stormy

Wow!!  Both the ECM and GEM give much of Augusta County 2 inches of rain during the next 168 hrs..

This Nino is producing. Many Valley folks have been praying for a wet Winter. December is making a solid contribution.

Yesterday afternoon, the 18z GFS op. made some flawed assumptions IMO that culminated in a major snowstorm for our region around Jan. 6 - 7.

IMO, a very erratic track would not survive the test of time and I so stated my opinion. It did not survive the test of time. Period, Stop

The period between Dec. 28 - Jan. 10 should be active and produce some snow for most of us. I believe most of us agree or at least hope for this reality. Accurate details are not available at this early date.  Early speculation will likely change, but that is ok for those who wish to speculate. I will not criticize those who throw cold water on my ideas. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

Enjoy your life and now I begin a busy day.

41 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Ya think? Really great analysis. 

You missed the erratic LP gyrations, Beckley s.w. to Ashville to Charlotte.  Cad on steroids?    Wait until tomorrow morning.

I am happy for all the Snow Geese who are honking !!!!

The op. GFS is very erratic with the track of L.P.  during the 336 - 378 hr. timeframe.  This is not likely to survive.

During the past week, we agreed that looking beyond 300 hrs. on an op. is foolish.

The GEFS does believe that L.P. will be developing in N.C. at 7 am on the 6th, transferring to eastern N.C. and eastern Va. at 1 p.m.     That can be a good sign.

Guess what?      The 18z GFS now transfers energy south at the last minute,  and dumps snow on Jan. 6.  

8 inches for me and 11 inches for D.C. by Sunday morning.  My wish with psu nearly came true!!!!!

Hooray!!!! 

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No snark, a 24 hour snow mean on day 15 of an ensemble is about the worst tool to use to identify potential 

Hey, guess what, we agree! 

For the past 2 hrs., I have been rather foolishly grilled because I simply told the truth about the Euro package today.    Many folks seem to be very protective of their desires which is rather juvenile.  As long as others support their dreams, everything is wonderful. Unfortunately that is not the reality of life.

In truth, life can be a bitch and then you die.

Hopefully, the 00z run of the EPS gives D.C. 12 inches of snow on the 5th.

Have a good night and as always, I appreciate your opinion.

17 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

lead poisoning strikes again 

Please be realistic, your insinuation demeans your normal demeanor. 

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Are you looking at literally anything besides the snow map?

Oh sure.  I often look at the 500 mb height anomaly, 500 mb windspeed, Surface temp., 850 mb. temp, 850 mb. run to run change, mslp precip. 6n hr., prob. mslp - 1005hpa. among others depending on availability. 

To make a long story short, the 12z Euro package was not excited today through Jan. 5 regarding any significant wintry threat.   Tomorrow, it might explode!

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks, sometimes I really wonder what some people are look at!

We should have at least some chances in the first week of January.

We're looking at what the model or ensemble says at a given point in time.

We are not fantasizing about what some people dream of.

Sure, we have good chances in early January.  Be patient, wait until tomorrow, the model of your choice may look better.    Don't condemn today because it doesn't satisfy your wishes.

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe we're looking for different things.  

Thanks, but Yes, we are looking for different things. My comment said "no significant winter weather".

This is all subject to monumental change, but at the point in reference,  I don't consider .2 inch of snow to be significant.

7 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Way too early to give up on early January but here is the 3-4 week outlook beginning on the 6th.  Features 55-60% chance of above normal temperatures and the same chances for above normal precipitation.  It's a two outcome prediction so the chances of below normal temperatures is 40-45%. 

They note that the AO may go negative as early as mid-January if a SSW occurs.  They believe the dominant forcer will be the strong ElNino and are not putting too much weight into the MJO due to large uncertainty. 

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

I totally agree that it is too early to give up on early January. I am invested in January 3 - 6.

The ECM/EPS runs may look much better tomorrow.  The joy of this hobby is like the weather in New England. "If you don't like it, wait 10 minutes and it will change".................

16 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

You cannot ignore this because the models over the past three seasons show you what should be happening in a normal winter pattern then flip out and say but this is what you get; just like in Willy Wonka:  "You Get Nothing"!!!  "Good Day Sir"!!!

The third word of your comment says it all:  ignore .......  Have a better day tomorrow.

49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro op only runs to D10.

You are correct. 

Instead of splitting between 240 and 360 hrs.. I decided to lump the two in tandem, covering the period up to Jan 6. This has both covering the 29 threat and the EPS the 29 & Jan 5 threat.

The 12z ECM and EPS say no significant winter weather through Saturday, Jan. 6.  Everything is too progressively zonal.

I really enjoyed reading the long ago memories from PSU this morning. You should finish that met. degree at some point. The personal reward would be tremendous.

This caused me to reflect on many memories of my own of snowstorms all the way back to the 60's. Though very young, I have fleeting recall of the March 5 - 8 1962 "Ash Wednesday Storm" that dumped 30 - 36 inches in my area. We were snowbound for several days before a bulldozer opened our road. Late Jan. of 66 gave us 37 inches in 7 days from 3 storms with 10 ft. drifts. Every highway in Augusta County blocked with drifts on Sunday, Jan. 30.

Regarding the GFS for the 29th, taken literally the op. gives me 5 inches at 10:1 but the surface temps at 36 - 37 degrees at the 1201 Ft. Valley Airport would likely make this an accumulation elevation event mostly above 1500 ft. even in pre-dawn darkness.

Much of the Valley is still in severe drought.

The 12z deterministic GFS gives warning criteria snow to the 81 corridor in the Jan. 4 - 6 time-frame. This of course will all change but I see this as a determination of pattern.

The 21 members of the GEFS give basic agreement to the pattern, but as earlier this week and last, it disagrees with its own parameters if looking at literal precip. type.  That is a repetitive flaw with this ensemble.

The 12z EPS is superior to the GEFS in this regard.

The 00z and 06z guidance is looking good for a colder, unsettled period during Jan. 1 - 5.

17.8 degrees this morning.

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A bit different timing, but the potential is there on the EPS as well. Favorable h5 looks in a Nino.. just a matter of time. Hard not to be a little excited for the possibilities the first week of Jan. Unless ofc you are an agenda driven deb.

I am on record as liking the first 5 days of January, for unsettled wintry conditions across the MA.  Cold air will be settling south from HB.  The STJ should be amplifying.

14 degrees early this morning in Augusta County.

That would be workable with about 170% of normal rainfall. We'll get our heavy snow later in Feb. and March.

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

You feel strongly about you wishes but this ain’t some damn political board where you pull that kind of stuff to bolster your hopes.

Sitting here right now I guarantee you the 10-14 day outlook will cover all the bases during the next 1-5 days .

 

I don't know how to deal with this.

14 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

i think it's one thing to post very high level maps trying to establish how the pattern might evolve over the ensuing two-three weeks.  But looking at individual storms and upper air temps on a localized level... come on man.

My post was basically focused on how the pattern may evolve over the next 2 - 3 weeks.

My 378 map was not intended to offend you.

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

I know. Yall should be ashamed of yourselves  

We are, but we're having a lot of fun!  

38 minutes ago, mappy said:

people who post 300hr+ maps should go sit a corner and think about what they've done wrong

Please allow me to address your concern. My post was a critque of the 240 hr. GEFS and why it probably won't work because of thermals, but it could set the stage for the next system.

Regarding 300+ maps, LOL, this site and thread is loaded with 360 and 384 maps.