stormy

.83" last 18 hrs. About 12 miles to my south at Sherando in the BR western foothills, 2.26".

only .06" since 1:30..................... Will this be the usual under- performer???????????????

Rain began at 1:30. I need 3.77" to erase the drought for the year.

The latest guidance takes the heaviest rain next week west of the B.R...............................

36.7 this morning. A 4m model blend for Monday - Thursday rainfall is now 2.38". That would be heavenly!!!

43.8 at 6:45

46.1 degrees at 5:20. This beat the NWS expected low of 53 by far!!!!!

1.25" last 18 hrs. in the Valley.

.50" rain at 6 pm

My greatest fear for rainfall potential is the strength of the Atlantic Ridge over the weekend.

The 00z 5-1 GEM pushes the heavy rains north into Pennsylvania.

Precipitation is precipitation, winter or summer when looking 1 - 7 days into the future. The greater the expected sum total, the greater the error factor. The WPC has already changed significantly in the past 20 hrs. with qp amounts for the next 7 days.

The qp projections for next week will change at least 12 times in the next 6 days. What seems to be the sweet spot at this time will probably change during the next 48 hrs. Lets don't repeat the normal winter mistakes. The huge potential shift is that in conflict with usual patterns, low pressure surface and aloft will dominate instead of high pressure.

There are signals from different directions that we could turn wet from May 3 - May 13. Will it happen?? 30% probability.....................