wthrmn654

It would appear/ seem that its going north east, does it go to the south/ east of Bermuda?

34knts 50knts 64knts

Noaa 49, noaa 43 are en route with teal somewhere in the storm can't pick him up on flight tracking sadly

This storm is just so backwards and confusing with the pressure drops yet semi crazy winds on only half of it lol.

500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 Ernesto's strengthening trend has seemingly halted overnight. The cloud pattern near the center has become less organized, and the system appears to be struggling with dry air again with some eyewall erosion in the western semicircle. Still, the convective banding in the eastern side where the previous aircraft mission found the peak winds remains deep and well-defined, suggesting that Ernesto hasn't lost much strength. The initial wind speed is kept at 85 kt for this advisory, a bit above the latest satellite estimates, pending the upcoming Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission this morning. The environment near Ernesto could support some strengthening today. However, the most noticeable change in the overnight intensity guidance aids is that almost all of them are showing more shear today than previously expected. This shear, combined with the environmental dry air, has led to this cycle's intensity forecast values being a lot lower than 6 h ago. Given current trends, the NHC prediction has been decreased from the last forecast, and is still on the high side of the guidance. It is worth noting that despite the peak wind speed reductions, the forecast size is generally larger than the previous forecast, so the life-threatening hazards from Ernesto are unchanged. After the hurricane passes Bermuda, there could be a brief window for some re-intensification in lighter shear conditions plus favorable trough influences before Ernesto crosses into cool waters, and little change was made at longer range.

The fact that the dry air was persistent for 24hrs was red flag#2. Red flag#1 was the extremely far movement, I without a doubt think has it been moving gals of its speed orginally say 7,8 mphs, it would of also been able to explode and erode the dry air. That thing was moving so fast, kept getting into New dry air it would seem around the time it finally absorbed and was getting is act better.

Years ago I thought there was a saying about one of the letters in the alphabet of names being one that's not good with tropical systems. Lol it may of been the letter E storms None the less, Ernesto tropical career has been one that was never really successful only 2 times if i remember the wiki Stat from yesterday,did it became a cane.

I swear it looks like that front is taking it north east faster..

It picked up 1 mph sped Movement wise lol

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 Ernesto has been strengthening this evening. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to about 968 mb, and a blend of the peak flight-level and SFMR winds support increasing the initial intensity to 85 kt. This makes Ernesto a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ernesto has a ragged eye and a large wind field, with the highest winds occurring in the northeast quadrant. Ernesto is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a high pressure system over the central Atlantic and a large-scale trough off the U.S. east coast. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, bringing the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Around that time, the trough is expected to lift out, leaving Ernesto in weaker steering currents. As a result, a slower and likely more erratic motion to the north or north-northeast is forecast over the weekend. Another trough is expected to approach the cyclone late in the weekend, and that should cause an accelerated motion to the northeast near or east of Atlantic Canada early next week. The NHC track forecast is a touch to the east and a little slower than the previous one through its passage near Bermuda to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. It seems likely that Ernesto will strengthen some more during the next 12 to 24 hours as it is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions of low wind shear, upper-level diffluence, a relatively moist airmass, and over warm waters during that time. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear and gradually cooler waters should cause a slow weakening trend. However, baroclinic influences could offset some of the weakening, which is why the official forecast shows little change in strength during the 48- to 72-hour time frame. Ernesto is forecast to complete extratropical transition by day 5, when it will likely be embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA model.

I saw that as well, they were flying into a deep explosive cluster of storms when that was being recorded too

Amazing how it's still dropping pressure yet taking on air, but luckily winds aren't going crazy power say. With that said recon may of gotten a couple samples while it was firing up again. May just be night time throwing a twist but it looks like it's a little smaller.?

8 pm update 90 mph.

The lack of lightening around the center on sat tracking is just weird. Usually there's tons of thunderstorms around a good center. Found a Advected Layer Precipitable Water map.

I'm not sure, sat loops have been al over the place and I think that's a bit of the dry air and attempt maybe? Hard to say.

Pressure matches the average mslp for a category 2 hurricane, which has winds of 96mph or higher, yet the winds are still not matching yet.. and are still sub par with only about 71-75 knots to the east of eye area.

968mb Could be rough looking but being better ish?

972.9mb recon pressure?

Big big looking slug of dry air getting wrapped in south west side now, I do believe. Closest to the center. Quite ragged looking, imo