stormy

18z GFS Way North

Is it possible that the pattern is beginning to feel the warming ENSO?

The model which started this train has lost interest. Since the 12z ensembles are in, my 7 model blend has dropped to 5.15".

My 3 model blend from the big 3 is 9 inches out here in Augusta. 12 from the Euro and GEM make up for the 3 from the stingy GFS. QP is 1.90" Euro, 1.35" GEM and .35" GFS Kuchera no good this time around.

I don't waste my time trolling. Just because I stepped on your toes after your instigation , you are still sore. Chill out man. Life is too short for that kind of crap.

I am happy where we stand after the 12z GFS and GEM!! The GFS really didn't do anything with a heavy dump on Augusta this morning because it was only 1 out of 3. Now, we have 2 out of 3 liking a dump of snow on Va., 14 and 15 . 2 out of 3 is much better than 1 out of 3, even if the Euro comes in dry.

IMO, this model has no credibility anymore, because of occasional unpredictable occurrence of highly inflated totals. It gave me 12" for 3.5" on December 8 a few days ahead of event. Jan. 20, it gave me 16.5" for 6" on Jan. 25.

Yes, "next weekend still has potential" though the father AI has lost interest. EPS, GEFS and GEPS are all interested.................. GFS Op will last about 4 more hrs..

We will have a snow shower at 10:37 pm that will deposit .06" of nothing.

The Euro AI deterministic leads the way then drops it! That was a crazy 06z call by the AI anyway. I don't receive 11 inches of snow with a primary over Toledo! The deterministic GFS and EURO pick it up at 12z. I like the EURO solution. 10 inches of snow with a primary to my south is much better than 11" with a primary 300 miles northwest.

The H5 charts may be fine but the ECMWF AI ens often grossly inflates the snowfall expectations. Gave me 16.5 inches last week and I received 6. On Dec. 8 it gave me 12 and I received 3.5".

Thank You very much for your great wisdom!! IMO, 2" of QP over a 48 hr. period with surface temperatures above 40 would be required to remove the iceberg. That ain't goin to happen....................... We will gradually sweat away during February unless topped off by JI.........................

Thanks! I have fished off of this pier many times.

H5 is not far away from the EPS.