KChuck

What's snow???

And yet the death count isn't moving much.

Ditto. Light coating of frost. Weather service said possible freeze so I cut the first Keifer pear that I was able to grow that survived late spring frosts from my tree.

Daughter left her apartment off of Wade Hampton Blvd to walk the area with a friend. She said she expected it to be bad but it was really bad with trees down all over the place. I feel for all affected. I was working McNasty's (McDonald's back in the day) in 1972 when Agnes went thru NE Pa three times (it looped) following heavy thunderstorms in the Catskills the week before. We went driving around the next day taking pictures and were shocked at the flooding. For anyone who has traveled I81 over the Susquehanna River at Harrisburg, Pa, consider the width of the flood plain at that spot and how high the I81 bridge is above the river. Susquehanna flooding was so bad that the bridge was under water. I'm not even going to mention the conditions that the flooding left the houses in. Ground was so saturated that the air-tight casket vaults were popping up out of the ground, some going down the river. Impossible to imagine but I recall the pictures on the local TV. I was living in Scranton, Pa at the time. We were making hamburgers as fast as we could, not even wrapping them, placing them in grocery bags donated by local groceries, and sending them by truck to the workers feverishly filling and placing sandbags to try to save Wilkes-Barre. They failed and water was past the second floor downtown. Awful!

Nope. There's concern there also. Daughter is living there with you between downtown Greenville and Taylors.

Congrats! (Read heavy sarcasm)

My daughter lives there also. She just texted wife and I that she's surprised that she still has power.

I believe that someone has his greater than or equal arrows pointed in the wrong direction. It translates to less than or equal to 105 mph and MSLP less than or equal to 960 hPa.

I wish that I could have put that in a sarcastic font. That link is for a flood watch and mentions locations in the triad but not the triad itself in the write up. The DISCOS usually focus on the triangle, coastal plain and sandhills areas in detail and occasionally the northeast piedmont, stating precipitation expectations and what not. Lately, they have totally ignored the mention of the triad in the discos. Why is that important to me? Because the triad is in its own weather environment and will have results and impacts separate from the others. When we are not mentioned, you have to interpolate what to expect based on what's written for other nearby weather stations adjusted by your personal experiences. We were adequately addressed when there was an active GSO weather station. Since that was dissolved in a budget cutting move, I have to interpolate between Roanoke, Greenville, and Raleigh station discos to guess what to expect here in the Kernersville area when Raleigh doesn't specifically mention the Triad. Same for radar coverage when it comes to storms based on the direction the storm is coming from. Kville is on the fringe of each of these radars so severe storms can get tricky. That's why I'm a participant in the storm watch program and attend local classes whenever they are available. The storm watchers are the eyes on that bottom 7-10k feet of atmosphere in the triad the NWS radars cannot see due to curvature of the earth. I also glean what I can from the more advanced amateurs like yourself (greatly appreciative of your work and input!!!) on these forums in an attempt to learn more about the weather.

I am curious... Has the NWS moved the Triad out of the RDU region and into another? The reason I'm asking is that RDU doesn't seem to mention the Triad in their discos lately and I'm thinking that I might have missed the announcement.

Watch what you ask for!

4.4" current storm total for me just north of Kville.

I believe that the weather service was counting on a huge fetch off of the Atlantic to account for the heavy rain training. We received a quick quarter inch yesterday and a trace this morning. Sun just came out in Kville. Told Mrs this morning my guess would be two inches tops for the triad unless something off of the ocean materializes. Weather service is still holding to their guns of 4-6 for the triad so guess we'll see. Raleigh's briefing image displays Debby with the center appearing to be filled in. That's not what the radar is currently showing. As I said, we'll see.

I thought wife and I had it bad here just north of you north of Kville. We're at 1.24 for the day, 2.46 for the week (basically yesterday and today), and 3.46 for the month. We were blessed with 2.52 for June. Seems like a lot compared to you in Archdale, but our grass is still brown and crunchy and our four year old dogwoods we planted in the sun by the drive are highly stressed to the point we may lose one.

1.17“ from roughly ten to midnight last night. Wife's garden says thank you!!!

IMHO... Keep in mind that models are built on past statistical analysis plus tweaking. If rules behind the current storms change, then the rules behind past analysis and current models can be thrown out the window. No???

Got blessed with a surprise half inch of rain overnight. Wife's garden says thank you!

