psuhoffman

Why does it seem “strength” is becoming a more valued characteristic than kindness or empathy? What good is strength without kindness. Actually if someone is a bad person isn’t it better if they are weak!

That must have been a monster storm on guidance.

Not liking it and the annual need to have a bitch fest about it are two different things. There are many things I don’t like but if it’s normal come to accept and just deal with. Typically when you complain a lot it’s something new or unusual. It’s odd that every year like clock work we have the same exact discussion

Yes but that comes typically in later March and April. Early March is usually pretty chilly and often has some snow. Kinda like December. We can get 60 degree days in Dec also but it’s not normal. Or it wasn’t until recently lol. But every year some act like it’s weird or some horrible abomination they can’t abide if it’s not 70 the first week of March. The April thing i get.

But ya know what, it’s a free country still, I think… so ya can feel however you want. Me, I’m enjoying every flake I can get. I don’t care what time of year. Is all snow and it’s going to melt no matter when it falls.

Now that I get

3 weeks yes. Getting snow to stick around 3 or 4 days it’s not a crazy difference. But my point is almost all our snow is marginal sloppy storms that melt pretty fast after. That’s like 80% of our snow climo. So kicking March snow out of bed because it’s just like most of our January and Feb snow seems weird. Are we gonna kick all the sloppy 3-6” storms we get in mid winter that melt right away too? Funny I didn’t hear a lot of people doing that last week when they got a 6” snow that was going to wash away the next day! And if we did we would average like 3” a year if we only found snowstorms that are cold smoke and last a week after. That happens almost never even mid winter. I dunno seems like some people are chasing a mirage or have this unrealistic image of what Jab Feb snow is like here.

And once in a blue moon we can get snowcover to stick around a week or so in March also. 2014 was an example for some places. Yes it’s more rare but people act like we’re Vermont and we have a foot of cold smoke that lasts weeks in January and March is mud season. Our whole winter frankly sucks for snow 90% of the time and we need to take snow whenever and however we can.

Ya and how normal is that? It was the longest run of snowcover since 2010 for most locations. 80% of our snow is like last week, melts or washed away within 48 hours by a 50 degree sunny day or rain.

Plot twist: BOTH. the M.C. Escher run

@Ji and the crazy part is we rarely get snow and most of it melts right away even in the middle of winter because we’re not Vermont. But every year I hear March snow sucks because “it’s hard to get snow and it melts”. As if that’s unique to March.

Our snow climo sucks enough without kicking 20% of it because you can’t handle that it melts

The most predictable thing ever is the annual complaining and moaning as soon as we get to late February.

If I understand the way the AIFS works...it would be difficult to have a meso scale version because meso scale feature are radically different in each and ever event based on a lot of tiny variables that will never be identical across general analogs. But that is fine IMO, if analog based AI models can get us a general idea of what the larger synoptic features will be...I think basic meterology and climo knowledge can fill in the gaps. If you show me a MSLP, H8 and H5 map and tell me these are accurate, most skilled meteorologists can fill in the details and be pretty accurate.

You could by why would you want to

It was difficult getting to the food truck, there was so much virga in the way. Feet and feet of virga!

I think tonight 0z the north trend begins!

The nina snow anomaly map has a major minimum right over us for a reason...we are stuck between streams in these patters, so I am not saying that skepticism isn't warranted...but there are fluked within patterns and we are at a range where not much can be taken about a specific outcome yet...the general idea will start to hone in around day 8 or so....we really did start to see the idea of this coastal around day 8...then around day 4-5 the models got the details and have been locked in since. If it still looks like a slider at 100 hours I'll throw in the towel.

Yea like if KC on that one play had just...oh wait, nevermind.

yea...usually we are stuck rooting for a bunch of things to go right for us to get a good snowstorm...this was a situation where we just needed a bunch of things not to go wrong...and they did.

This is really valuable... but nothing works 100%, I wish it did it would make this so much easier. But seasonal trends arent 100%, there are anomalies within the seasonal norms, I did jack that one time mid january for example. And one model might do great with a storm then utter fail the next time. I made a critical error trusting the Euro way too much because it was really really really good with several storms in a row, including the one that hit New England last weekend. It was dead on perfect with that from like 8 days out. So when it was showing a big snow around day 5 I was thinking...money. But its performance on the last few storms did not mean it was going to nail this one. So I agree the AI should become a big part of the equation...but nothing is 100% of it, we make the mistake of relying too much on whatever proved best "the last time" and forgetting that over the long run none of our tools is perfect taken by itself and we need to factor in everything and even then "good luck" lol

No originally Feb 20th was "the first opportunity" in what I thought was a favorable period from Feb 20-March 15th, but when it got to about 10 days out I did jump "all in" on that window so I can't say now...no no I wasn't wrong. I really really liked the look...at at the 30k foot level it was really good. I mean if you just anyone these 2 panels, I mean honeslty this looks really really close to how a lot of our big snows. If we are being uber picky maybe its more MECS than HECS...the PNA ridge isn't quite as bonkers as we would want due to the weak kicker, the H5 track is slightly NW of idea which might actually make me think its a snow to mix event if I was just looking at the h5...but if you just showed me these daily plots I would expect to flip to the surface and see a nice storm for us. We got unlucky with some of the finer details that just went all wrong. Weak SS wave that ran away out ahead, ULL that had a little too much depth possibly and acted like a kicker v an amplifier. Split wave structure that destructively interfered with itself. The ULL didn't really separate fully from the PV which flattened the flow in front. And I think we could have overcome most of those small issues...just not all of them at once. They were all very minor flaws...a stronger SS wave and it wouldn't have mattered. A more consolidated wave without a duel wave structure and we would have been ok. A full detatch of the ULL TPV split and the weaker SS wave would have worked. There were actually more ways to win than fail for once in this setup and we managed to pull a fail out of the hat even with the deck stacked in our favor. That's what makes this one hurt so much.

Looks good for VA beach

Shame it actually looks and feels like a big snow is coming out. Probably because the upper low is so far NW there is a good amount of moisture streaming way NW of the low. It’s not the typical smoking cirrus look.

What you talking bout. 38” or bust!