stormy

8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Hopefully this all does turn for the better and we develop a moderate El Nino come next Fall. Looks like we may break out of this La Nina, but we all remember saying that last year too.

I agree completely, we usually have more generous precipitation during an El Nino in winter because of a more active stj.

But, Jan. of 96 which was very wet averaged -0.9c. Go figure

33 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

1.85" since Veteran's Day.  Not great.

"Not great" is 20/20.  Most of Virginia and Maryland has been in an abnormally dry pattern since early September. There is nothing apocalyptic about this as some seem to believe I have been insinuating. Perhaps, my approach to this fact was incorrect. If so, I am sorry. This pattern has resulted in much of Virginia now being classified as being in a moderate drought. This is not minor and it is not major. But, it has serious implications if it persists much longer and it almost certainly is a factor in our low snowfall for many locations.

Last winter I was also in an abnormally dry pattern and received only 4 inches of snow compared to a normal 24 inches. This dry pattern broke in April and I received normal to above normal rainfall through the summer until another dry pattern began in September and persists. 

During January of 1996, I received 33 inches of snow during an abnormally wet month that witnessed 9.36 inches of qp compared to a normal 2.95".

Normal to above normal snowfall often correlates to normal to above normal precipitation. The reverse is also true. I convert snowfall to qp at a 10/1 ratio unless my 13 inch freeze resistant rain gage indicates otherwise.

This pattern will break and when it does, we may swing to above normal precipitation as Mother Nature tends to balance. Normals are only averages of extremes.

The question is will it break in February, March or April.  Our late winter snowfall is probably contingent on the answer.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am being flippant because I think he is going too far with this. Yes we are in a low level drought. And I don't mean to be rude towards farming interests and other areas where it is having an effect. But right now what we're experiencing is part of typical cyclical weather. And it's an effect not a cause when we discuss snow. The Nina pattern among other things is causing both the lack of snow and precipitation.  Droughts are an effect more than a cause. If droughts caused drought then we would never get out of them. Droughts tend to persist as long as the pattern causing them persists and then it ends and so does the drought. So sorry if I came off dismissive but I'm tired of the agendas. Between the global warming and the drought and the government conspiracy and NWP arguments we can't keep anything on topic anymore. 

We are not in a low level drought. We are in a moderate approaching serious drought. This is the worst precipitation deficit anytime during the past 40 years for January in Virginia. This is the TOPIC. Can you understand this?? We argue and thrash about snow. Snow doesn't fall copiously during a drought. Who cares about snow?? We need precipitation.  

2 minutes ago, Qaanaaq said:

It is not mundane to those it affects directly : if you live in a rural area reliant on groundwater, or you are a farmer, or your reservoir has stopped overflowing

Thank you my friend!!!!! You live in the real world instead of dwelling in fantasy!!!

54 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

drought

drout/

noun

 

1. a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall; a shortage of water resulting from this.

   synonyms:

   dry spell, lack of rain, shortage of water "this year's drought was devastating to cotton growers"

   • a prolonged absence of something specified.

     "he ended a five-game hitting drought"
   • archaic

     thirst.

Cobalt! I was beginning to worry about you!  You are struggling but piped in.

A prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall?? 45% of normal rainfall last 4 months. 6.17 compared to 13.81". You should be smart enough to recognize a serious problem for northern Virginia if this continues and recognize a connection to the disappointment of this winters snowfall threats.