KChuck

Last one to leave please turn out the lights.

Maybe he was talking about last winter?

GFS says https://giphy.com/gifs/season-3-the-simpsons-3x6-xT5LMxAwV5eqzeSd68

45 at 6am down to 29 at 7:20 with highest gust 21mph. Power in section of development (38 people) went out at 7:04. Lovely :'(

You should have plenty of moisture when you think how close that the models had us to some pretty serious cold and snow a week ago.

So you're telling me that I should be content with the dusting that I had on the ground this morning? (FWIW that's a heavy frost)

Washington Post: "Should Reagan National (DCA) remain D.C.’s official weather station?"

Nice pics Met1985!

No way that you're in Kville... your farm in Virginia?

I sure hope you're wrong about our area. Wife is on the tail end of her 2nd round of COVID.

And this folks is what is known as the kiss of death. Upstate is about to get hammered!

Most cane models only worry about going out 3 days for details. That's why past 3 days is hatched in the maps. Do you follow the 348 hour GFS model to plan your picnics and vacations?

I doubt that an ensemble that learns from past biases is valuable anymore when the statisticians are constantly tweaking the models and their biases change

I believe that he was referring to the media and not the storms

A la a case of the blind squirrel finds a nut now and then

I think that the NHC is between a rock and a hard place forecasting canes coming up the Florida coast. Kind of reminds me of NOAA mets trying to forecast snowstorms coming across the mountains into North Carolina. You never know which way they will bounce kind of like a pin ball machine. There's a big difference between dealing with a snowstorm vs a cat 4-5 hurricane. There were a lot of timing variables with Ian as far as that front coming down from the north not to mention land interactions. And no one, not even the blog experts, forecasted Ian strengthening the way it did once past Cuba. Once that occurred all of the dynamics surrounding Ian changed dramatically putting the NHC into doing their best to save lives and not spread needless fear. Overall, I think that they did a good job with what they had to deal with.

At least he knew which way to lean into the storm. Wonder how long before one of these macho reporters gets killed by debris getting blown into them and giving them a mortal wound?

Will the result of the negative surge be similar to what happened with Katrina and Lake Pontchartrain where after the storm passed the surge came back the other way with a vengeance? If so, what would the guess be as to how bad Tampa could be affected?

How do you know? What are you basing this statement on?

When the moon is at its full or new moon phase, high tides are at their highest, while low tides are lower than usual. Called spring tides, these tides occur when the sun, moon and the Earth all line up. Quoting eather Mike post 17 minutes after yours: