stormy

It also looks great to me compared to earlier runs.

18z NAM shifts qp south thru Sunday. WPC camps out front near Winchester thru Sat morning then crawling south .

Unfortunately, I'm on the extreme south edge of that.

I would hope that north/south/east and west all get a good soaking................... The extended NWS slows the front down because Sterling increased my POP on Sunday from 30% to 60%.

48.6 felt kind of chilly this morning. Interesting observation: For Augusta, the qp received yesterday was less than half of most expectations from 12 and 18z Monday.

That needs to shift south by about a hundred miles

.58" total last 2 days. Not bad. The first 21 days of June produced a glorious .09"..

.42" yesterday in the central valley. Light rain began this morning at about 7:00.

When I flashed a Storm Alert to my 1000 patron Newsletter at 2:23, I increased my POP for tomorrow from 25% to 60%. Lo and behold, when Sterling revised with the afternoon package at 3:00, they increased their POP from 20 - 60% for tomorrow. My call had nothing to do with skill or expertise. But, 5 models cannot be denied! Hopefully, El Nino is beginning to knock.

The thing about a strong El Nino winter is that expectations are always high but reality can sometimes be a disappointment. 72-73 at +2.00 only gave Augusta County 3.0" of snow. 86-87 at +1.60 gave Augusta 52" of snow. 91-92 at +2.30 only gave Augusta 3.3" of snow. 09 - 10 at +1.50 average gave Augusta 63" of snow. The thing about 09-10 is that both the NAO at -2.00 and the AO at -3.50 were strongly negative. I think that was important.

I have enjoyed reading all the thoughts on this thread during the past hour. I see that J.B. has defaulted to 97-98. I pray that he is correct. 97-98 averaged +2.20 Nino, the ECMWF is closer to 3.00 for this coming winter. As most realize, we are in a serious to extreme, drought. To prevent hardship for many in our society, we need lots of rainfall or melted snow over an extended period of time. I pray for a repeat of 97 - 98 because it was the wettest winter of any of 9 strong Nino's back to 1950. I received 22.62" of rain and melted snow compared to a normal 8.40" of precip. in DJF. Regarding snowfall in 97-98, 33 inches was 9 inches above normal for Augusta County. Regarding NAO or AO for Augusta snowfall ?? The NAO doesn't seem to be really important, but the AO should be firmly negative according to historical observations. During 97-98 the AO averaged -2.00 and the NAO averaged about -.30".

NWS from Sterling has slammed us in Waynesboro with a 70% likelihood of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms late night and Friday morning before noon. I'm still waiting for the first drop at 7:00 and the predictor radar of course keeps the rain over southeast Va..

Chuck: If that central trough digs deep enough to put us in a long-wave southwesterly flow, that will be good.

That encourages a worsening drought over the MA.

I have shed the shorts and short sleeve for sweats and long sleeve flannel! What a beautiful early fall morning!! 44.7 at 6:10. Staunton record low for June 16 was 43 in 1961. Charlottesville from the same air mass 48 in 1961. D.C. record was 50 in 1917. Va. Tech Canaan report at 6:10 was 34.7.