stormy

8 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, its over. Not enough cold air to make something happen outside of interier northern New England or maybe at 3,000+

Don’t worry, I’ll stick around for severe weather season!

I am very surprised that a supposed professional would say its over on March 4.

A few hours ago, Chris78 gave me good advice...... Thank you Chris!

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest weekly still likes the late March period.

Go for it Will!!!!!!!!!!

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Not just the Central Valley.  This is an all-too familiar pattern setting in again.

I pray that your wrong but I have concerns.

This would be nice but spoil dining plans:

.38" last 24 hrs.. The Central Valley has been dry for the past month.  The cutoff has been the Blue Ridge. Charlottesville received 1.00" past 24.

I'm looking forward to a warmer day after today's chill at 43 with a 10 - 15 mph southeast breeze.  7 degrees colder than normal.

March 1 1962 was 71 degrees............................................. 5 days later, Staunton received 30 inches of SNOW..........................

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern is changing... but I see some of the same flaws in the "better" pattern that has plagued us for years now even when we get a better longwave configuration.  Add in the fact we are talking about late March and we're at the edge of when snow is even reasonably possible and that was before the current torch we've been stuck in for 9 years...I dunno man I am not saying the chances are 0.  I realize crazy shit happens.  Yes the pattern looks better.  But by far the most likely outcome even if we do get a perfect track wave is just another perfect track rainstorm.  Snowshoe probably gets a big snowstorm late March or early April.  This probably saves the spring ski season for New England...but I am skeptical this does much for us locally.  

My week ago prediction was colder and wet from March 15 - April 15.  This fits in. Regarding early April snowfall?  April 7, 1971, 8 inches in downtown Waynesboro with 17 inches at 1800 ft. on Afton Mt...

18 degrees this morning.  That's 10 degrees colder than normal. Snow is falling at Snowshoe at 3:15.

GFS loses interest as the source of cold air erodes to the east instead of southwest :

Chris 78 posted a possibility earlier today that I agreed with and posted about.

Guess What??  The 18z GFS is more bullish!....................................................................

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah and while we are at it let’s create a 1040 over Michigan and a 985 over the outer banks. As long as we are just making up shit

That 1040 over Michigan would be ok with a 977 over Norfolk

14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Late next week looks interesting.

12z doesn't snow on us but looks like it could.

I agree, If this verifies as presented, reposition that 1029 HP sw to Ontario as 1036 and things could work out.

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS control ....seeing a storm at the end of March to our south is a nice sign....

It's a given with the pattern I posted about earlier

I am predicting a pattern reversal with colder than normal temperatures and wetter than normal from March 15 - April 15.

This would almost certainly create accumulating snow threats for western areas with elevation.

A persistent trough along the east coast should create these conditions.

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

So now I gotta watch out for blue robes and hoods now.
 

I think the winters we’ve seen that past 3 years are our new normal. It’s never going back to our childhood.  We’re the new Richmond I’m afraid. 

 

Until next year or the year after.

On 2/23/2024 at 1:50 AM, Jrlg1181 said:

Only received 0.93 inches of total precip this month , following 6.58 for January.... Since mid November we have for the most part made up for that crushing drought in the Valley last year, but heading into the spring growing season down here we certainly don't want a drier than normal March following this February... The drought may have ended but it was still going strong only 3 months ago... Not sure if the ground water level has fully recovered yet...

Good News!!  We have returned to near normal.  It bottomed out at 91.34 ft. on November 21, now up to 71.16 ft..

22 hours ago, WesternFringe said:

I chased snow by Jeb hiking up to Little Bald Knob (4350’) in northern Augusta County yesterday. It was awesome!

How close to the little pond to the right of the trail was this?

Low of 18 this morning.   2" snow yesterday afternoon at Wintergreen.

32 degrees with light snow at 5:35. 

 A heavy dusting with 1 - 3 inches  in elevations above 2500 ft with traffic problems.

Moderate snow and 34 degrees at 4:45.  Talked to a friend 20 miles northwest who reports .50" - 1.00". 

2 hours ago, snowfan said:

None of the local nws offices are enthused about this. PIT has Davis getting 1.5” and Charleston has Snowshoe receiving about the same. So snow looks likely, but those higher end amounts seem not so likely. From Charleston…

Lowering temperatures behind today`s front should support snow or a
rain/snow mix to the north and along the higher terrain. Mainly rain
is expected to the south, though some flakes could briefly mix
in before precipitation ends. Snow accumulations of an inch or
two are possible for portions of southeast Ohio and northwest
West Virginia this morning, and in the higher elevations of the
northeast mountains by the end of the day. Outside of these
areas, any accumulation should be minimal.

The 06z NAM 3k gave some 3500 elevations 15 miles to my south up to 6 inches. It has backed way off at 12z and now puts the best snow a little north of me. The 12z GFS dropped from 3" to 1".

Just a little conversational snow would be nice.

March has historically dumped some heavy snow on my area.  I have high hopes!

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

If I were to drive out there this afternoon. Where would you go to see this happen? I was kinda thinking about hiking today. I'm near Annopoils but can drive out there.

Swift Run Gap on Rt 33 a few miles east of Elkton at the Skyline Drive is about 2400 ft.. North on the Skyline Drive would quickly put you up to 3000 ft. elevations.

Good luck and have fun!

Weak low pressure over southern Ohio will move southeast across west/central Va. this afternoon and evening. NAM/GFS/ECM and GEM all give accumulating  snow across portions of Augusta late afternoon and evening. Surface temps. below 2000 ft. will be marginal though column temps. look fine. Accumulation expectations range from 2 - 6 inches. This will be an elevation event for accumulations.  2000- 4000' 2 - 6 inches,  1000 - 2000 ft. a dusting - 1 inch.

Strong Miller A development March 3 gives Augusta County 4 inches of rain!