wthrmn654

a little fun and games but historically speaking, ernesto has never materialized to much usually lol Ernesto 1982 – formed southwest of Bermuda and dissipated without threatening land. 1988 – formed east of Bermuda and did not cause any damage or casualties. 1994 – formed southwest of Cape Verde and dissipated without affecting land. 2000 – lasted for two days and did not threaten land. 2006 – a Category 1 hurricane which formed near the Windward Islands, made landfall in Haiti and Cuba, struck Florida and the Carolinas, and killed at least 11 people. 2012 – a Category 2 hurricane which made landfall in Mexico. 2018 – formed in the North Atlantic and dissipated without affecting land. 2024 – currently active.

unless I'm mistaken its northwest side just started interacting with the front? the clouds that were wrapping around all but vanished as soon as it touched it. that and looks like it just ran into some more decent dry air....

entire right side is winds of 64+knots

12z shear update

974mb first eye pass. so far aren't all that impressive but it came in from the northwest. Also where the dry air shows up closest to the center on radar, the winds are much lower versus earlier recon of the same sector. strongest winds however are still located farther out to the southeast same place as earlier recon.

poor spiraling storm! it slowed down 2 mph but still cruising along at a good clip.

currently 2 noaa planes are doing hard core recon, ones been in the storm for a little bit doing star pattern upper air recon 2nd plane is just reaching the storm will be doing lower air recon.

if Ernesto is to really get cranking before Bermuda, it still has some time, but that window is closing. Model guidance is still suggesting that some continued gradual strengthening is possible in the next day or so. The deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to be weak to moderate, and Ernesto should be over warm waters for the next few days. However, the broad nature of the current circulation, coupled with some dry air ingestion, will likely slow the intensification rate. Ernesto is now forecast to peak at 95 kt in 24 h, which is near the top of the model guidance envelope. Beyond a day, the shear is expected to increase and induce gradually weakening, though the warm waters and positive interaction with the upper-level trough will likely allow Ernesto remain a powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda.

boy Ernesto is struggling nonstop it looks like the dry air has been able to go nearly all the way around the storm itself. with no end in sight, visually speaking in terms of satellite views...

It does not look very pretty on satellite

5 am update While the shear near Ernesto remains low, a large dry slot continues to wrap near the core, preventing anything other than slow intensification so far. Most of the guidance gradually intensifies the system during the next day or so as the very warm waters and light-to-moderate shear outweigh the effects of the dry air. Little change was made to the intensity forecast,

Oh man, that dry air really got wrapped around the southern side, just looking at the latest loop.

Recon finished, only did 2 passes, and 2nd pass pressure was up to 983.

Alright then, back to tracking.

Looking at the recon, when they tag the drops as max wind band, are they referring to surface level winds?

If not, moderators will likely step in. He's not learning and clearly thinks it's a joke.... sadly.