psuhoffman

So you hung on through 4 weeks of 2 god awful no hope shutout patterns....and now a week away from a change to at least a workable if not legit good pattern you want to jump? Ok

Wrt the snow maps, the more sophisticated ones on Wxbell and some other outlets are getting better. The TT ones are still pretty bad wrt ice. The kuchera especially does a better job not over accumulating sleet compared to years past. Snow maps will never be as good as plain old analysis combined with common sense climo adjustment to the NWP but at least they aren’t spitting out crazy stupid maps that make it onto twitter. Now their only semi crazy stupid. Progress! As for the pattern...I agree odds increase with each wave after this week. But there are some pretty crazy blocks combined with strong highs showing up. They shift around every run but time those up right and any one of the waves starting next weekend could deliver a flush hit. But I do agree each wave after Sat has an increasing probability. The long range looks like chaos incarnate but in a good way. Super charger blocks and highs shifting all over North America. Lest we forget it takes anomalous stuff to get a good snow here usually so I’ll my chances with the crazy.

Ever since the model page upgrade on wxbell the gefs snow algorithm doesn’t seem to show non snow as 10-1 snow as much as before. They are still not the best tool to use but they don’t seem to be super crazy exaggerated compared to the eps due to 20” of snow from a low 500 miles NW of us like before.

Next weekend has always been marginal and completely dependent on how details wrt CAD and initial WAA moisture feed set up. But it’s not a great longwave pattern. It would have to break right. After that everything looks the same as outlined yesterday. Next week has a couple threats consistent across guidance. This is a classic look... the look at the end is rare but one that often produces. It wasn’t responsible for a huge number of the snow events I looked at but it was a healthy number considering how rare that type of epo ridge aligned over the top combined with a broad SW to NE conus trough like that is. If we’re going to roll without NAO help after the blocking period day 8-12 that’s the best look to do it. Other than an NAO block that’s the next best look I could draw up. Geps ans gefs both generally support the same ideas for the next 2 weeks and as @Bob Chill has said every piece of guidance we have continues this look into and through February. But seeing the ensembles show clear signs the STJ is likely to continue to be a player and undercut the pna ridge week two and beyond is a great development. The fear with the cfs look is cold dry with only cutters able to turn the corner. The look being shown on the ensembles around 2 weeks which would be more likely to see details than the seasonal guidance relaxes those fears imo.

Remember all those times we talked about where we need an epo right to be centered to get snow. Like this... signs of an active stj cutting under doesn’t hurt either.

Gefs slightly worse for next weekend but not a significant change. After that is says suppression is the bigger issue for the day 10/11 threat. Shifted the trough axis slightly too far southeast. But for day 10 it’s noise. Big signal for the threat as the blocking relaxes day 12-14. Goes bonkers with the HL ridge around day 10

There are 3 discreet windows showing on the gefs and eps. The epo block and ridge across Canada is forcing the system next weekend further south than you would typically expect where it starts out. After that a threat early the following week. Look at the ridge axis out west as the next system dives in. Good ridge bridge over the top. Classic look. Last threat is around day 15. Southern branch feature that cuts under the western ridge and across as the blocking relaxes. Classic.

Eps Mean for next weekends storm.

Eps is another weenie run. Better for next weekend. Significantly. Good looks after also. Supports the idea of HL blocking day 8-13

That one will have a hard time accumulating on roads in the district during the day! We will need some heavy rates to overcome solar, which by then the sun will be like 3” from our face according to Avant Regent.

Euro goes berserk with HL blocking day 7-10 also.

This is the weenies snow mean for a run when all the snow is week 2.

This look right here showes up A LOT as a precursor to mid atlantic snows when I did my examination of each one. A strong ridge near Baffin with ridge bridge fading to a ridge west of the Hudson was a pretty common snow look. After that @showmethesnowpointed this out and gefs continues to show the jet undercutting the western ridge which is a much better look that a full latitude ridge.

The snow in my yard that just melted was from a storm most guidance had as a cutter at day 5. Just pointing that out for those that are making definitive decisions for next weekend based on any one run right now. (Not talking about you). The trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay is the best chance to turn this into a winter event.

I knew you were kidding. Im not totally shocked to see the suddenly flip up top. It fits the analogs that did turn better. It also fits phase 7. The same processes that are helping progress the pac ridge also pressure the TPV. So it makes sense. Just highlights the nwp can’t resolve the HL past about day 10 with any accuracy.

I’m sure you will get a calm level headed response.

The gfs had a suppressed storm most runs of the last couple days there. Don’t worry too much about discreet features at day 12 on an op run.

I’m going to spend the rest of the day worried about the Uber block cutter on the op gfs at day 12

2 weeks ago when I looked at past similar pac patterns and how they progressed it struck me how almost all the comps that evolved to a good look were accompanied by at least a period of blocking in the AO or NAO domain during the transition. A few days ago when the guidance showed the pattern progressing to an Epo ridge without a flip in the NAM state I was like “that’s not how it’s happened before but that works”. Now suddenly a more historically supported progression is showing up on guidance. As usual climo beats guidance at long range most of the time.

Thanks, you saved me the time of counting them all.

Here’s a version for those that don’t enjoy trips to the chiropractor

Allen was hitting this in the SE forum so I don’t want to take any credit but for whatever reason (likely the fact January has the broadest most stable wavelengths of winter) phase 7 just in January is actually a really good phase. It’s temps are skewed warm on the seasonal charts because in Feb it becomes a warm phase and 8 takes on a similar h5 look phase 7 has in January. But assuming we can get into 7 in January and then by February it’s either moved on to 8 or simple dies that’s a good look. Phase 7 h5 composite for January. Sorry but I will not pay for the chiropractic services you may require to see the image.

It starts as a brief period of snow before a flip to rain...in extreme northern Vermont.

Who is hugging anything. I see a lot of analysis of the different looks with discussion of possible variations we might see and all the options. But yes the NWP has a part in that. How do you suggest we analyze the long range? Fuzzy caterpillars and wives tales about fog?

I am EVERYONE!!!!