psuhoffman

Thank you. I really appreciated the reply. Seems we are much closer on thinking and you can’t and shouldn’t have to justify others decisions lol. I was just perplexed because while there was some model support for that 5-10 call it relies on a decent amount of accumulation today. The NAMs and the SREF and RAP all showed what would justify a 5–10 call. But they all had accumulating snow today. The forecast went non accumulating today which was correct but still higher totals. Seemed like a weird combo of two opposite scenarios. Maybe a hedge?

Respectful question. Not trying to be critical just trying to understand rationale. My forecast is 5-10”. But it’s clear it’s too warm today and snow won’t start to stick until after 4pm or so. And the forecast kinda indicates this. But it’s also been clear to me there won’t be enough QPF to reach those totals if we lose all the precip today! I’ve been doing this math for 24 hours now and not getting it because the model runs that showed 5-10” also snowed 3-5” of that falling today right now! And the runs that didn’t only have me getting 3-5” not 5-10. There has never been anything that shows no snow until this evening AND 5-10”. There isn’t enough qpf left after 5pm for that. I only see about .3-.4 qpf across guidance after 5pm. So I guess I’m confused. What’s the thinking on the 5-10” forecast with all the snow coming tonight when everything I see indicates half the storm is over by then and only .3-.4 qpf left tonight up here.

Probably rate dependent south of 70 given the marginal wet bulbs until after 3pm. If we get a steady heavy enough precip coverage it would help.

Tell her not to date any of them

Was gonna say good news is temps look like the colder guidance right now. 32 at my house. Warmer guidance had me at 35-36 right now.

He’s having a rough week. Let him have his cup of copium

Being upset and freaking out are not the same thing. People act like making a somewhat negative comment on here is being unhinged. We’ve seen some unhinged recently. Me saying I’m upset at missing a hecs by a narrow margin is just typical frustration. People do worse when a sports team they root for loses.

HECS opportunities are rare and I’ve missed the last 4 chances over the last 8 years by very narrow margins. I missed 20” snows by 20 miles twice to the NW and twice to the NE and yes I’m a little bent right now because I think the writing is on the wall that’s going to happen again tomorrow! I had hoped maybe with the trends we’d get the one last west tend needed but Im starting to get the sinking feeling the heavy snows end up just NE of me. And yes I’m upset about it I’m allowed to be I’m not gonna bunch furry animals like Bob but I’m upset ok

@CAPE for the last time I’m not saying we can’t get snow when everything goes perfect. If a deform crushed us with 2” qpf. But if I need marginal to work. Thats when we’re bleeding results away and you know that. Not sure why you think it’s funny. I don’t. It is what it is. But I don’t find it funny at all.

You joke but when my area gets results from a miller b it’s ratio dependent. I never out qpf places east of me but I’ve pulled off 15-20” from .75-1” qpf before. If I get 5” of slop from .7 qpf because it’s 33-34 degrees that is very much related to the issue you’re making fun of.

Here’s the thing, I need to decide whether to come home a day early. Here’s my bars. Less than 6” and I’ll be really really pissed I bothered to come home. 6-10 I’ll call it even. 10+ I’d be super pissed I didn’t come home. Help me make a decision lol.

I’m gonna NEED someone to promise me this isnt going to be another case where we spent a week tracking, got excited, convinced ourselves this might be different, then watch Philly get 20” while we get 3” of slop. I need that right now.

It’s super early but NAM is more negative and deeper right from the jump. Might be about to do a thing.

Pna?

SREF has been predicting the next run pretty well recently. 9z moved west

Why are the Icon and rgem soooo warm! It’s Feb with a sub 990 low off the Delmarva and moderate precip. And it’s close to 40! WTF

@GreyHat can’t even blame me this time I laid off ya. But when it’s everyone else maybe it’s just you!

Sorry if it’s been posted but the SREF said folks this morning Went from this…. to this!

There is some truth to this (can't combine qpf and cold). Think about it...the EPO is the biggest tele for cold, but has absolutely not statistically significant correlation to significant snowstorms. Why? Because very cold patters are often dry! Think about how rare snowstorms are with temps below 20 degrees! I can remember all of them...because there aren't that many! Most of our snow comes near or just below freezing because historically our best snowfall patterns were split flow regimes where the northern stream was out the damn way but that also means no arctic air! A ton of our snow had to work with marginal home grown typical winter air not arctic air. If we are only cold enough to snow in true arctic airmasses we lose all those storms. We haven't lost them all yet...but we are losing quite a few which is why DC's average snowfall has gone from 25" to 14" in the last 100 years!

My Daughters name is Nora Lynn

They had it for about 24 hours then lost it. It’s kinda a delicate balance. Everyone is just focused on snow maps and omg and model bashing but the phasing at about 24 hours is delicate balance between the two waves and just enough energy making it around the base makes the whole trough end up negative later on by putting enough energy out front to tilt the whole thing on its axis. But we’d normally never notice the relatively minor interplay of vort energy taking place if it wasn’t impacting a possible snowstorm. The result is hugely different but the cause is a relatively minor difference in handling how those 2 SWs interact within the trough early on.

Peace. Enjoy all the snow maps and “omg” posts