uofmiami

My younger brother takes Xanax and has a couple of drinks, seems to make him mellow for flights. Years ago I had to hold him in his seat once as we were taking off, as he had a panic attack before he was diagnosed with Graves disease, poor kid wanted me to punch him and knock him out.

OKX website links to this page now: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KFOK&table=1&num=168&banner=off

1.75" for the storm total in Muttontown

35.9 for the morning low in Muttontown.

Yeah I love that we can be in Huntington in no time and can enjoy the restaurants/shops, etc there.

I agree with that, a reason why we purchased a house in Syosset 3 months ago. Wife liked Roslyn, but I convinced her for our family Syosset was the better move.

$1 & a dream (lotto), haha.

Some of the imagery on twitter from it is amazing. It can't go operational soon enough. Amazing weather satellite.

Around 3/15 onward is when you need heavy intensity during the day for snow to stick due to sun angle on LI and NYC area. Regardless, that sun angle issue will come up year after year that come 3/1 the sun is our enemy for snow.

Probably it's because we can get high wind, heavy rain and coastal flooding outside of winter, everyone wants frozen precip in winter for the most part.

3 in Muttontown this morning.

Measured 9" at the house in Syosset (N of Train Station).

Great I have to drive over there from Great Neck to shovel out the house I closed on over there, LOL!

I'll be lucky if I have over 4" on the ground by the end of this weekend. I don't see 12" of snow at all around here. It's all potential but reality will be much less.

January should be +1.5, this pattern of cold shots for 3 or so days then back to above normal looks to continue through January IMO.

13.8 for the morning low in Muttontown.

This is hilarious stuff, can't wait until January 4th.

Temp dropped 10 degrees (57F to 47F) in 30 min in Muttontown, gusted to 38MPH with frontal passage.

Growing season is done, 11/25: NOUS41 KOKX 250636 PNSOKX NJZ006-NYZ072>075-176-178-179-251100- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 136 AM EST Fri Nov 25 2016 ...The growing season has ended across southern Nassau County in New York, the five boroughs of New York City, and Hudson County in New Jersey... Although a widespread freeze has not yet occurred across the area, it is now more than two weeks after the average first freeze date for southern Nassau County, New York City, and Hudson County New Jersey. The frost and freeze program has now been ended across all areas in southeast New York, northeast New Jersey, and southern Connecticut. The frost and freeze program will resume during the growing season in the Spring 2017.

I would exclude Nassau County, once you get past Glen Cove Road on Northern Blvd, temps plummet heading East.

Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17. La Niña conditions were observed during October, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in early November stretching across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the Niño1+2 region, the Niño region indices remained negative over the last month, with the latest weekly value of the Niño-3.4 index at -0.8°C [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content also remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting below-average temperatures at depth [Fig. 4]. Convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The lower-level easterly winds were weakly enhanced near and west of the International Date Line, and anomalously westerly upper-level winds were mainly west of the International Date Line. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected weak La Niña conditions. The multi-model averages favor La Niña conditions (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) continuing through the winter [Figs. 6] and [7]. Given the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through December-February (DJF) 2016-17. At this time, the consensus favors La Niña to be short-lived, with ENSO-neutral favored beyond DJF. La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday November 17th). Seasonal outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in the northern tier of the United States. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 08 December 2016 . To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected]

I agree, based on what Chris and Paul have posted it would seem the remnant El Nino regime is still overwhelming the potentially weak La Nina to La Nada event in the Pacific for this winter.

It hasn't been tweeted yet, so snowman can't answer that.

It may go to La Nada, it's a La Nina Watch for a reason. Doesn't mean a weak La Nina is a lock, but NWS shouldn't have dropped the watch regardless based on what models had forecasted (borderline weak la nina to la nada). https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-niño-and-la-niña-alert-system