stormy

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's a lot of cold HP lol

Weaken that HP a little

5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yea its great thermals are all messed up though. 

925 is marginal upfront, 850 will work for most.

3 hours ago, Ji said:

i think the Feb 13-14 storm has disappeared 

Look again on the 18z GFS

13/14 comes to life on 18z GFS

18 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

What's coming up next year?

The CPC believes we will be close to -.75 C. come October.

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

What's probably coming next winter is a Nina. There are variations, just like there are with Ninos. They don't all suck for snow, but a lot of folks in the MA seem to believe that is the case.

Exactly right, Nina's don't all suck for snow.  21-22 was a  -1.0 Nina. I received 29 inches of snow.

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

If we just get to climo..winter is a disaster

43% of Nino winters since 1980  have given me below normal snowfall.

I would be happy to reach climo considering that stat..

Saturday afternoon I predicted that southern suppression would probably be a problem going forward through February because of NS strength. Other factors can also contribute to a generally dryer than normal precipitation pattern. This morning the EPS, CMC and GEFS all support that idea through PD.

Always remember, we can sometimes have significant snow with below normal precipitation.

What keeps me awake at night????

February - March 1 will witness several threats but southward suppression will disappoint many.

I fear the NS will be too strong.  I hope I'm wrong but I must be honest.

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Is that our HECS?

Do you really believe that??  Ji is being Ji.............................

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

even if 1899 happened or 1888…winter is still a C-.  One frickin week of winter so far.  C+ if they both happen.  

Just chill and wait for March 10!   You may be thrilled!!!!!!

Finally at 12z the GFS op and GEFS seem to be joining hands to set us up between 360 - 384.

Well established 50/50, steady stream of cold air coming down from northern Canada. Texas/Gulf Coast support both surface and aloft with developing rainfall in the deep south.

20 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I can’t believe we are looking at 480 hr snow maps. This has to be a new low. 

Kudos to you

7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

It shows lots of snow 

Hey, that's a hell of an observation!!!!! 

It is sometimes amazing how quickly attitudes and beliefs can change!!!  I am not trying to trash the control!  Just making an honest reaction to past opinions.

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

No, that's the control run.  It's essentially the Euro op run out to Day 45.  

A few weeks ago many on this board were trashing the "control" as being crap. What gives here?

3-21-18.....................   8.25" here in Augusta

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'll fall on the sword, March is too late for snow for me.  I'm ready to start gardening and for moth season by then.  But I'm in SoMD and we haven't had any good storms down here in March since I've been here so I'm ok with you guys getting a big storm and me missing out.  Sloppy wet snow isn't worth it in my book.  

I understand your thoughts completely.  Elevation folks like myself  are accustomed to March snow.

We do your March stuff later in April and especially May.

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This month is may test the non-scientific slightly superstitious theory of whether we can get a MECS or HECS to hit the last week of Feb...lol (I won't argue too much but given all the misses, I'll personally never be comfortable with that week until it does) Sounds like you're saying we'd actually need more luck BEFORE that week? (I.e. the waves coming after the 12th?)

When it snows, it snows, whether in 1824 or 2024.  Don't waste your life trying to time snow!

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Screw those people too. I don’t have to sell anyone anything. Snow is snow. The same people who complain about not getting any snow then are gonna be super picky about when it needs to snow and their idea of “too late” tosses like 1/3 of our snow climo. No. Not engaging in that BS nonsense. 

Give em hell boss, I have to be in your camp!

16 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The local results could be similar and 1960 was an amazing late winter period, but 1958 is the better analog because it was a similar strength Nino. And you can see the similarities in the pacific to the coming pattern on the 1958 h5 composite below. 

compare that to 1960 which was an enso neutral year and you see while there is definitely a similar nao blocking regime and subsequent eastern trough, the pacific pattern is not as close a match.  It’s not way off but it’s lacking the canonical Nino central pac low, or at the least is muted. 

This doesn’t mean the ground truth doesn’t end up similar but that’s why people are using 58 more than 60 as an analog. 2010 is an excellent analog to the coming pattern but obviously this is going to be displaced about 2 weeks later than 2010 which makes 1958 the best analog we have imo. 

Thanks!    Amazingly similar H5 over the MA with significant differences over the Pacific.

4 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Must have been flying Air Randy

I was on the pavement on my back putting triple chains on a 3 ton VDOT trk. in the middle of Rt. 250 on Afton Mt.  on April 7, 1971.

No danger because nothing was moving with dozen of semi's jackknifed in the heavy snow. Probably 8 inches on the pavement.

14 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

We had a ~3 week period from Feb. 14-March 5 or so in 2015 that was absolutely amazing around here.  And that followed a rather craptastic pattern at the end of January and into early February.  Yet we had epic cold starting Valentine's Day that year along with several decent events.  No HECS or anything, but wow, what a stretch of cold and snow!  That February ended up at like a -10 departure on temperatures, even after a relatively warm first week or so.

(ETA:  And even the record-breaking winter 2009-10, the winter came in concentrated waves...we had 14 days of amazing winter from the end of January through mid-February, and maybe another week or so in December around the HECS that  month).

You are spot on!!  So many are so quick to say that winter is over when March arrives. Nothing could be further from the truth!!!!!!   Dear God, so many heavy snow March periods in my lifetime, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1980, 1993, 1994, 2013.......

Sea level communities lose out in late March but elevation carries into the early part of April. I received 9 inches on April 7, 1971 at 1300 ft. !!!!!   At 1850 ft, April 7, 1971 received 17 inches...

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the guidance is even close with the coming period Feb 15-March 15, it would be really really difficult for us to escape without at least one significant snowstorm.  I am NOT saying a HECS, those take some luck even in the best patterns, but if we don't get at least one significant snowstorm I would be very surprised.  I think my over under would be one MECS and one SECS storm...more would take a little luck, less would take bad luck.  

I agree and I believe the greatest opportunity is Feb. 20 - March 15 based on the Euro weeklies.

Some may say, well this is only 25 days.    Historically, we have been buried in 15 days with several storms.

42 minutes ago, Ji said:

57-58

or 60

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

At 384...congrats northern 1/3 of Old Mexico!

That's usually about once every 3 or 4 years and mostly in December.