stormy

3 hrs. later, I'd say that a very significant change occurred with the 12z GFS

Icon trying to shift west with trough

Its not over. There are 12 more more model runs between now and Friday. I can guarantee that significant changes await. They may be east and they may be west, or northwest.

If the 06 GFS verifies (it won't).... Bob Chill would have snow half way up to his knees, While I settle for 3 or 4 inches............ That's ok, I'm not greedy.

I'm talking about a coastal position because of the trough evolving to a negative tilt.

Instead of 150 miles southeast of Hatteras, it should be on the coast at Morehead City.

Thanks Bob!! Your input is always treasured!!!!! I wish you could or would give your synopsis on the weather every day during maybe mid afternoon after digesting the 12z runs. I always learn from your laid back presentation.

Hey Bob! Good to here from you. I always admire your common sense knowledge. You're guidance is well taken. 2 questions It seems that the Euro deterministic has a difficult time differentiating between sleet and freezing rain. There was a large swath of significant freezing rain southwest/northeast across western Va.. I posted Sunday morning that I didn't buy this because 925 temperatures were too cold. In fact, freezing rain was minimal. Thoughts? Last, the AI ens. doubled the received amount of snow on December 8. It nearly tripled the amount received for Augusta County last weekend. Thoughts?

I have records on the models that go back a week. This is not nowcasting day of event. 18z last Tuesday 1-20 found the GFS giving Augusta 3.1". 18z 1-20 Euro gave Augusta 13.2"

You and I can agree to disagree and be friends. The GFS was closer at 12z Saturday for Augusta at 5.9". The Euro was 6.8" I didn't record the NAM but suspect it was closest.

I'm not at all surprised at the 12z Euro. I posted at 7 am that I was not enthusiastic about the EURO. But, the GEM, GEPS, GEFS and GFS all shifted toward snow. I'm honestly not enthralled with the deterministic Euro after it insisted run after run last weekend that I would receive .80 - .90" of freezing rain. I received .01" freezing rain. Total failure. And, the Euro AI ensemble gave me 15.5" to 16.5" of snow for 24 hrs. pre event Friday/Saturday. I received 3 inches of snow and 3 inches of sleet. The Euro family needs improvement to regain credibility with anyone paying close attention.

Just talked to a friend who lives at 2700 ft near Big Meadows. She said she never received a flake of snow but a couple inches of sleet.

RUN to run consistency is important, regardless of which model is being looked at.

On Jan. 30, 1966, the center of the storm was near New Bern, N.C. during late afternoon when I received 3 inches of snow in 1 hour with a surface temperature of +5. I will look forward to future runs but the 00z surface reflection looks too far offshore for heavy snow over Virginia. This 500 mb position would be interesting!

Finished blowing sleet about 15 minutes ago. It was too heavy for the plow. Approaching 6 inches, 3 inches snow. 2.8" sleet. HRRR predicting .50" zr from 2 - 7. Still 10 degrees.