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psuhoffman

StormMode Moderator
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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    And of course the obligatory fv3... granted it did kind of just win with the storm this week and has euro endorsement so...
  2. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Gfs misses us south with two snowstorms day 8-12 lol.
  3. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    I track all year for whatever kind of weather. When nothing interesting shows up i don’t say anything but I’m still watching.
  4. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Since the setup wasn’t that good most failed to notice the antecedent temperature profile was degrading...to the point that any frozen is a real low probability even if we get this to trend towards a more amped west track. Its also super low probability but if the guidance is even close with a pressing anomalous cold airmass as a cutoff low system tracks under us day 8-10 that is a better setup. Still unlikely but less unlikely I guess.
  5. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    We only get ~20”. The 40” area is down by DC. Next.
  6. I used to post up here years ago when I lived in PA for a while. The only reason I post more down in the Mid Atlantic was at the time I moved back their forum was way more active. During down times when nothing is imminent this thread can sometimes go dormant for a while. But I think I will bounce back and forth more often. The discussion up here seems to be more level headed right now.
  7. psuhoffman

    March Banter 2019

    I’m trying to hit a weekend that warms up. Ideally sunny and 45 degrees. Get it to soften up. Yea powder would be ideal but that’s the second best conditions imo. I had 4 weekends available. The first two I passed because it looked cold/dry. I won’t do that. I have 2 options left. Last week of March and first of April. Hopefully one of them is either warm or a late season dump. Either works. Cold/icy and I’ll just wait till next year. I’ll let conditions decide but my preference would be wildcat or sugarloaf
  8. psuhoffman

    March Banter 2019

    Nice. What were the snow conditions? How’s their base? I might head up to either wildcat or sugarloaf the last weekend in March.
  9. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    The March 27ish period actually has some possibility. It’s not likely. Maybe a 1/10 chance we see any frozen. But it’s not completely over unless you mean from a likely standpoint. I highly doubt we see anymore frozen but it’s not no chance yet.
  10. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    The fact it’s 10 days away is why it’s the “better” chance. Neither is likely to cause snow. But that setup being further away leaves more room for chaos so more chance something truly anomalous happens that guidance is missing. There are some hints on individual ensemble members. Like this...
  11. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    The period around the 26-28 is probably more likely for a fluke snow. Still highly unlikely but a lot of guidance is keeping a cutoff system under us and some has enough NS interaction to perhaps be cold enough if everything went perfect.
  12. psuhoffman

    March 17 Snow lol event

    We have created threads for less
  13. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    It’s not even just snow. Some people are being pissy about everything. Cold, wet, cloudy... and I’m not even actually rooting for any particular thing at this point. Honestly I’m not. I like interesting weather and I’m not gonna kick another snowstorm out of bed if it happens but I’m not really rooting for that. If we don’t get more snow I’m fine. If we do I’m fine. I’m just tracking whatever. Yea it would be great if we got weeks on end of 65-75 and sunny but I don’t actually have any control over that. Me talking about a storm threat doesn’t make it happen. My god I really don’t understand what is going on inside some people’s heads. And this isn’t directed at any one person and your right there are plenty of people not acting that way. I’m here all year. I like all kinds of interesting weather. I’m just annoyed with this telling people what to talk about crap. I never tell people not to talk about a thunderstorm threat in winter season. Or not to talk about a heat wave in December. People can talk about whatever weather they they want and we should discuss whatever interesting weather is happening regardless of the month. I post less outside snow season because a lot of the other stuff we track isn’t really a long lead tracking thing and I feel like I have less to contribute but I follow and post off and on. I just wish people would stop it with the telling people what to discuss or that they are wasting their time. If they don’t like the conversation just ignore it or start a new conversation about what they want to talk about.
  14. Do I think it will snow again after this week...no. But could it yes. It looks like a couple systems could cut across mostly cut off under the NS in the long range. Odds highly favor rain but it looks chilly and could one of those interact with the NS just enough to snow? Sure. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
  15. psuhoffman

    March 17 Snow lol event

    I’m completing my bunker now.
  16. psuhoffman

    March 17 Snow lol event

    People who look up at the wrong moment could be temporarily blinded by a flake.
  17. psuhoffman

    March 17 Snow lol event

    Flizzard conditions likely
  18. psuhoffman

    March 17 Snow lol event

    its happening!!!
  19. I should post here more. I like the mid Atlantic forum but it’s in full meltdown right now. Way to any people on edge and whiny about everything. The clipper looks to have such a narrow precipitation band associated with it that it’s kind of going to be a nowcast thing. The coastal is highly unlikely but not 100% dead. There is some fairly potent upper level energy diving through but the flow over the top is pretty progressive. If we could get the NS to dig in further west and allow more ridging in front maybe. Some runs are still close enough and lead times long enough that I’ll casually watch it but I don’t expect anything.
  20. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Think I will head over to the PA thread though.
  21. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    I generally agree with showme. One issue is the flow is really progressive over the top. One way to get something would be for a more energetic system out of the Midwest to do it by itself. It wouldnt be a coastal climber and only effect the latitude it exited at. But the coastal is running interference on even that. Absent that we would need some kind of phasing. Right now the northern stream is acting to suppress. But if something were to dive in further west and heights could rise some in front...it’s unlikely but not impossible. This time of year I would hesitate to just ignore such an energetic upper level system coming through. But there are problems preventing this from being a good setup att.
  22. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Well as losetoa pointed out even though we haven’t had purty op runs to drool over the h5 setup has remained at least somewhat close on some runs. Enough to keep an eye casually on it. It’s a long long shot but not totally dead. I’m just not talking about it much because a few people are annoying the crap out of me every time anyone tries to discuss winter potential lately.
  23. psuhoffman

    March Banter 2019

    @North Balti Zen as for my politics...as long as they aren’t hurting anyone I respect everyone’s right to live however they want and say whatever they want and believe whatever they want! And I am passionate about that. But I have no time for this safe space nonsense. And if your going to dish it you need to be able to take it. Just because I’m liberal doesn’t mean I am soft. I want to make the world a better place but reality is harsh and you have to be able to suck it up a little. That said I don’t actually wish you any harm. You have the right to disagree with me. You have the right to not like me. And I still don’t wish anything but the best for you and everyone else. But I have the right to disagree with you and say what I think also. You don’t seem to respect that!
  24. psuhoffman

    March Banter 2019

    You could have made your case without bringing SAD into it when that has nothing to do with this. I still wouldn’t agree with you and I think a little light hearted fun isn’t a bad thing but I would have respected your argument more. As for the rest...sorry your not going to shut down my right to defend myself and refute your arguments against me with this passive aggressive tactic. If your going to comment about me I have the right to reply. Your not going to guilt me into silence with this strategy. No one is piling on you. You have done this before. You say something and then when someone disagrees with you you act like they are attacking you. People have the right to disagree with you and say so!
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