stormy

Thanks for your expert analysis. It is greatly appreciated .

I appreciate your suggestion, but No, I won't ignore them. I fully understand that they are supposed to be more accurate than the deterministic models because of more data input across various parameters. A higher skill score should be achieved, especially for complex systems or longer term considerations. I will develop a comparison chart for ECM/EPS and GFS and GFS ens. Saturdays rain will be a good first comparison.

I ask everyone a question............................... Are we grasping at straws when we look at Ensembles????? The ensembles ARE A DISASTER...................... I ASK EVERYONE, what have you learned from the ensembles in the last 10 days?????????? Are we losing reality because of focus on ensembles.????

NW flow is good for Elkins or Oakland. It usually kills east of mts., winter or summer.

Euro increases Augusta qp from .69" to 1.08" Saturday. More moderate rates east of cyclogenesis over Tenn./Ky.

A disturbing ECMWF that has dropped from 1.19" rainfall to .69" from 00z to 06z. A 43% drop in 1 run is not good! Maybe 06 was a fluke and will return at 12z?

This is useless CRAP on January 6.

You are close. Too much NW - SE flow is a dry flow and discourages the pattern that we need with an active STJ.

I'm at 59.

I'm from St. Louis.............. I want to measure it in my gauge. A "soaker" must be more than an inch. A quarter inch only lays the dust for about 36 hrs..

30 years ago Thursday it had snowed for 50 hrs, giving us 30". 10 days later, I had 3.20" of rain and a flood!

My grill will be humping in about 2 hrs....................... 2 bone in skin on split chicken breasts, side smoked over seasoned apple slabs. 3 ozs. of Black Jack on the rocks and I will be set. Dinner is served at 6.

This is MacDonald Carey.........................................................................................

Capsulized reality: December averaged 4 - 5 degrees colder than normal. A January thaw will occur for the next week - 10 days. There are mixed signals after that. Snow threats have evaporated until after the 15th. Pray for rain to alleviate our serious drought. Smile and enjoy the thaw, as I will be. Crank up the grill for a backyard barbecue!!

OOz NAM says no precipitation thru 84 hrs. How much longer can this continue????? Other guidance says Precipitation outlook is 000