stormy

The best thing I can say this morning is this threat is still 4 days away. Anything can happen in 4 days. Yesterday morning I said don't plan tailgate parties until Saturday. That applies again today. One big question to me has always been. Will the main action be tucked into the coast or too far offshore?? Yesterday, the Euro couldn't find the storm because it was half way to Bermuda before it really cranked. Things are a little better this morning but the GEFS is way out there. The benchmark for a big hit west of 95 is usually an east longitudinal alignment with Norfolk. South or even southwest is a different ballgame. Eastern folks can do somewhat better a little offshore, but this is too much for most. (Unless it changes) Always trying to be positive, I'm happy that my 7 model blend this morning is 2.1 inches.

You could be exactly right! As you say, "we shall see"

At 7 am, I said that the old timey Euro can't find the storm. It's still looking. This is very early at nearly 5 days out. It might still find it.

To be exact, March 10, 1958. 12.5 inches at Staunton.

Though I have not looked at it, your description is similar to the 6z GFS.

yeah, the 6z EURO is the lightest of the bunch, strings everything out too much over 2 days. Hopefully it will consolidate with 12z.

I'm sorry if I caused anyone any great consternation with my stark realism. No malice was intended. Cheer Up! Most of the models seem invested for Sunday. But, its probably not wise to participate in any tail gate parties until Saturday.

yeah! First impressions are not always lasting impressions. It was suppressed at 114 but the cold press lagged allowing too much energy to scoot up the wov This morning at 06z that primary over at Charleston need to be down at Charlotte. The AI deterministic really slams us as well as the GEM. They must have tweaked the AI Ensemble. Finally, the poor old timey EURO really can't find the storm.

You are also not a center of the forum. You are only an intruder who has no credibility. I'm sorry, but you are fake.

GFS coming in a little suppressed at 18z but still a winner

That is wonderful! Gods creatures need a break

You will be OK. Please listen to me. Model cooking is hallucinogenic Nonsense.............................. I have You covered........................

The GFS is a huge impact to the possibility.

.55" rain last 24 hrs. Very close to the 7 model blend from last Thursday.

This is exactly what I have been complaining about for weeks now on the ensemble mean while others have been trying to defend them.