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anthonymm

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Everything posted by anthonymm

  1. anthonymm
    The last couple days of Sept scares me. GFS has been hinting at a torchfest.
  2. anthonymm
    That pacific look is awful actually for the eastern US. The strongest warm anomalies are in the western pac. I think this is gonna reinforce western Aleutian ridging and troughing over the rockies. Should be a very familiar feeling winter for the I95, similar to the last few years with western storm tracks/great lakes cutters.
  3. anthonymm
    Are you seeing September finish above normal for the park? I'm seeing a lot of muggy nights (almost 70 degree overnight lows!) in the upcoming week, which should erode the cooler start totally.
  4. anthonymm
    Cold start to a month usually means blowtorch finish. It's very difficult to pull off BN months these days. I can see a huge -PNA ridge over the east to finish off the month. Probably upper 80s for everyone south of SNE.
  5. anthonymm
    It will verify.
  6. anthonymm
    Cold early September is a classic fake out. We don't truly shake summer off totally these days until like mid October.
  7. anthonymm
    With no cool downs in sight September might average seasonable if not slightly above normal no? Much warmer looking nights ahead as well.
  8. anthonymm
    That's a pretty rare winter pattern for our area (speaking the tristate area). Warm and wet usually wins.
  9. anthonymm
    I'm not saying its gonna be a cold winter (I dont think it will). He was just asking whether or not a warm north pacific is consistent with a cold east coast winter (it obviously is).
  10. anthonymm
    Yes it does.
  11. anthonymm
    Last actual KU for the mid atlantic was February 2021 then. For SNE it was Jan 2022. I doubt a KU happens next winter, or even a widespread 10" event from philly to nyc. Boston is a different climo they can get 10" storms even in bad winters.
  12. anthonymm
    Anything above 6" is KU material for central park now lmfao. Central park has not gotten a 6" event since January 2022.
  13. anthonymm
    +PNA is king. I think it's probably the best predictor of weather the I95 gets a snowy pattern compared to all other teleconnections.
  14. anthonymm
    Last year wasn't a nina. It was cool neutral. I know winters generally suck now but it seems you're really grasping at straws
  15. anthonymm
    So basically if we cant cool the western pac down say goodbye to snowy winters in the east?
  16. anthonymm
    Yea I dont get wearing hoodies when the sun is still this strong and the daytime temps are in the 70s. Hoodies are a mid to late october thing
  17. anthonymm
    Yup ninas are supposed to have good Decembers. If you dont have a good December in a nina the rest of the season looks grim.
  18. anthonymm
    December snowfall is I think the stat best correlated with overall snow for the winter in nyc. It's very rare to get a snowy December and have the rest of the winter be a dud (has this ever happened ?), and also rare to have a snow free December result in an above average winter (maybe only 15-16?).
  19. anthonymm
    What model guidance is suggesting the ridge moves east?
  20. anthonymm
    Seriously doubt. Next 10 days at least will be normal to below normal, and by the time late september/early october arrives, climo works against 90 really really hard. Mid to upper 80s not out of the question last week or so of September though.
  21. anthonymm
    Hopefully this will be the storm will save foliage season
  22. anthonymm
    Very disappointing, no lightning or thunder.
  23. anthonymm
    October will have some sultry days/nights.
  24. anthonymm
    ECM is now incapable of seeing below normal temps. It blowtorches everything >30 days out by default now. Garbage warm biased model
  25. anthonymm
    Not true, nyc would have gotten 20" even without the march storm. Only slightly below avg.
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