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anthonymm

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Everything posted by anthonymm

  1. anthonymm
    What model guidance is suggesting the ridge moves east?
  2. anthonymm
    Seriously doubt. Next 10 days at least will be normal to below normal, and by the time late september/early october arrives, climo works against 90 really really hard. Mid to upper 80s not out of the question last week or so of September though.
  3. anthonymm
    Hopefully this will be the storm will save foliage season
  4. anthonymm
    Very disappointing, no lightning or thunder.
  5. anthonymm
    October will have some sultry days/nights.
  6. anthonymm
    ECM is now incapable of seeing below normal temps. It blowtorches everything >30 days out by default now. Garbage warm biased model
  7. anthonymm
    Not true, nyc would have gotten 20" even without the march storm. Only slightly below avg.
  8. anthonymm
    So blowtorch 22-23 style winter incoming?
  9. anthonymm
    It never does. But then again, that almost never happens now, so it ends up being right most of the time.
  10. anthonymm
    Powerful ridge over Alaska. If that actually plays out there is no way for us to be mild.
  11. anthonymm
    It seems like people are pretty much already set on a niña? Are we jumping the gun?
  12. anthonymm
    If we can get the western pac to cool significantly and the eastern pac to continue boiling then that pretty much locks in a great winter in the east right?
  13. anthonymm
    Wow very sticky looking weekend. High dews and the lows dont drop below 70 in the city, yuck.
  14. anthonymm
    Agreed, fall foliage sucked last year cause of the drought. If we don't get a drought buster soon it's gonna get bad
  15. anthonymm
    I see. I guess el ninos are typically more boom or bust, with one or two huge storms making the whole season. Just need to time that active subtropical jet with one good cold shot.
  16. anthonymm
    I can see that for ninas. If you dont get a good December even in a nina you're cooked. But what about ninos?
  17. anthonymm
    NYC is already in drought conditions. I can see a repeat of last fall, maybe not as bad.
  18. anthonymm
    Central park's average is 30". If you use the older climo then it's like 25". Still though, even just a December with at least 5" is very strongly correlated to the total snow for the season.
  19. anthonymm
    Any reason why winters in the tristate area show their cards in December? December snowfall is pretty much the biggest indicator of whether the rest of the winter will be snowy or not. Very few low snow Decembers result in a good winter, and almost all snowy December result in snowy january-februaries.
  20. anthonymm
    It does not want to precipitate when its cold now. I don't know why that is the case. The pattern as he said for the last 7 years has been that it's either warm and very wet or cold and dry.
  21. anthonymm
    Agreed, but the reversion is rather extreme. I mean c'mon: 2021-2022: 17.9" 2022-2023: 2.3" 2023-2024: 7.5" 2024-2025: 12.9 " (despite the sustained cold). That streak is more anomalous in my opinion than the snowy 2010s pattern.
  22. anthonymm
    We always find ways to avoid getting snowstorms in the 2020s. It's like nature is overcorrecting massively for the snowy 2000s-2010s. I really think no matter what kinda 500 mb pattern we get we aren't gonna get a >30" winter for the next few years.
  23. anthonymm
    The uhi is just relentless honestly. Our first frost dates are always at least a month later than the burbs. Luckily it doesn't seem to impact snow totals.
  24. anthonymm
    The low dews are a god send. Any dew above 60 should be criminalized
  25. anthonymm
    Downtown jersey city. The closer you are to Manhattan the more intense the UHI is. I doubt Manhattan dropped below 62.
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