anthonymm
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Everything posted by anthonymm
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Welp, shitty trends today. Unless they reverse by tomorrow it's over. Can't get a nice solid ridge over the rockies to save ourselves.
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I was extremely incorrect. Too jaded from the past lol. It seems like we might make out decently this winter. Next storm looks like it's trending NW
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This was a lesson in not trusting ensembles. Models failed epically. You can make a killing betting under 5" for february on the betting markets. Kalshi still thinks central park's gonna see 10" this month
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I wouldnt be so sure. nyc has a unique capacity to underperform in recent years.
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At least we know if we start as sleet it's over. No mysteries about the totals.
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Totally agree. I'm seeing a carbon copy repeat of Thursday. C-1" and then gross sleet. HRRR caving incredibly fast to NAM.
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That lines up nicely with the new NAM. Actually thats a bit too aggressive I think around 0.3" would be closer. We'll see later on today but I think deep down you know the naysers are correct.
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Looking at the recent nam this might be a bust forecast. I can see everyone south of bronx getting a trace to 0.1".
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Well not to brag but it is looking like I was right all along huh? Today's misses north and midweek misses south. There's a reason I call for low snow, we are in an epically unlucky low snow cycle. Cant deny it.
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idk what ur talking about nam 3k conus gives 0.9" verbatim for the city.
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overrunning sucks. enough of these stupid warm noses. drop a ridge out west and give us a classic miller A coastal storm already
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Some lucky person in the bronx: 2" Central park and Laguardia: around 0.7" JFK: 0.4". If im super wrong chew me out Sunday night.
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NAM says no way jose. NAM nailed the warm nose last time. Think its gonna be a very similar outcome this time.
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Well the snow hole means its sniffing out a warm nose near the city no? of course its unlikely theres a hole in the actual precip wall its just more mix.
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Careful what you say, nam is great at sniffing out warmth aloft. Dont be surprised if u wake up with <1" of slop.
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Latest NAM run is a middle finger to nyc. a perfect nyc shaped snow hole. its gonna verify.
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"might". Yes I basically agree with your estimate but the low end. I'd be pretty damn surprised if anywhere in manhattan or brooklyn gets above 1.5"
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The under always wins in recent years. If you have predicted significantly less snow for the area than what every model shows you'd have been right every single time since 2022.
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Trend is (not) your friend. Recent trends on both globals have been for weaker and suppressed. As for why cutters after, well we're in the 7 day range now and absolutely every model has everything after 1/12 cutting inland. Pretty simple.
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They always underdo the warm nose. I think even 2" is impossible for the city proper. This is a non event, likely repeat of the last one. Coating of sleet/slop that melts before sunset.
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That's what im seeing. Saturday night an inch or two of slop, next storm misses south, and then cutter city. Not really impressed at all.
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We have been really lacking in the PNA aspect. In my opinion this is the most important thing for getting a big blockbuster storm nowadays (without block busters we cant get to seasonal averages anymore). Unfortunately nothing is suggesting a pna spike in the near future.
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The only thing that can prevent another below normal winter is a huge ridge out west. Without that all the qpf will underperform.