Summary April 1, 2024 - April 30, 2024 High Low Avg Temp 88.3 °F 28.8 °F 60.7 °F Dew Point 65.8 °F 24.1 °F 49.2 °F Humidity 96 % 27 % 69 % Precip 2.54 in

Would be interesting to see that in the different tilt radars.

Thanks for the advice! Wife and I saw our first one with the 2017 version in Greenville, SC. She didn't want to go but went to keep me company because she knew how much I enjoyed astronomy. I volunteered several years at the Keystone College Thomas Cuppilari observatory in Fleetville, Pa. I thought I knew so much about eclipses and what to expect after leading slide shows and discussions for so many years...hah! My wife burst out crying when totality came and you could look directly at the sun. My daughter, who doesn't see why people make such a fuss over such events, went on her social page that evening and posted to her friends an apology to all of the eclipse chasers saying that the eclipse was awesome. It's still too early to throw in the towel. My wife has an autoimmune disease that affects her muscles and is on a special diet which complicates traveling. I'm not worrying about the weather until Thursday evening. By then everyone should have a fairly good idea what we're up against. I have until 3pm Friday to cancel reservations and get a full refund so that takes some of the pressure off.

Looks like everything may be coming up roses for you and Arkansas after peering at the latest eclipse time guesses. New York state looking like it's being infested with weeds as far as high, mid, and low level clouds go. Good luck to you! If nothing changes looks like Mrs and I will be canceling our New York reservations Wednesday and sitting this one out.

Unfortunately it seems to be headed in the other direction for the Northeast.

Anticipated map of fronts/pressures produced last night for 8am edt Monday morning. Write up from the WPC. "Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance seems reasonably agreeable with the overall pattern through this forecast period as highlighted by formation and subsequent slow transition of a massive Omega style blocking pattern over the lower 48 and vicinity starting by later this week. The large scale features consist of an upper trough/closed low over the Northeast finally ejecting into the Atlantic early next week, another upper low tracking from the eastern Pacific into the West later this week pivoting into the north-central Plains early next week with ridging ahead of it, and additional energy digging into the West by next Sunday-Tuesday. Forecast spread and uncertainty are generally below normal overall, but does increase into early next week with the ejection of system energies from the West to the Plains along with complex associated cyclo/fronto genesis transitions. Forecast spread is certainly within typical levels for the Days 6-7 period, but has implications for frontal positions (and cloud cover for the eclipse in the central to east- central U.S.)."

Buffalo NWS 4:23pm disco... "LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An omega blocking pattern will very gradually slide east across the CONUS near end of this week and into early next week. Initially on Friday, deep troughing in the form of a closed low will be located over the Northeast to the eastern Great Lakes as well as west of the Rocky Mountains, with a strong ridge of high pressure in the middle over the central Plains. Unsettled weather will persist across the forecast area though gradually wind down Friday through Saturday as the eastern trough maintains a moist, cyclonic flow across the region. 850H temps may initially be just cold enough around -8/-9C for some lake enhancement Friday morning, though will likely warm a few degrees through the day to effectively shut off this response. This being said, will continue to nudge PoPs above NBM this period as the continued influx of moisture and shortwave ripples aloft should maintain at least some shower activity across the region. Chances for precip will be highest across the higher terrain areas east of Lake Erie and across the Finger Lakes where orographic lift will be a factor. In regards to p-type, very marginal boundary layer and sfc temps will support a mainly elevation-based mix of rain and snow Friday through Saturday morning, though the strong early April sun angle should limit the ability for any additional snowfall to stick during the daytime hours. The area should begin to dry out Saturday night as the closed low over New England weakens and shifts out into the northwestern Atlantic, and the ridge to the west builds east into the Great Lakes region. As the attendant surface high moves over and eventually east of the forecast area, clearer skies and warming temps will make their way to the region by Sunday. Now on the fringe of our routine forecast range, many eyes will be on Monday, when the path of totality for the highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will cut through much of our forecast area. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in good agreement on the longwave pattern early next week, with the sensible weather across our area being dry and on the warmer side, featuring high temperatures mainly in the 50s. At this range however, uncertainty is very high in the amount of total cloud cover and how it will be structured, especially across western NY. Long-range guidance suggests increasing mid and/or high clouds through the day, though whether or not these would be dense enough to obscure any view of the eclipse cannot be determined at this time. Stay tuned!"