stormy

28.0 early this morning with a heavy frost.

The ECM AI models give my area .30" - .40" 4 - 8 Sunday evening. The ECM deterministic is way over-hyped according to the WPC at .90".

Nov. 11, 1987, I received 6 inches with drifting. I am fine with a 6" paste job in mid November. This anomaly gets my attention. If you're bored of 6" paste jobs in mid November, you must live in Copper Harbor, Mich.

46 years ago tonight, October 9, 1979, Augusta received 9 inches of snow!!!!!!! Trees broke up like a cat. 2 hurricane from the weight of the snow on leaf covered limbs!!! 70 degrees the day before. 34.1 this morning, going to freezing tonight!!

I hope it verifies for you because you can certainly use the rain. Me, no big deal as the growing season is over and the farmers can certainly use dry ground to harvest crops. I watch these indexes daily. All too often, 4 inches verifies to less than an inch at 5 - 7 days. A couple months ago 5 inches verified to .30". If we had received 50% of the 5 - 7 day predicted rainfall during the past 3 months we would not be in moderate to severe drought now. This forecast does give support to my admonition a few weeks ago about autumn tendencies often being a harbinger of the winter snowfall pattern. 77-78 is an excellent example. Storms from the south are cold storms on the north and west perimeter.

That's a joke................................. 5 day QPF changes every 12 hrs.

Friday night ?? Mountain Valley frost possible ...........................

Again, low pressure to the south over NC, with high pressure to the north over eastern NY. Cool with .73" rain. Could be a snow threat in January..........

.73" here.

War between the models. GFS, 50 mi. north at 12z in western Carolina's but still less than 1.0" for Augusta. ECMWF a little north at 12z. Augusta QP increased about 1.0". Now 3.84"

The EURO is backing off with the 06z run.

This is 24% of normal thru 9-21.

.16" last night makes .77" total rain for Sept.

This is encouraging.

The .53" yesterday elevates my September total to .60". That's 22% of normal for Sept. 18.