cleetussnow

GFS pretty much right on the BM

Doesn’t look a whole lot diffo from 18z or 12z for that matter

I think we are 4.5 days with the southern vort. Amateur eye says the vort in question, or one of them, comes across the baja peninsula late tomorrow.

I don’ think we’ll have clarity 4 days out on this one. I think model runs will be all over until gametime. We have to careful not to bite on any particular one, but we are getting three or four runs per day that are closer. Maybe there will be something later to latch onto if this one doesn't’ work out. like this or like this one

How much for Philly?

Thats what she said.

Storminess on the GFS run. I still feel like punts are the tenor of the season (besides blowtorch and rains to Maines), but I'll reserve judgement for now.

If its not going to snow, let’s be dry at least. The overcast and rain has been getting to people.

9 days? Is fine to speculate. Thats what we do here…the storm is there, albeit 500 miles south of 12z….so, it IS ‘there’ and thats not meaningless. Its been ‘there’ for a few days. Where is ‘there’ going to be? We can speculate on that, and I say, not where that map puts it.

Feb 10 2025

Looked good until the last 48 hrs. Rainer. Again, another punt. Let’s get within field goal range with one this winter and try to put up 3.

Kind of a shitty flyby if its not coming anywhere near close. And what is this unit of measurement canada geese? Dumshits.

We have seen bombs modeled far out on operational runs come to fruition for sure. Sandy was way out. I’d say 1/2 of the gfs operationals have had some sort of coastal for like 4 days now, and a storm of some variation on the others. Its like the operational has to reflect something distant early warning with red lights flashing, sirens wailing pattern developing across model suites. If it didn’t then its like WTF everywhere. If we are tracking a bomb for 15 days on op runs, thats a thriller to me, and we may be doing just that. Or not - but we’ll be 10 days op Euro today ish so lets’s see if we get a signal. I don’t have the Euro out to 10 myself. Lets hope its not another mirage this time and we can ride this baby in to the BM.

Exotic solutions

People obviously feel like the coin is loaded - i.e. it flips tails >50% by a lot, so they go with that. They think someone betting heads is wrong or wishcasting despite what models say. That said, I'm leery and already on the ratter train. Hopefully the Brooklynwx train stops at Feb 15th station and we can get on board that for awhile. long way off...

The Euro would be out to the 11th - how's it look?

It's possible that one biggie can get a lot of stations close to normal and we saw that during the 'snowy epoch' since the mid 90s. 2006 comes to mind where a single storm did that, and that was mid Feb. I haven't looked at the data in awhile but it seems we don't tend to get like six 5-inch storms to get to normal for CPK. Also, we don't normally just land on 'normal;' instead we do something like 15" or 45" and it averages out to normal ~30" over time. And when we get above normal, we get a couple biggies in it. I'm hoping we do get that big storm magic while the pattern is good, but I'm on the record for a ratter. It will still take some luck on timing even in a good pattern. Good patterns can absolutely fail to deliver.

In case anyone wants to see