anthonymm
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Everything posted by anthonymm
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Yea the one exceptional year. Delete it and its the lowest snowfall decade and nothing even comes close
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If you have to say the words “pattern change” and keep looking 300+ hours out on ensembles, you arent going to do well snowfall wise. We still have learned it dosent like to snow in our region in the 2020s!
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Right we’re just not favored to get snow currently. Have you not noticed that it hasnt snowed heavily in three years ? Do you think this is a coincidence? The city is taking a break from snow.
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Rain’s almost always a lock. Specially when something when its the euro showing it. Idk why the weenies here are getting excited this pattern screams new england and interior. Also you dont know whats gonna happen after the 10th we cant forecast for shit past 10 days. Onto spring.
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We just had a freezing January. Think it's either bad luck or some cyclical phenomenon that makes up for the ton of snow in the 2010s
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When I said the climate has changed, I'm not referring to global warming lmao. I literally mean that the background climate has changed to become much more hostile to snow (at least in our area). This isnt hard to understand but you're being bad faith.
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No, central park measurements are the most accurate ones. The other ones have amateur spotters that do it.
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I'm not talking about climate change in the colloquial sense. I mean the climate here literally changed in the sense that it is now MUCH harder to get snow to fall on the I95. This isnt up for debate the numbers dont lie.
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NYC hasnt had a 2" event this entire winter despite the cold! Face the reality man this is an anti-snowfall climate era
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Well surely it can. If the climate cant change so suddenly look at this chart and explain what happened after the winter of 2021-2022 : https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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Back then yes. Now everything needs to be absolutely perfect to get even an inch.
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I can't believe people are unironically saying this with a screaming southeast ridge, trough over the west look in February. That's basically the nail in the coffin type 500 mb pattern for I95 snow prospects.
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https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsnownym/total-snow-in-nyc#kxsnownym-25feb. Bet under 5" its easy money.
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2010s was an entirely different era. It found every excuse to drop snow as soon as the temp fell below 32. Nowadays its the exact opposite.
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Yes absolutely but it doesn't really explain the recent lack of snow. As recently as 2021 the pattern wasnt so hostile to snow.
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The precip will come on the 50s-60s days and it'll be dry on the days cold enough to snow. How have we not learned this yet?
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Yup. You can safely bet under 5" and make a killing these days. People I guess haven't caught on to the fact that it doesn't snow in central park anymore.
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You cant get snow with warmth haha. Maybe the interior at high elevation does well but this is pretty much a worst case scenario type look for the I95 megalopolis. Anyone that lives near the I95 not waving the white flag for February is in tremendous denial.
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After the threat of suppression was made obvious after the beginning of the month it quickly corrected. Also the recency bias probably isnt why they went with around 8" in the beginning, its probably just because 8" is around the average Jan snowfall. If anything recency bias would lead you to think (correctly) that this Jan would be very below average in terms of snow. I'm sticking with my guns, its a multiyear low snow cycle. It isnt meant to snow much for us in the 2020s.
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To give you an idea of how hard we've been sucking recently, 9 inches is the total combined snowfall in central park from 22/23 to 23/24. If we actually reach 10" that'll be snowier than the previous two winters combined lmao
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100%, just look at the betting markets. Current prediction is around 3” for all of February. When you have to put your money where your mouth is you’ll be smart and aim low.
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Yup and we’re heading into a very mild-if not torch- pattern. Plus its much harder for the city to get snow these days so that 4-6 number you cite is probably more like 1-2 or 2-3 at best now.
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January will absolutely be snowier. NYC does not do well with any amount of warm anomalies. SE ridge pretty much kills any chance for snow around here. I would not be surprised if February does not pick up 2" even.
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Every single last teleconnection is wrong for NYC snow. The only good one is -EPO. The most important things to get snow into the city is a huge +PNA ridge in Montana + weakly negative NAO. Without one of these things you can kiss anything above an inch or two in February goodbye
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Absolutely! I'd much rather take the cold and worry about suppression giving me 1-3" instead of 0" and 1" of rain with a SE ridge type pattern.
