stormy

18z GFS drops 5 inches of snow 25 miles to my northwest late tomorrow.  18z NAM gives 2-3 inches.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

For those still holding out hope, the latest edition of the weeklies suggests the h5 pattern becomes favorable (with below normal temps) the last week of March. Potentially a period to watch for a trip to the western highlands for a winter storm. For the rest of the region, a non-zero chance, but good luck.

Thanks Cape!

My thoughts recently are that we stay warmer than normal thru about March 10 and colder than normal the last 20 days of March with snow threats based on CFSv2 and weeklies.

Certainly, inland western areas will be more favored for snow. My snow season doesn't end until April 10.   4000 ft. within 20 miles of me doesn't end until  May.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

You keep doing this. Now isn't then. Who exactly are you trying to convince?

That  is a hell of a good question!

Rain with the incoming system focuses north of I-70.................................. Not a good trend.........

50 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Persistent DMV snow hole persists through March on latest WB EPS control run, mean not any better.  Guess the good news is there is heavier snow not too far north, south, east, and west!!!!  

Mother Nature always balances.  Syracuse has only had 31% of climo, DC has had 84%, I have had 29%.  I am happy, that is 28.6 % more than last year.   Rejoice and be happy with your blessings.

The immediate DC region is closer to normal snowfall this winter than the great majority on the east coast according to NOAA.   DCA 8.5 received, average ann.total 13.7 = 60%,  Pittsburgh 13 received, average total 42   31%,  Philadelphia 10 received 19 average  53%,  Staunton 7 received 24 average  29%.

This makes some people happy and some unhappy. There has been a gradual downhill slide in D.C. snowfall for 140 years according to this data, but look at the wildly fluctuating seasons with the recording breaking season not 100 but only 14 years ago.  We should be getting close to another big year.

17.5 degrees at 7 am.  That's 9 degrees colder than normal.

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I always collect repeating patterns in my head. The pendulum still always swings imo. 

 

 This is what I've observed in repetition over the last 7 years or so:

The most common place for legit polar/arctic air south of the polar regions has been Russia and China. The wrong side. This has been costly in the snowfall dept because of the pac jet influence and the fact that avg continental air that takes its time is not what gets it done down here. Troughs have consistently not progressed east as fast as they have in the past. I personally do not think this is permanent. It's a cycle that will break. Probably soon. With a warm Atlantic it may be more common for troughs to move slow and pull north easier but imho, we will have periods of legit continental cold carving and parking again. When I don't know. We will also have cold bottled up on our side and Siberia will have some warm winters. It's coming either next year or eventually lol. 

Classic blocking has been absent since 2011. We've had some good blocks but nothing like some of the cycles during the 2000-2011 period. We really haven't had a good cycle in a long time. That's actually normal. There is no doubt some sort of decadal or multi decadal bias with the AO and NAO. Go back thru monthly DJFM data and it's easy to see. 60s great, early/mid 70s bad, late 70s thru mid 80s good, 90s? Lol 1 legit blocky winter with mountains of snow surrounded by epic failure and messy stuff. If 2012 was the end of the blocking cycle, we're prob getting close to another. We'll know in the rear view. 

Monkey wrenches... lol. I don't bother analyzing winter in any detail anymore until November.  Our snowfall setups are fragile AF. Weird things make or break us. And they can do it repetitively. I've read a lot of winter forecasts here and many are incredibly well thought out but they rarely if ever verify the way they are presented except for easy mod/strong enso years. I don't like thoughts getting put in my head anymore because it messes up my observations and expectations. I much prefer to keep an open mind and adjust throughout met winter. I dont die on hills and I cannot make an accurate met winter prediction other than luck and good climo memory lol. 

Volatility... yep, wx is more volatile now. Pretty certain there. Swings are wild and storms in general have a propensity to boom with qpf instead of bust. Other thread can talk whys. I just accept that it's an influence that must be accounted for. This is probably going to save us with a future Nina or northern stream dominant winter. Nina's get some good cold snow but almost always on the lighter side as organized storms like to go west in Nina's. There sure seems to be more juice/enhancment nowadays with northern stream waves. For these reasons I don't fear a Nina at all. If anything I'm super curious about having a classic Nina right now. Especially if we are moving into a blocking cycle....

Booms... when things line up right we can  still go on epic heaters and we certainly will again. We'll probably break the all time single storm snow record here before long. Baroclinicty is often more potent now with Atl SSTs. Things have been out of sync with I95 coastals for a while. Not many nesis storms recently. I have a strong gut hunch some of the storms that make the nesis list in the next 10 years will jaw dropping. Us included. 

