stormy

There is no guarantee that an "EL Nino" will ever "kick in" I have on more than one occasion said that El Nino guarantees nothing. 1965 had a +2.1 Nino. November and December of 1965 were very dry for D.C.. Less than a half inch for each month. There are far too many who think with a strong Nino, we will soon turn wet. That is simply not guaranteed. It is likely, but not guaranteed.

The Thursday/Friday rain chances seem to be evaporating as the front lags to the northwest and energy skips by to the North.. Drought conditions continue for many and El Nino guarantees NOTHING.

46.1 at 7 am

49.5 at 7 am!!!

Augusta County rainfall in storms Sat. eve ranged from 0.00 to 0 .86". I came in with 0.52".

That's called Global Cooling

Our last shot at any rain is 3 - 11 pm as the front approaches. After that, my 66% of normal August rainfall shrinks.

Thanks Chuck! During July in Augusta County, I only received 62% of normal rainfall. During August, I have received 66% of normal thru 8-20.

May was my wettest month. July and August have been dry.

Make that 18,000 ft. flow 290 - 360

Down-sloping has been a problem this summer as, all to often, 18z flow has been 290 too 360.

You are exactly right! West of the BR we have fallen into a God-awful pattern whereby feedback from previously existing conditions, foils the best and brightest of the models. The only hope we have is a +2.9 - 3.0 Nino breaking this pattern between Oct 1 and Dec. 31. Earlier today the Euro said, this will happen. The problem is that the Euro is not smart enough to fathom the feedback atmospherics of a serious Drought. Sorry Ji, "elite" is not perfect.

Without getting technical with a bunch of Nonsense. I'm still in serious Drought. 50 years ago, before anyone heard of Models, my grandfather said, "all signs fail in dry weather"

I'm getting it from WeatherBell

The 06z Euro gave Augusta County 1.05" by Sat. at 12z. At 12z it came to its senses with .10". The Euro has degraded to Graf league.