notvirga!
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Everything posted by notvirga!
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Absolutely worlds apart are the uk and the Gem. Hopefully consensus tomorrow but I’m not even sure about that.
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From @jacksillin on Twitter. “So what "squishes" the low in the ECMWF's depiction? A shortwave trough moving through New England Sunday PM. The northerly flow behind this feature suppresses the burgeoning storm on Monday, letting it slip SE on Tuesday. The GEM has this feature *much* weaker and farther NE.”
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Yep and euro is now one of the worst outcomes. From Best to worst. Frustrating considering its still the most accurate model.
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Those asking Ji updated his facebook to say he had a close friend pass away. He may not be around too much the next few days.
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Yep coldest of the big snows I recall. Low to mid teens out towards Winchester too.
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For the most part all of the mid Atlantic HECS have been well modeled inside 5-7 days since the early 90s. (I’m including March 93). Jan 00 was MECS and a colossal failure in modeling.
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If the euro is right or close, when would expect the other models to follow suit? Canadian seems close but gfs not so much.
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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
notvirga! replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
On the subject of categorizing storms, 4-6 or anything with a verified warning a to me is significant so: SECS. MECS I’d say 8-16. 16-24 HECS. BECS 24 plus. -
Unless it’s super cold yes due to latent heat release.
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An inch of ice accretion is highly improbable. Of course it’s not impossible but unless temps are well below 32 and rates are light I just can’t see it. Obviously if it looks like this Sunday you’d have to start prepping for the worst. I was supposed to be in Winchester for a dentist appointment Monday and to visit my mom but 4 hours on the road with all this potential ice, I’ll probably cancel.
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My mom is lives on Western Frederick county VA and has been stuck under that heavy snow shower for an hour or so. Says she has an inch of snow
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I was thinking owl
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I remember the late dec 1990 storm. Went to high school basketball post Christmas tournament in front royal. Started snowing when we arrived in the evening and by the time we got home there was about 8 inches which fell in just a few hours. Barely made it home. Dad was driving a dodge Aries and it conked out at the top of our long driveway (probably snow in the engine) It was a long drive home that night from front royal to Winchester.