These are just some my thoughts based on everything I've seen. I could be embarrassingly wrong. Maybe what has been repetitive recently is the new normal and it gets worse. Idk. I'll keep watching and waiting. Recency bias kills objective thinking. I don't like some of the things I've seen recently with winter wx but I can say the same thing about every decade I've been alive. I don't know what the future holds but the end of big winters and big storms isn't something I'm remotely considering. If anything, the odds of a record breaking blizzard are probably higher now than they were. Just spitballin.

 

 

Bob, Thank You!!  I always enjoy reading your down to earth wisdom.

I only received .25 inch of snow but that is fine because I have about 7 weeks to go.  My greatest prayer in November was to have a wet winter to rebuild the water table. That has happened.

According to NOAA , many in the DC area are now around 100% of normal snowfall to date. DC has been very lucky this winter!!  As you said recently, Mother Nature really has not wanted to snow this winter along the east coast. Just look at these snowfall percentages of normal for this winter:  Roanoke 40%,  Richmond 11%, Blacksburg 21%, Pittsburgh 38%,  Cleveland 38%,  Scranton 61%,  Concord N.H. 70%,  Buffalo NY 76%,  Caribou Maine 75%.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Can we still get a storm like 1996 where it’s snowing hard at like 14 degrees at Dulles? 

Be patient, it will happen.

Since this morning, the 6 model blend for DC has dropped from 3.7"  to 3.0".

The 6 model blend for Augusta/Rockingham has dropped from 3.1 to 1.8".

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

2-4 was always the goal 

2 - 4 was my call last night. Did I find a nut??

Good News!!  The 3 model blend for DC increased from 2.6 to 3.4. A new 6 model blend for DC is 3.7".

This is the GFS, ECM, GEM, ICON,NAM3 and NAM12.   Kuchera

For west of the BR, this 6 model blend is 3.1".

THE WSW IS NUTS!!!!!!  

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nah. I think you will do better than that. 

My Final call:

3-5 for everyone in this subforum with 8 inch jacks in elevated areas. Maybe double digits up around Deep Creek. 

My final call:   2-4 for most in this subforum

6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This won't shift north (of 18z GFS) and you'll get 2.5" to 4.5" (6" WV). 

I am very happy to read this!

2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

isn't .39 in the .35-.55 range?

You are exactly right my friend out here on the western front!..   .39 is indeed in the .35 - .55 range.

This was for PSU and you nailed it.    I'm just playing semantics, don't you understand?

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

You new here? 

You admit that you follow him.  What more needs to be said???

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This has sneaky upside.  It's not really a clipper, its a progressive west to east wave that partially phases with the NS.  It's trending more amplified, but I think there is a limit to how far north it can shift given the boundary.  Lift looks maximized in the DGZ and mid level temps are cold.  Get this into the .35-.55 qpf range and this could reasonably become a 4-8" sneaky snowstorm.  

The latest GFS doesn't like your ideas. Only .23.- .39

The GFS is a little more amped at 18z and consolidates over NC.   GOOD RUN!

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Damn, short pump might be the winner this time

I hope!!!

35 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Can’t wait for 2nd and 3rd call…

 

Thanks for this from DT

The ICON and NAM have both shifted significantly north at 18z

Will DC become a snow-town Friday night??

This chart reveals very interesting data through Tuesday

Caribou, Maine has only received 75% of normal snowfall this 23/24 winter while DC has received 85% of normal.  What does this say?

Lack of snowfall is more than simply a lack of cold air. Other factors are involved.

By the way DC only has about an inch and a half to go over climo to date Friday night!!! 

32 minutes ago, MDSnowyWxTracker said:

Yeah this storm has more potential than most of the storms we dealt with this year.  Coming at night, somewhat of a decent cold air supply at the right time(even if a hit and run), decent precip shield and the track. This reminds me a lot of 2013-2014 storms we encountered.  The track especially, if I were to guess, once over VA mountains we could see a nice intensifying of the storm. I do think this likely could be a general 4-8 for many as we get even closer but I will differ to the better posters on that.

Anything coming from the Texas, Panhandle always has potential.

The 3 model Blend for DC has ticked up from 1.9 to 2.6 inches since 8 am.

The same Blend has ticked down west of the BR from 3.1 - 2.9".