psuhoffman

Next weekend has always been marginal and completely dependent on how details wrt CAD and initial WAA moisture feed set up. But it’s not a great longwave pattern. It would have to break right. After that everything looks the same as outlined yesterday. Next week has a couple threats consistent across guidance. This is a classic look... the look at the end is rare but one that often produces. It wasn’t responsible for a huge number of the snow events I looked at but it was a healthy number considering how rare that type of epo ridge aligned over the top combined with a broad SW to NE conus trough like that is. If we’re going to roll without NAO help after the blocking period day 8-12 that’s the best look to do it. Other than an NAO block that’s the next best look I could draw up. Geps ans gefs both generally support the same ideas for the next 2 weeks and as @Bob Chill has said every piece of guidance we have continues this look into and through February. But seeing the ensembles show clear signs the STJ is likely to continue to be a player and undercut the pna ridge week two and beyond is a great development. The fear with the cfs look is cold dry with only cutters able to turn the corner. The look being shown on the ensembles around 2 weeks which would be more likely to see details than the seasonal guidance relaxes those fears imo.

Remember all those times we talked about where we need an epo right to be centered to get snow. Like this... signs of an active stj cutting under doesn’t hurt either.

Gefs slightly worse for next weekend but not a significant change. After that is says suppression is the bigger issue for the day 10/11 threat. Shifted the trough axis slightly too far southeast. But for day 10 it’s noise. Big signal for the threat as the blocking relaxes day 12-14. Goes bonkers with the HL ridge around day 10

There are 3 discreet windows showing on the gefs and eps. The epo block and ridge across Canada is forcing the system next weekend further south than you would typically expect where it starts out. After that a threat early the following week. Look at the ridge axis out west as the next system dives in. Good ridge bridge over the top. Classic look. Last threat is around day 15. Southern branch feature that cuts under the western ridge and across as the blocking relaxes. Classic.

Eps Mean for next weekends storm.

Eps is another weenie run. Better for next weekend. Significantly. Good looks after also. Supports the idea of HL blocking day 8-13

That one will have a hard time accumulating on roads in the district during the day! We will need some heavy rates to overcome solar, which by then the sun will be like 3” from our face according to Avant Regent.

Euro goes berserk with HL blocking day 7-10 also.

This is the weenies snow mean for a run when all the snow is week 2.

This look right here showes up A LOT as a precursor to mid atlantic snows when I did my examination of each one. A strong ridge near Baffin with ridge bridge fading to a ridge west of the Hudson was a pretty common snow look. After that @showmethesnowpointed this out and gefs continues to show the jet undercutting the western ridge which is a much better look that a full latitude ridge.

The snow in my yard that just melted was from a storm most guidance had as a cutter at day 5. Just pointing that out for those that are making definitive decisions for next weekend based on any one run right now. (Not talking about you). The trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay is the best chance to turn this into a winter event.

I knew you were kidding. Im not totally shocked to see the suddenly flip up top. It fits the analogs that did turn better. It also fits phase 7. The same processes that are helping progress the pac ridge also pressure the TPV. So it makes sense. Just highlights the nwp can’t resolve the HL past about day 10 with any accuracy.

I’m sure you will get a calm level headed response.

The gfs had a suppressed storm most runs of the last couple days there. Don’t worry too much about discreet features at day 12 on an op run.

I’m going to spend the rest of the day worried about the Uber block cutter on the op gfs at day 12

2 weeks ago when I looked at past similar pac patterns and how they progressed it struck me how almost all the comps that evolved to a good look were accompanied by at least a period of blocking in the AO or NAO domain during the transition. A few days ago when the guidance showed the pattern progressing to an Epo ridge without a flip in the NAM state I was like “that’s not how it’s happened before but that works”. Now suddenly a more historically supported progression is showing up on guidance. As usual climo beats guidance at long range most of the time.

Thanks, you saved me the time of counting them all.

Here’s a version for those that don’t enjoy trips to the chiropractor

Allen was hitting this in the SE forum so I don’t want to take any credit but for whatever reason (likely the fact January has the broadest most stable wavelengths of winter) phase 7 just in January is actually a really good phase. It’s temps are skewed warm on the seasonal charts because in Feb it becomes a warm phase and 8 takes on a similar h5 look phase 7 has in January. But assuming we can get into 7 in January and then by February it’s either moved on to 8 or simple dies that’s a good look. Phase 7 h5 composite for January. Sorry but I will not pay for the chiropractic services you may require to see the image.

It starts as a brief period of snow before a flip to rain...in extreme northern Vermont.

Who is hugging anything. I see a lot of analysis of the different looks with discussion of possible variations we might see and all the options. But yes the NWP has a part in that. How do you suggest we analyze the long range? Fuzzy caterpillars and wives tales about fog?

I am EVERYONE!!!!

Very unusual but the euro op was kinda doing it too. When under attacks by waves the tpv has been easy to beat around this year. probkem has been at times the mid latitude patterns set up perfectly to let the tpv sit over the pole and spin. Maybe that’s a sign the qbo is helping a little. Last year was a reverse when wave after wave would blast the tpv and the guidance at range would develop monster blocking but the tpv wouldn’t budge and kinda just chuckle at us like “that all you got”.

It was mostly my fault. I’ve seen that pac look destroy winters a few times and I got spooked. I was wrong (hopefully). The numbers do support the danger of that look but by presenting it the way I did it obviously conveyed more doom than warranted. I did post the good and bad outcomes and said that the bad was only likely if the look persisted past mid month but it was obvious I was nervous and that spooked the resident weenies. I’ll take the blame for that one. ETA: any suggestions what I should do with my reaper check?

A central pac ridge that locks in longer than a couple weeks yes. If it’s long enough to cause a strong anomaly centered north of Hawaii but not into the epo region for the whole month of January over 80% of those years went on to a horrible February also. When I threw that nugget out there the look was still too far out to see past it. It was unknown if it was transient or not. Now it looks transient and so not a big deal. But if that pac look had locked in for weeks by late January it would be very unlikely we go on to much improvement according to past instances. Thankfully that fate has been averted for the time being.