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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    MD is kind of dry slotted after the snow thump on the NAM so only 1-2” of sleet but a ton down in VA
  2. psuhoffman
  3. psuhoffman
    It’s fine. 10” in DC. 12” IAD. 13” up here.
  4. psuhoffman
    Trick, the FV3 is almost always similar to the gfs inside 48 hours. Similar to the rgem/ggem. So if you want to know about what the gfs is going to look like just look at the FV3 now.
  5. psuhoffman
    It’s because the warm layer is at its greatest extent there and thin and it’s wobbling based on rates. Around 20z we’re in a dry slot then it sinks south during some heavier precip
  6. psuhoffman
    @wxmeddler I think bc you let us know about the Dr U convo you were gonna be low. I sorta expected that too, unfairly.
  7. psuhoffman
    Looks like the gfs only the CAM version
  8. psuhoffman
    Not saying it’s right but the range thing isn’t why because it does things that lead to this result in just 24 hours. Now the it sucks issue might be why.
  9. psuhoffman
    I actually like the 18z rgem slightly better than 12z. WTF I’m out. I need to find something less stressful and more reliable. Oh I know I’ll start rooting for the local sports teams!
  10. psuhoffman
    Ok rgem calms my soul some
  11. psuhoffman
    I had hoped 12z meant we finally stopped the bleeding. But what’s come out so far 18z resumed what had been the trend prior to 12z and in most cases lost all progress from 12z and ended worse than their 6z runs! hopefully rgem/gfs/euro come in bucking this trend but so far a major amp trend with the primary across 18z
  12. psuhoffman
  13. psuhoffman
    These 18z runs continued that trend...that wasn't the issue...the problem was around hour 36 they go berserk with the primary to our west and amp the system like crazy. A little better high and damming won't offset that. That's like throwing a couple poker chips on one side of the scale and then dropping a piano on the other.
  14. psuhoffman
    wow what did it show 12z for this area then because it cut our snow in half on the publicly available maps lol
  15. psuhoffman
    problem is that's it...the warm layer has blasted all the way into PA by then...so pretty much we all end up with 6-7" which is fine for DC but for places NW of 95 it took away 6" of snow from the last run that had 10-12" in places
  16. psuhoffman
    NAMs don't bother me, the jump around run to run like crazy...but what do you know about the RRFS because it looked great at 12z and just want WAY WAY north... I don't know enough about it to know whether that should bother us or not
  17. psuhoffman
    Hopefully the RRFS sucks
  18. psuhoffman
    Both NAM's were colder and better out to 36 hours then went off the rails...once they got into less reliable ranges.
  19. psuhoffman
    High was a little further south with better damming signal into the mid atlantic this run. Minor but we only need minor improvements here
  20. psuhoffman
    includes sleet
  21. psuhoffman
    Finishes looking at the HRRR
  22. psuhoffman
    This is what I am thinking
  23. psuhoffman
    I definitely understand taking a step back. And I hope the health thing has been resolved! The kids are doing good, getting too big too fast. Hope all is well... maybe I'll do another BBQ this summer...it's been too long!
  24. psuhoffman
    You came to the right place... you will find everyone in here is very sympathetic to the plight of Boston
  25. psuhoffman
    I think the euro improvement, when taken along with all the rest of the 12z guidance...was more than just noise. Keep in mind we are not going to see some massive jump every 6 hours from here on it, not on the euro anyways...not this close in. But the changes I see on the euro are consistent with the changes I saw across the rest of the 12z guidance, so I think even though its an incremental change...its safe to say it's not just noise.
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