Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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Ugly run of the GFS warm and rainy through mid month-no cold air supply with the lousy pac. Edit-CMC is better but it's the CMC-need to see if the Euro agrees with it. -
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Yeah it was rough-great pattern but nothing until BDB. There was an OTS storm 12/17 as well. Was brutally cold too-month was -4.7
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I'm on board for late Dec/Early Jan-works for me-better climo. Models are always too quick to bring in a pattern change and too quick to break it down-so add 10-15 days onto the change on either end and you'll be good.
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Love your optimism but you do the same thing every year....you've been at this hobby long enough to know it's not going as planned...
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No one is using the GFS. If you look at the EPS it pushes the pattern out in time. And the PAC does matter especially in mid December. Right now the NAO will just trap a marginal airmass which for the coast is 40 and rain. Go back and read the last 2 pages here please...
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Hopefully it's not one of those "it's always 10 days away patterns"
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Yeah but as bluewave notes above we keep slowly pushing back. Need PAC help or we're just trapping pac polar air right now....
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Yep got down to 21 here-everything coated in frost...
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I'll take it-think it's 12/20 and beyond for anything cold/snowy for the immediate coast. Got to get fresh arctic air this time of year... Inland different story.
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I deleted it. Both have lousy pac airmasses unfortunately.
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yeah it will be awhile before we get good cold air mass in....
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Stormy wet pattern continues. Summer drought has been completely wiped out.
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That 35 in Fairfield is bogus. We had about 25-30 here. Hard to tell with all the drifting.
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Dec 2010. Dec 2017 was cold the last week into Jan with the blizzard ending that cold spell.
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Certainly possible. Pattern changes were forecast in years like 01-02, 05-06, 11-12, 19-20 that never came and were always 10 days out. Twitter and Facebook posts have made it all the worse with hype and clickbait. Keep expectations low for now, it's still early winter so lots of time for the goods to be delivered.
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Pattern change keeps moving out in time which isn't surprising, models always rush pattern change. Even so, might get back to 0 or average for temps depending on when it actually changes or how cold the air ends up.
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first half of the month will be +2 to +3 that will be hard to erase.
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taking the under due to climo but I like blocking in Dec-bodes well for add'l blocking later in the season.
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Social media has made this hobby brutal. All sort of garbage out there that you have to sift through. Always look at "what could go wrong" It will temper expectations.
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JB posted about 3 Decembers that were a "warm -NAO" Dec 1996, Dec 1970 and another maybe in the 60's. This could be one of them but let's hope not. The warm water off the coast is another element that makes analogs somewhat less worthy....
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People hear what they want to hear. The pattern was still in the day 10-15 range which is way out there and subject to drastic changes....
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December 2010 had a temp departure of almost -5. I didn't realize it was that cold but as Bluewave noted we did not have the warm pool of water off the east coast back then. That certainly changes the equation....
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Not sure why some are giving play by play on OP runs at day 8 10 and beyond (not just here but elsewhere)
