stormy

Our last shot at any rain is 3 - 11 pm as the front approaches. After that, my 66% of normal August rainfall shrinks.

Thanks Chuck! During July in Augusta County, I only received 62% of normal rainfall. During August, I have received 66% of normal thru 8-20.

May was my wettest month. July and August have been dry.

Make that 18,000 ft. flow 290 - 360

Down-sloping has been a problem this summer as, all to often, 18z flow has been 290 too 360.

You are exactly right! West of the BR we have fallen into a God-awful pattern whereby feedback from previously existing conditions, foils the best and brightest of the models. The only hope we have is a +2.9 - 3.0 Nino breaking this pattern between Oct 1 and Dec. 31. Earlier today the Euro said, this will happen. The problem is that the Euro is not smart enough to fathom the feedback atmospherics of a serious Drought. Sorry Ji, "elite" is not perfect.

Without getting technical with a bunch of Nonsense. I'm still in serious Drought. 50 years ago, before anyone heard of Models, my grandfather said, "all signs fail in dry weather"

I'm getting it from WeatherBell

The 06z Euro gave Augusta County 1.05" by Sat. at 12z. At 12z it came to its senses with .10". The Euro has degraded to Graf league.

57 years ago this week, 124 people died in Nelson County from the remnants of Camille.

Convergence will be almost non existent but a weak front approaching at peak heating should be enough to encourage at least some convective activity late this afternoon and early tonight. Charleston West Virginia experienced some flooding with 4.08" Sunday. My .71" was the most since July 4!

Nothing is guaranteed just because we are having a Nino. October, November and December of 1965 experienced a strong Nino at +2.0 A severe drought was in progress. Dulles received a total of .46" during November of 65. December of 65 was worse at only .42"! The heavy snows of late Jan. 66 finally brought moisture.

The .47" received today is the most from 1 event since July 21.

This looks nice Will !! I guess I can look forward to 1.40" rain the next 40 hrs. That's more than the total for the first half of August!!

An increasingly active subtropical jet. The 2 analog years are 97/98 and 15/16. In 15/16, Sept. went from a dry August to 9.90" for Sept and 5.70" for Oct. 97/98 went from a dry August to 4.58 in Sept. and 6.46" in November.