stormy

I like that south to north trajectory that has set up this afternoon in advance of the trough. For my Valley area, this is more conducive to significant rain.

Many possibilities during the last half of September. Will the Atlantic Tropics finally become involved??

CPC still says wet 6-10 day and 3-4 week, 8-14 day...... Let me think for a while.

Historically, strong El Nino's are inclined to turn wet during the fall and they don't always telegraph the turn. If this fall indeed turns wet, late September can certainly be a turning point. NOAA may or may not signal that turn. If CPC predictions had been correct for the past 6 months, my soil would not be parched now.

4 inches of rain by Sept. 26 looks wonderful!!

I was biased by JB and his "El Nino Madness". He makes some very good points with his language and illustrations. Your westerly wind burst may be interesting. Thanks

Nino is dying . 65-66 is becoming more likely

The Weather Underground and TWC can't agree on the position of the front. Is it over Erie or Morgantown??? This is important for the next 48 hrs. Absolutely amazing for what is supposed to be high tech in September of 2026.

More background information for you: the Global High Resolution Atmospheric Forecast System runs on high performance supercomputers and utilizes advanced physics models, machine learning and AI Algorithms to ingest data automatically. The Weather Company explicitly relies on human oversight.. A team of over 100 expert meteorologists continuously reviews, validates and refines the model's outputs.

After you get the 10 day forecast for your town, you can select your current day for detailed hourly forecasts.

The raw generated data is not publicly available. The easiest way is thru the TWC app for your town or city. It is rapid update hourly and sometimes is off the wall but it nailed the details Friday and Saturday.

The GRAF was 3 for 3 Friday 5 pm - Saturday 10 pm. .89" rainfall from 2 events detailed by Graf 6 hrs. pre-event while the mets. at NWS played a dismal second fiddle. The first event on Friday pm was hilarious as the SPC had a Watch posted and the NWS gave a 60% prob. of storms. Graf said, "sorry folks, it ain't gonna happen" It did not happen. I do not expect 3 for 3 to continue but that was a very impressive 30 hr. period for Graf.

.25" rain from 10:30 - 11:40 The Graf model from 5 am was exactly right with 100% rainfall while NWS was only 30%. At less than 12 hrs. it seems that Graf is more accurate than NWS.

Graf updates every hour. It still says 100% rain for Augusta between 10:30 and noon.

Scottsville received 3.20" yesterday evening! Augusta received 4 sprinkles. Today, NWS says 30% and Graf says 100% for Augusta!! This will be a real test for Graf.