Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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Won't matter all that much-the bulk of met winter has been a bust. Hopefully we can salvage something first couple weeks of Feb....
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We have about 10-15 days. If a decent pattern doesn't show up by then, it's probably not going to. Basing this on other ratter winters like 01-02, 11-12 where the crappy pattern just continued on and on. At least we had great springs those years.
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It's been mostly rough sledding since the epic March 2018 pattern. Feb 2021 had 3-4 good weeks outside of that it's been some good storms but no longer lasting pattern
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These "non winters" have the same themes-the pattern is always 10 days+ away. We see that on today's runs...
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Nina Climo is typically warm for Feb around here...
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Even worse here-Late Jan 2022 with the system that crushed LI and coastal Jersey-we had 7 inches here. We had snow Superbowl Sunday but roads were wet.
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We're down to hoping for a fluky storm like some of our worst winters had.....this one is DOA-last night's Euro EPS going to what the GFS has was the final nail...
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Too far west to do us any good-that's a cutter pattern...
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If the pattern doesn't flip by end of January it usually doesn't. Exceptions of course like 06-07 but for the most part winter is a dud if it's warm and snowless through Dec/Jan
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that winter had alot of dustings/coatings here-we nickeled and dimed our way to 20 inches locally, this winter has none of that. Just warm and rain
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Can it be over if it never started?
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Sad. It will be ice with some loose granular at best
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Got to take off the snow goggles-3 of the last 4 years have not been great.
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This. It's been mostly LR fantasy this year...
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I'm in the over camp as well. Sure we'll get a window end of month/early Feb but I'd bet is underwhelming and likely a cutter track due to persistence of the pattern
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The Jan thread over there is a comical trainwreck...reality is setting in, it's not happening. MJO skipped right over 8 and 1....so we have a small window...maybe
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FIXED
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plan on historic cold/snow then
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FWIW JB went low on snow-predicted less than 15 inches for NYC. Barring a miracle that looks like a good call....
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good pattern for cold or snow? I don't think the snow part is written in stone-could be cold/cutter/cold/cutter pattern
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No one posted but the NAM is closer with Sunday's snows....that same WAR is pushing this a bit west
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Nothing like wasting the coldest climo on well above normal temps and rainstorm after rainstorm
