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bncho

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Everything posted by bncho

  1. bncho
    This was the same lead time where everything shifted NW for the storm two days ago. We lost the long flat overrunning look on the 00z runs on Jan 19 and it became evident that we were going to amp up. The CMC was the first to show this.
  2. bncho
    GEFS much more NW, much better
  3. bncho
    congrats, richmond!
  4. bncho
    @AlexD1990 is going to get 30+" on this CMC run
  5. bncho
    That pink area dropped 19" of snow in 6hrs just a testament to the potential we have
  6. bncho
    Coastal is more tucked than 12z, it's just a little bit later than 12z as well
  7. bncho
    that's like telling the sun to be dimmer
  8. bncho
    The GFS is really trying, will it do it?
  9. bncho
    Our favorite JV model is running.
  10. bncho
    When tomorrow will the information from the first set of flights be ingested into the models?
  11. bncho
    The storm isn't necessarily in NAM range, but all the features that will tell us whether it goes OTS or up the coast will be in place by then, like you said.
  12. bncho
    d18? #blessed
  13. bncho
    The cold this week is truly historic and incredibly anomalous, especially considering our warming climate.
  14. bncho
    Ji is like 50 years old.
  15. bncho
    Yeah, but the EPS doesn't even come close to 8" of snow, so it's probably the CMC.
  16. bncho
    The CMC is probably skewing it.
  17. bncho
    Congrats, Chicago!
  18. bncho
    Here are the actual three major possibilities. 1. Jan 2000-like (and I guess Jan 1996-like, because of PSU ), a blizzard from Raleigh to Boston. 2. Jan 2022-like, a blizzard from the Outer Banks, Delmarva, Jersey Coast, and eastern New England. The I-95 corridor receives snowfall, but it's less than option one. 3. OTS; it's a fish storm. What is the most likely possibility? I am not sure. These are the three major possibilities, not all the possibilities.
  19. bncho
    EPS-AI is about the same as 12z, which means it's a good signal
  20. bncho
    Reminder that 3-6" shown there is more like 5-10" with ratios
  21. bncho
    the spire with 3 feet for bob chill!
  22. bncho
    That’s 8-12” with ratios, keep listening to TWC jazz.
  23. bncho
    Upgraded CMC is good
  24. bncho
    Isn't this closed ULL setup way more volatile than last system?
  25. bncho
    Wait for the D4 "model reshuffle" before getting worried about OTS
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