Nomz

How far is that squall gonna go? Looks like it’s chugging along on radar.

Pretty extreme wording for tonight

11 if you include the three different marine hazards

LWX hazards lit up like a Christmas tree, lol. Snow Squall Warning Heavy Freezing Spray Warning Winter Storm Warning High Wind Warning Storm Warning Gale Warning Extreme Cold Warning Winter Weather Advisory Cold Weather Advisory Wind Advisory Freezing Spray Advisory Low Water Advisory Extreme Cold Watch Special Weather Statement Air Quality Alert Hazardous Weather Outlook all active somewhere in the map

Very pleasantly surprised on the snow today, didn't think it had the juice to get all the way to DC. Pretty solid flakes for what was basically a flurry.

About as significant as flurries get here in Georgetown 4:30

so you're telling me theres a chance

Not snow related, but its gonna be fuckin windy Saturday morning

look at the euro op lol

That feels like a kinda shallow for the amount of precip it's dumping, no?

40 inches for Boston

Realistically, all you can ask for at this range is to be in the game. Being 500 miles off target and dead in the bullseye doesn't really make a difference 12 days out.

would be so fun to get a perfectly tracked noreaster rainstorm in mid february

CPC agrees

I hope the mix line sets up 5 miles north of your backyard

Don't even try this dude would rather never see snow again before he admits the euro is the best model

Re: assimilating data correctly Completely unrelated, but it should show how important proper initialization is. Before June 20th (Enderlin EF5 day), most models were very consistent in showing zero prefrontal development in the potent warm sector due to very warm 700mb temperatures. However, the night before, the HRRR was the only one consistently initializing temps. Other models were running 1-2 °C too warm, which obviously led to incorrectly choking out prefrontal development. Because the HRRR was correctly initializing cooler, it was consistently showing robust prefrontal development ~18 hours pre-event, while it took the other models till mere hours before to start showing prefrontal development. If you follow svwx you know what happened later that day...

no JMA?

Meh, IMO the rap is best at extremely short term soundings

DC 04z RAP sounding off the 02z run. Could get messy.

Not looking good IMO

Are we getting slabbed?

new e+e

We got the 12z f84 NAM. We all we got, we all we need.