bncho

Heavy sleet at 195.

GFS needs to Jan 6 to turn into a Miller B instead of cutting.

I'm starting to think the wheel isn't 100% stupid.

We watch storm signals. The two purposes of the OP runs at long range is to see if there's a storm signal that matches up with the ensembles, and too keep the weenies happy. Jan 5-6 was highlighted as a possibility a few days ago but it wasn't the big bad threat. It seemed okay then, seems unlikely now, that's just how things trend. The big bad threat we're watching is Jan 7-10 (which is not more than two weeks out, it's more like 10-12 days out). It seems primed to do something. The OPs, while unlikely to come true, are keying in on what the ensembles are showing. Guidance has never looked this good in a while. At the end of the day, we can't accurately predict much from this range.

Look at the EPS when extended to 360hrs... Snow is for DC. 50/50 members show a trace or more of snow (100%) 41/50 members show 1+ inches of snow (82%) 24/50 members show 3+ inches (48%) 13/50 members show 6+ inches (26%) 7/50 members show 12+ inches (14%) 4/50 members show 24+ inches (8%) Wild times are ahead. I'd take a 1 in 12 chance for 24 inches by Jan 13.

GET HIS ASS ONLINE.

It's getting BECS-y from the Euro.

That Euro run might be more BECS-y though. 12-36 inches from Texas to Maine.

Euro getting HECS-y

WxBell is acting weird so it only lets me go from 252 to 294... BUT...

Euro shows a cutter. I condemn it and it shall be shunned to hell. (fuck)

The precip colors look like barf.

I will. Hbu?

I'm feeling a 2-4" and a bigger 6-12" from this pattern.

It flirted with the southern stream and is now riding up the coast at 312.

At 300hrs it's trying to flirt with southern stream energy in the gulf.

"One small step for snow, one giant leap for a snowstorm."

Hopefully we can see the storm on the 6z GFS and 00z Euro. Then we can start talking.

...or it could disappear.

Kuchera ratio is a little more robust on snow.

Storm signal? LOL

GFS getting HECS-y.

hopefully the storm system around the 7-10th hangs on.

Good. I can wait a few days for a bigger event.

18z redux????