stormy

Just talked to a friend who lives at 2700 ft near Big Meadows. She said she never received a flake of snow but a couple inches of sleet.

RUN to run consistency is important, regardless of which model is being looked at.

On Jan. 30, 1966, the center of the storm was near New Bern, N.C. during late afternoon when I received 3 inches of snow in 1 hour with a surface temperature of +5. I will look forward to future runs but the 00z surface reflection looks too far offshore for heavy snow over Virginia. This 500 mb position would be interesting!

Finished blowing sleet about 15 minutes ago. It was too heavy for the plow. Approaching 6 inches, 3 inches snow. 2.8" sleet. HRRR predicting .50" zr from 2 - 7. Still 10 degrees.

I was outside from 5 - 6 plowing 4 inches of snow mixed with sleet to get ahead of the sleet bomb. Regarding this event. A picture is worth a thousand words

Snow has started at my place in Augusta. 14 degrees.

The EURO continues to harp heavy ZR amounts. For Augusta .86". This is not going to happen. IMO, the 925 temp profiles are too cold. Most of that Euro predicted zr will be sleet.

My 8 model blend has dropped from 9.0" to 7.2" since 7 am.

That is certainly possible but it lost .40" qp over Augusta which is just more of a trend and probably not related to any banding.

I lost 1.8" on the EURO from 06 - 12z

We will probably have virga for a few hrs before we see it. Snowshoe will be different.

Thanks! I appreciate the 11:39 correction. My bad!!! I hope this is right but it disagrees with half of the models. Especially the vaunted Euro.

You're right on man!!

This is outdated by at least 8 hours.

I agree with you 100%. My reasoning is that 925 thermals are too cold until most precip. exits.