If I could get a +PDO Nino I’d take my chances with that, but there’s no denying that the upcoming February pattern is damn good. I’d take it any day of the week.
@psuhoffman
correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t a +qbo Nino better than a -qbo Nino? I don’t see anything that would suggest a -qbo next year, could you provide some insight into what you’re seeing?
Doesn't the flip to a slightly -PNA/+EPO regime counteract the dry issue with strong -NAOs, while also guaranteeing that most systems that hit us will be cold enough for snow (due to that strong -NAO)?
Last time the GFS showed a major winter storm 300 hours out, it was damn good at forecasting where the mix line would be, as well as where the storm would track.
I genuinely thought you were bullshitting with 2013-14 being less snowy than this year to date, but they only received 8.1" of snow. February and March were actually the two snowiest months, each recording about a foot. Very interesting!
The AI-GFS is 54 hours of light snow and it works because it acts more like a classic Miller B and the coastal low forms that helps drop that extra precip, that's why it's ~5-10".