psuhoffman

That’s the one I’m thinking about. And I had that exact same thought. There was one other that wouldn’t have been as big but might have been a 2-4” type snow had it been a little colder. But it was just so warm all winter that even when a perfect track wave came along it didn’t matter.

I appreciate it. Really. Yea the situation is probably making it harder. I see her 3 or 4 times a week. Exchanges or things we do together for the kids. I kept the house because the kids love it here. We do things that she used to be a part of. Camping trips. Ski trips. The beach. It’s hard to move on from something when you’re surrounded by it. It also doesn’t help that she is an amazing mom and wonderful person. So it’s not like I can hate her. Thanks. Yea I’ve given up on waiting for it to get any easier. Just had to learn to cope with what it is. It’s not as bad as this is probably making it sound. Most of the time I’m fine. I’m not miserable all the time or anything. But that memory hit me. Had a rough moment I guess.

You trying to get me in trouble? Honest answer I don’t think this winter has much to do with the elephant in the room. Cold dry winters happened in the past. I still really doubt we manage to avoid snow completely but if we do it’s bad luck imo. However, when “the elephant” is making other winters worse. Winters where we might have lucked into 12” or 17” for the season in the past from some lucky perfect track just cold enough snowstorms in an otherwise mediocre pattern but now those are rain and so we end up with a winter with 3” or 6” total and so when we waste a cold one it feels even worse. 1997 was an example. The one good snowstorm I remember that winter (like 8” in northern VA) was from some perfect track wave in an otherwise warm period when temps where like 33 degrees during the storm and it was in the 50s on either side of it. Fast forward to 2023 There were a couple waves that took a perfect track that winger but it was just a little too warm. 36 degree rain. Was that a repeat or a 1997 type winter but now…maybe that one snowstorm is rain and that winter is almost totally snowless which adds to the frustration and then makes a cold dry winter even worse.

It’s ok. It’s not new. She left 4 years ago. I should be over it by now. ETA: ok that sounded pathetic. Most days aren’t so bad. But that reference brought up some really good memories which are bittersweet now.

They still do! They both ski now. We go sledding and play in the snow every storm. Unfortunately, I’m not still with their mom.

If we get a 30 day mean like that and it doesn’t snow at all it’s time for a new hobby

I don't remember that one as much...but...I was happily married at the time, and we both had 2 weeks off work...so I was...umm....busy

Just reading that makes me feel like I need second hand therapy

Not only that...but when that threat in early March failed he said it "ruined the winter"

It's complicated in a comparatively simplistic way

Oddly enough once the snow stops he doesn't care. He will complain 3 days after a HECS though if there is nothing else to track on the models

Cold dry winters were always a thing.... but it hurts that much more when 80% of our winters are warm now...we can't afford to waste cold ones.

This... the trough is there on our big storm composite look...which as you say is why our big storms tend to come at the end of cold periods and are usually followed by moderation...because the trough there temporarily creates the perfect longwave configuration for a big amplification along the east coast but also leads to warmer air invading the CONUS shortly after...but it doesn't necessarily always have to torch or the warmup doesn't have to last...depends how things evolve from there. But if we do finally get a big snowstorm I'm gonna hit the first person who says "But it all melted a week later" over the head with a tack hammer.

So this is actually pretty darn close to what the composite looked like for the analogs I used for my winter forecast. But the snowfall results through mid January were better across those analogs. This isn't bad...yes its a dry look...we're on the backside of the trough, its definitely not perfect. But predominantly -AO/NAO, a poleward pacific ridge, not a crazy hostile PNA for a change...this isn't a shutout look.

I still think eventually we get some decent snow. But we have had a workable to somewhat favorable longwave pattern most of the winter season and have thus far largely wasted it. It's very frustrating.

a snow map from the GFS is going to be hilarious

How to interpret the guidance Only the... ICON shows snow=it's not gonna snow but at least you probably won't even notice GFS shows snow=it's not gonna snow and you know it GGEM shows snow=it's not gonna snow but your mind will linger on that one time it was right ECMWF shows snow=it's not gonna snow but it's gonna hurt a bit more If every single model shows snow.... It's still not going to snow but a piece of your soul is going to die when it doesn't.

Agree. They aren't a useless tool IMO, you can glean some things from them as long as you look under the hood and understand the why behind them But that isn't what most people do, they just look at some 15 day mean and make judgements.

Which means nothing without knowing the specifics. The snow means aren’t useless but the raw numbers and a change like that are. For example did the mean lose an inch from some crazy outlier members on the threats over the next 7 days? Thats pretty meaningless.

This. He is more grounded, for example, on his Facebook page. He lets his tortured snow weenie soul vent here. I think maybe it’s therapy for him. I don’t mind it. Easy enough to ignore when it becomes too much. But I get why some get annoyed.

That’s been my favorite “window” for a while but was trying not to deb on the threats before. Besides it’s too far out to say anything other than I like the general pattern.

Verification proves each run is more likely to be accurate now, however there is more chaos imo. 20 years ago I think I was able to use the models more functionally. They weren’t more likely to be correct but they had more consistent fail patterns you could adjust for. Now they fail in different ways that are impossible to predict run to run.

At a birthday party and then watching eagles game so I can’t look up a ton of stuff but off the top of my head this reminds me of a storm in January 2001. That one worked out. IIRC it was about 3-4” around DC and northern VA and 4-8” across much of Maryland. And if my memory serves very similar. It was around Jan 20 2001 I think.

Yes but that system had an STJ wave associated with it. That was a miller a/b hybrid. It definitely phased late. So similar but not a pure NS miller b like this. These are even more precarious for us.

The best sign is someone said JB thinks it’s going to be warm.