stormy

My 4 model blend increased from 1.6" at 8 am to 2.4" at 1 pm.................... I will predict 2 - 4 inches for Augusta in my newsletter a little later, with snow developing 1 - 3 am. For D.C., my thoughts are .5" - 1.0" with flurries by 5 - 6 am.

Congratulations Terp.!!

Unfortunately, this map from the WPC says it all.

Yes, much of the east coast was wrecked.

Yes, 18z gives me 1.6" compared to 12z at .7"

I remember that Great Ash Wednesday storm.

We'll be close to a 50/50 but the trajectory of the HP is a little south of ideal at Ogdensburg.

One great reality is that 850 temps. should not be an issue on Friday.

Sunshine and 40 degrees at 1pm.

That's a nice bump from 3.7 to 8.8".

.20 zr and trace of sleet. Rds, minor to moderate. 32.1/31 The person who composed the AFD from Sterling this morning is about 12 hrs. slow with the threat on Friday. "The system may spread some very light precipitation on its northern side Friday night before pushing offshore on Sat." Under slept?? The Blacksburg AFD is spot on, "Next system moves in Friday morning, snow transition to wintry mix possible". That tracs the Euro.

Patience is a great virtue.

14.5 at 7:15.... Davis Vantage Vue

That eastward "severely misplaced" translating HP as you say, would not be misplaced with a 50/50 LP. For decades the 50/50 low has been a gold standard for a major winter storm because it will lock the cold air in by blocking eastward translation of western New England HP.

100% correct. Possible, but the 12-2 system has the deck stacked against it. No 50-50 low, no Lakes to New England H.P. as a cold air source. And of course, our long time drought pattern that no one fully understands is again an aggravating factor. The GFS dropped the QPF from 1.48" for Augusta at 06 11-27 to .60" at 06 11-28. I don't have enough fingers to count how many times this has happened during the past 4 months.