stormy

As I suspected 3 hours ago!

I could get enthusiastic about this.

This puzzle will have many moving parts, but, as currently depicted, the 95 corridor probably does better than western areas for the 18th and 19th. I don't like complication.

The GEM gives me 6.2 inches at 240 with snow still falling. -14 at 850 dictates no mixing issues.

This is just right!! I told my newsletter crowd yesterday afternoon that Sat or Sun., 17th or 18th, was the first genuine threat!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for your expert analysis. It is greatly appreciated .

I appreciate your suggestion, but No, I won't ignore them. I fully understand that they are supposed to be more accurate than the deterministic models because of more data input across various parameters. A higher skill score should be achieved, especially for complex systems or longer term considerations. I will develop a comparison chart for ECM/EPS and GFS and GFS ens. Saturdays rain will be a good first comparison.

I ask everyone a question............................... Are we grasping at straws when we look at Ensembles????? The ensembles ARE A DISASTER...................... I ASK EVERYONE, what have you learned from the ensembles in the last 10 days?????????? Are we losing reality because of focus on ensembles.????

NW flow is good for Elkins or Oakland. It usually kills east of mts., winter or summer.

Euro increases Augusta qp from .69" to 1.08" Saturday. More moderate rates east of cyclogenesis over Tenn./Ky.

A disturbing ECMWF that has dropped from 1.19" rainfall to .69" from 00z to 06z. A 43% drop in 1 run is not good! Maybe 06 was a fluke and will return at 12z?

This is useless CRAP on January 6.

You are close. Too much NW - SE flow is a dry flow and discourages the pattern that we need with an active STJ.

I'm at 59.

I'm from St. Louis.............. I want to measure it in my gauge. A "soaker" must be more than an inch. A quarter inch only lays the dust for about 36 hrs..