stormy

The AI models have shifted north since yesterday afternoon . For Augusta, 3 pm Wednesday was .30". At 6 am today is .88". As a result, the WPC has shifted from .35" to 1.00" Its easy to see that the WPC is biased toward AI.

The Graf predicts nearly an inch of rain over the weekend.

The 18z NAM shifts north with rainfall.

The WPC is tossing the physics models and buying ECM AI and GFS AI. This will be very interesting!!

37 degrees at 7 am. .56" total rain last 5 days.

I've struggled up to .07" total for the event.

The Drought Continues unabated......................................... 14 sprinkles overnight.

Congratulations Winchester!!!!!! I'm still DRY.

My Augusta 5 model blend for today thru Thursday has increased from 1.49 yesterday to 1.81" this morning. The latest GFS at only 1.00" believes development is too far off shore. Subsidence may be a stretch but it amounts to the same thing.

The 5 model blend for Augusta County has increased from 1.65" yesterday to 1.72" this morning.

The 5 model blend for Augusta from Monday - Wednesday has dropped from 2.11" to 1.65" since yesterday.

A 5 model blend now puts my rainfall at 2.11" for Monday - Wednesday. Just what the doctor orders. Hopefully, this will be the beginning of 6 months worth of moderate to heavy rainfall. Augusta has a 10 - 12" deficit to recover since August 2025.

.70" 2 - 4............. I am starting to believe that the strong El Nino is beginning to affect atmospherics.

This looks nice:

Many normal live streams in the Valley are dry.