stormy

Southern Arkansas to Norfolk on the deterministic is reminiscent of tracks from January 1966. Other pieces of this puzzle not fitting together. AI and EPS don't like northern Va.. I was hoping to be able to feature in my Monday Newsletter Edition but I'm losing confidence.

And the latest Canadian ensemble maintains the same drought region for the next 10 days:

For you, it is a difficult question................ For others, it is a simple conclusion

To answer your question............... NO................ Snow results from precipitation when the 5000 ft. temperature is below 32 F.

JI - I have respect for your opinion........... I will do an in depth comparison of these variations and let you know.

24 hours ago the NWS POP for Augusta on Monday was 60%. This afternoon it has plunged to 20%....................... The Drought controls..................................................

Your wisdom is impressive. A lot of bullish hype in here this afternoon but I believe most don't understand or admit how difficult serious Drought is to overcome. That southern jet needs to be on steroids..............................

I have been comparing operational to ensembles for a long time. The ensembles have often been too bullish on precip. for Augusta that never materialized. Too many opinions. AI may be the trend for the future, but again, the AI ensemble snow prediction was nuts not long ago.

We can only hope

One last shot: Dry first 10 days of January vs. CPC Wet

This is the map that I was using:

The CPC now says trending WET January 1 - 9. The Euro and GFS says trending DRY Jan. 1 - 9. Who would You put your money on? The CPC has been wrong for so long, they gotta be right some time. OK CPC, I believe.

Euro AI keeps the 6/7 system down in N.C..

The Severe Drought now extends from Rockingham through D.C. When will it end?? El Nino coming on in 2026 gives hope.

There is no such thing as a consistent top performer. Most would consider the ECMWF and GFS as leading the pack, but neither one is a consistent winner.