anthonymm
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Everything posted by anthonymm
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Yea give me one cold smoke 8 inch storm like jan 22 and a smattering of 2-4" events. Would feel prolifically wintery nowadays.
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Yup, forgot who pointed that out (Don?), but the 4" stat in central park has like a 95+ % success rate.
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23" in nyc would feel incredibly snowy in comparison to recent years. That is more than the last three years combined, yet 6" less than the 30 year average (lol). Hell of a snow drought.
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That like never happens. If the December is snowy in nyc and it's a nina, then the rest of the winter will be snowy too. It seems extraordinarily far fetched that we get a good December followed by a crap rest of the winter. More likely we just get a crap December and of course crap rest of the season.
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Yea the "fast start to winter, then it dies in January" pretty clearly contradicts the data we have about snowy nina decembers for nyc translating to above normal for the rest of the season.. Surprised no one has pointed that out.
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Hah DC would be lucky to get more than 3" with the type of pattern that will unfold.
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The complete and utter lack of any semblance of snow as far north as northern Quebec is disturbing indeed. Should be the kiss of death for us.
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It’s a prelude. When I saw it became a cutter last minute it was like a kiss of death showing our future storm tracks this winter.
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snowfall for nyc metro ?
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Absolutely anemic looking snow growth in Canada, especially eastern Canada. Not what you want to see right now.
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Not so fast: https://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/chiodo%2Betal-NATUREGEO-2019.pdf?utm_source
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are we still forecasted to have an above normal october?
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Big winter for north of immediate SW CT coast. Below that latitude SE ridge and +AO are killers. Wouldn't be surprised if Boston and co catch 50" and no one in nyc and south see at most 10".
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If the banding set up over them it would have upped the seasonal total at the park to about 18", a bit below their long term seasonal average of about 25". Certainly not "well below".
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lol sometimes you take things too far. Is it not lucky that central NJ got an intense lake effect like band in February of 24 that dumped over a foot overnight with no models suggesting anything close to these amounts? This one event combined with the other lighter storms brought them up to their 91-20 seasonal average for that winter. It could have easily impacted central park instead and brought them up to average.
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We had that same setup last year and it was very cold (compared to the last several years). Still couldn't even crack 13" in the park, and it's unlikely next winter will be as cold as last. The setup reminds me of 2022-2023 to be honest (2" of snow that whole winter).
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I'd go lower for philly and nyc. Likely both single digits. Also a warmer on the coast than what they have. Otherwise fine.
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In any event should be a shutout for snow because of the enso state. Like 22/23. Dec 22 was seasonable but a shutout for snow for the city because of the nina northerly storm track. The rest of the winter torched as we all know (warmest Jan-Feb on record).
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Here comes the screaming pac jet. All 3 winter months should be at least + 5 F for the nyc metro, plenty of -PNA, +NAO, cutters etc. Should be a massive winter for the west though. Wouldn't be surprised if Seattle racks up double whatever single digit number we get.
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So to be clear, last year was too suppressed for nyc, but next will be too much se ridging for us. Cool, cool we always lose.
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Yesterday was the last day of summer (= sustained temps > 80 ).
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You're in the northwest suburbs. Here next to Manhattan that would be ludicrous with all the 70 degree uhi nights.
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I dont think we can safely put away the AC till mid November these days. Sigh.
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You described verbatim what will happen. I do like a cold winter but it is frustrating to have a january 25 type scenario where you know it's cold enough to snow but you just keep getting unlucky. At least if its a january 23 type thing you know there's no chance anyway.
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We're too southernly. CT shoreline is the dividing line now. If you look at the last 7 years the snow departures from normal are drastically worse in NYC than Boston say. As I think bluewave mentioned nyc is basically past the point of no return in the temperature department. I expect the same to happen to Boston eventually, maybe in 30ish years.
