anthonymm
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Everything posted by anthonymm
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NYC hasnt had a 2" event this entire winter despite the cold! Face the reality man this is an anti-snowfall climate era
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Well surely it can. If the climate cant change so suddenly look at this chart and explain what happened after the winter of 2021-2022 : https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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Back then yes. Now everything needs to be absolutely perfect to get even an inch.
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I can't believe people are unironically saying this with a screaming southeast ridge, trough over the west look in February. That's basically the nail in the coffin type 500 mb pattern for I95 snow prospects.
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https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsnownym/total-snow-in-nyc#kxsnownym-25feb. Bet under 5" its easy money.
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2010s was an entirely different era. It found every excuse to drop snow as soon as the temp fell below 32. Nowadays its the exact opposite.
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Yes absolutely but it doesn't really explain the recent lack of snow. As recently as 2021 the pattern wasnt so hostile to snow.
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The precip will come on the 50s-60s days and it'll be dry on the days cold enough to snow. How have we not learned this yet?
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Yup. You can safely bet under 5" and make a killing these days. People I guess haven't caught on to the fact that it doesn't snow in central park anymore.
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You cant get snow with warmth haha. Maybe the interior at high elevation does well but this is pretty much a worst case scenario type look for the I95 megalopolis. Anyone that lives near the I95 not waving the white flag for February is in tremendous denial.
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After the threat of suppression was made obvious after the beginning of the month it quickly corrected. Also the recency bias probably isnt why they went with around 8" in the beginning, its probably just because 8" is around the average Jan snowfall. If anything recency bias would lead you to think (correctly) that this Jan would be very below average in terms of snow. I'm sticking with my guns, its a multiyear low snow cycle. It isnt meant to snow much for us in the 2020s.
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To give you an idea of how hard we've been sucking recently, 9 inches is the total combined snowfall in central park from 22/23 to 23/24. If we actually reach 10" that'll be snowier than the previous two winters combined lmao
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100%, just look at the betting markets. Current prediction is around 3” for all of February. When you have to put your money where your mouth is you’ll be smart and aim low.
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Yup and we’re heading into a very mild-if not torch- pattern. Plus its much harder for the city to get snow these days so that 4-6 number you cite is probably more like 1-2 or 2-3 at best now.
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January will absolutely be snowier. NYC does not do well with any amount of warm anomalies. SE ridge pretty much kills any chance for snow around here. I would not be surprised if February does not pick up 2" even.
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Every single last teleconnection is wrong for NYC snow. The only good one is -EPO. The most important things to get snow into the city is a huge +PNA ridge in Montana + weakly negative NAO. Without one of these things you can kiss anything above an inch or two in February goodbye
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Absolutely! I'd much rather take the cold and worry about suppression giving me 1-3" instead of 0" and 1" of rain with a SE ridge type pattern.
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Cause the pattern is recent years has been no snow. We couldnt get decent snow with a freezing January what makes u think we'll get it with a SE ridge niña February lmao
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Nope. Things will trend to cutters. The upcoming pattern absolutely screams cutter.
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I'm putting my foot down with snowboss. winter is cancelled if you're south of new england. the park wont see 3 more inches of snow mark my words bookmark this post. Sorry weenies.
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weak niño means we might actually pull closer to 20" of snow.
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I've seen enough. The pattern has sucked for years now. We couldnt get snow when it was cold and all the teleconnections were awesome, what makes you think we're going to get snow when its warm with shitty teleconnections.
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I think we're basically done in terms of snowfall this winter. I'd bet $100 central park finishes with <10" yet again this winter. Idc what anyone says about the 80s this current snow drought is wayy worse than anything we've seen before. Central park never got two back to back <10" winters, let alone three. We must have seriously pissed off the snow gods or something.
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The last decent winter storm. I'm not expecting any more moderate to significant snowfall for the rest of this winter, with niña rearing its ugly head. Another sucky <10" winter in the cards.
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I mean those who live close to the I95 (urbanites). Been an awful pattern for the coastal northeast.
