anthonymm
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Everything posted by anthonymm
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12z euro quite wintry looking for the metro.
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Not a snowball's chance in hell. Best possible outcome for central park is a couple slushy inches---> rain.
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It's either ots or heavy wet snow for the deep interior. I95 isnt in the cards at all since we don't have a ridge over the rockies.
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Maybe, but there is pretty much 0 operational support for an OTS solution.
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Albany looks like the jackpot. I think this is a north of I84 storm. Hopefully coastal plain can cash in at some point in Dec..
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GFS already corrected north and it's likely not done. Cimo favors the interior heavily. Catskills and Poconos should get a really nice event.
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God I booked the wrong year for a rockies early Jan ski trip. On the other hand when they torch we get snow.
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I like how we all gave MJO812 weenie emojis for saying everyone overestimating SE ridge and he was completely validated. I will admit I have a warm bias. Maybe some others should step up and admit it too.
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This but unironically. The pac jet permanently cancelled snow odds for the tristate.
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I think so too man. We're not going back. I can see NYC settling on a 15ish inch mean for good now, absent a volcanic eruption like bluewave said.
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100%. It is so bizarre to see like none of the conus with snow cover this late into November. Can't be a good sign. Even if the cold shot early dec bleeds east like the weenies think it'll quickly moderate anyway from the lack of snowcover. Not gonna cancel winter on Nov 23 but i wouldn't be surprised if this is another stinker.
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Basically whichever way you slice it the atmosphere is biased against cold and snow in the east now.
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Because that's too far out. Underestimate the SE ridge at your own peril.
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Not to be a weenie but what makes you think it’s “very unlikely” the pna flips positive for a period in december?
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The winter is actively showing it's hand with that torch being forecasted first week of December. As many have posted about here, if you're on the east coast, warm Decembers in a nina are about the worst signal possible.
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I dont expect a big winter for the I95 south of Boston yea. Likely <20” , <10” also cant be ruled out. Btw euro kinda backed off the phase 8 idea already. Dec looks mild with the bulk of the cold falling into the plains and rockies.
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I think with terrible models have been, no one should get excited in terms of snow until there is model consensus for snow in their backyard within the 2-3 day window.
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Last Feb there was a storm that looked like a KU for the I95 5 days out, then it got suppressed to coastal virginia/NC lol. You're dead on with the "cutter or suppressed" track stuff, even though people here give you shit for it. It never works for philly to nyc anymore.
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Yep no evidence that this pattern since about feb 2022 will let up any time soon.
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There is a reason Judah is a well respected meteorologist. He doesn't jump on cold because he knows it's hard for us now. If you bet against sustained cold in winters in the mid atlantic/NE nowadays you'll be right 9 times out of 10.
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-PNA is the default in niñas. I think we all agree here this winter will be predominantly a -PNA one.
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no way mjo goes into phase 8. We're in a down cycle. We're paying for the previous snowy 20 year period.
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Early Dec looks warm. One brief cold shot to close Thanksgiving and we get a raging -pna and SER after.
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warm wet and cold dry is an unbeatable pattern
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Yea my reference is the last 3 winters which were 2.5", 7"ish, and 13" ish. Naturally I'm skeptical when people say this area is gonna have 20"+. Though I've seen the numbers from the past and I realize I just got here during a profoundly unwintery stretch.
