Hopefully this all pans out to give everyone some excitement today!
The approach of a cold front to the west will bring the potential
for strong to severe scattered thunderstorms today. A warm and moist
boundary layer will support strong instability with 1500 - 3000 J/kg
of CAPE by the late morning and into the early afternoon. With 0-6
km shear of 30-40 kt, thunderstorms will have ample opportunity to
remain organized and become strong to severe. There remains ample
surface and upper level forcing with an upper level jet streak
allowing for divergence aloft, an approaching vorticity maximum in
the mid-levels, and a surface cold front allowing for lift
through the entire atmosphere. This will likely result in the
development of scattered thunderstorms as early as late morning.
Thunderstorms likely become more widespread and more intense
into the afternoon as instability is maximized. The primary
threat for thunderstorms is damaging wind gusts, though hail,
and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Additionally, PWAT values on the order of 2 - 2.3 inches will allow
for any thunderstorm that develops to produce heavy rainfall with
rates up to or exceeding 1" per hour. This may result in
localized flash flooding, especially in more urban and
vulnerable areas. Poor drainage flooding can be expected in any
thunderstorm. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall today.