think

Keep talking dirty

Sounds like they’re having a hard time coming up with a quality system. Oh well.

The euro and icon are kinda in between with a wider more uniform distribution from the initial frontal banding because it shifts north then no real coastal enhancement. That would be acceptable.

It’s best to ignore the NAM. Actually the totals further south seem safer. It’s all from the initial band. Further north it’s a combo of getting fringed by wave 1 and 2. That’s the kinda stuff that’s risky. NW of 95 has more upside but also more bust potential is the initial band sets up south like non NAM guidance and then the coastal doesn’t get going in time. Would leave places NW dry.

Anyone know what that RRFS experimental thing is? Hopefully is sucks because it’s the only thing that has looked consistently awful for our area.

I meant real snow. That’s like 50” of NAM snow

Just count the mm as inches

Why aren’t there more examples of those patterns leading to 30”+ winters here than?

Why in the Philly thread dead?

Yea I think so. A few days out models had some 20” runs for DC. Then it became more NS dominant. Guidance is picking up on that now instead of teasing us with some early stj dominant solutions.

thanks for clearing that up for us

This kinda reminds me of Jan 05. That sucked because we fooled ourselves into expecting 1-2 feet a couple days out. But maybe if we know going in our ceiling is probably 2-6 south to north it won’t be as annoying.

It’s south. That’s the most important thing imo right now. We can root for a slight amp up trend later. I’d rather need that than need to get it south.

I’m only to 120 but I think I like it a lot more than 0z

Plus if the SW can survive at all it has a chance to amp once it gets close to us as the trough splits and amplifies over us.

Well it seems south but…WAY weaker lol. I was thinking slightly weaker not totally squashed. But I’d still prefer this than amped north of us. We’ve seen things amp up some at the end. We almost never see a NS wave trend south at the very end.

TPV press could keep it under us at least. We need two kinds contradictory things. More amped but also a further south track of the SW. For now south is more important imo. We can get it juiced up a bit later. But if we go into the home stretch with the NS SW too far north it’s probably game over.

All over. Light coating.

There was nothing worth posting.

Gefs is much better. This is where I want it.

Because I analyze every snow threat. I did this same exorcise with every Baltimore snowstorm from 1948 to now! When they are good I analyze why. When they are bad I analyze why. And it’s hard for me to do that and ignore something I’m noticing which is things that used to work don’t seem to anymore as often! But when we get a snowstorm I’ll be all over analyzing the reasons why it is snowing. Think back. I was all over digging into looking at VV plots and moisture transport and instability and pinning down a deform when we got snow. The reason this is all I’m talking about lately is it’s not snowing at all dammit. I’d much rather be analyzing some mid level VV plot to pin down a 3”/hr death band. Have I been wrong about anything? Have we got some snowstorm when I was being a massive Deb about it? I will be wrong. I’ve been wrong before. I will again. But recently have I been a deb or have I just been correctly assessing the situation and giving accurate analysis? Do you want BS everything’s fine or the truth?

Consider this…why come in to the panic room, choose to respond, then complain about the discussion? Maybe it’s just frustration manifesting?

The tpv never fully gets to 50/50 until late and by then the block is retrograding too much. For this setup it’s still a little west as the NS wave crashes the west so it guarantees it dives in and we need phasing. It’s kinda bad luck we don’t get a stronger stj wave! But if we need to go it with a NS wave it takes more suppression to force that under us that a STJ wave. Different setups require different things.