Krs4Lfe

Absolutely abysmal for any winter weather prospects. Only storminess will be heading to west coast because of the -PNA. I don’t think we should discount a January 2023 scenario. Cold and snow across conus for most of December 2022, and then late in the month we flipped to a torch and the east stayed like that for rest of winter. The west got record snowfall because of a deep -PNA

Literal blowtorch for nearly the entire CONUS for rest of forseeable future. Absolute abysmal prospects for any cold or snow anywhere in country for next few weeks. Doesn’t show any signs of reversal either. Don’t buy BAM’s hype

Really looks like the -NAO wants to develop. But ideally we would want it to develop a bit more to the west and force some blocking across northern Canada and Greenland. But I believe east -NAO are good flow slowing storms down on the Atlantic side. That being said, you need help from the pacific as well but as long as Alaska stays cold and stormy, I’m not sure we’ll get much help. Looks like northeast will be the only place colder than average for the rest of the month. Been a torch across most of CONUS this entire week and will likely prevail into the new year. Places down south that we’re running 10 degrees below normal will finish around average from this torch. Warm Christmas for many, doesn’t look like that pattern will Let up through early January.

It is a permanent issue. With a record warm west pacific year after year, that supercharges the pacific jet and/or southern stream and nothing is ever able to phase properly. Back in the 2010s, there would be bowling balls traversing CONUS and anywhere east of the Rockies would do well. Aside from 2021, that has been absent for most of the country. 2020, 2023, and 2024 were very good out west thouhh, with 2023 and 2024 having record snows for Rockies through upper Midwest and Great Lakes (even 2020 and 2019 to some extent.) But the northeast has been the loser time and again, and that’ll continue for as long as the west pacific remains very warm. Climate change will only exacerbate this. Welcome to the new normal.

-NAO are definitely more helpful than harmful. But we will need cooperation from the pacific. With all the energy roaring ashore the Pacific Northwest this week, it’ll be hard to get the pacific to slow down enough. And mind you, that’s only if the -NAO doesn’t link up with the SER. If it does, then it doesn’t matter how much pacific Help you get, it’ll be cutter city

Looks like winter 2023 to me. Troughs knocking into west coast, keeping them cold and stormy while the east US roasts

And unfortunately, those strong La Niña are often a coin toss between whether there is above average snowfall in New York City or well below average snowfall in New York City. Looks like the active weather pattern will continue across for northern US and put the south and the central US states will remain warm and dry. Usually it does not bode well for the mid Atlantic when there’s only an active northern stream and the southern stream is relatively muted. That doesn’t prevent coastal storms or the big bowling ball storms and most of us need to produce meaningful snow. For New England an active northern stream is conducive for snowfall, but for most of us absolutely is not. The long range models show no signs of this pattern, letting up. There will likely be no chances for snowfall for most of us in the foreseeable future going out through at least early to mid January.

Ski resorts will get a big one in the northwest. Blizzard warnings posted for the cascades which isn’t typical over there, even in the winter. Looks like a North Dakota and north Minnesota blizzard as well. Lots of high winds with this Incoming storm, entire intermountain west will see 60+, with mountain ranges seeing up to 90. Could be quite the power outage event over there over next 24-36 hours. Northwest coast has been pounded with rain past week and it’ll only be heavier this week as well.

December 2022 cold and January-March 2023 torch incoming ? Don’t laugh at that idea too much. La ninas usually put their eggs in the basket early. If that basket isn’t full early on, it likely never becomes full

At some point, the storminess along west US and west Canada would force that ridge to roll over. In the northeast, we will have mainly seasonal temps for rest of the month, but the torch over central US is very impressive. Reminiscent of Dec 2023 and Dec 2021. Just mild and warm for much of the nation. Both of the following januarys got pretty active after those months, but nothing really crazy over here in terms of snow and cold

Yeah that's the benchmark to watch. If we see a deeply negative PNA, then rest of winter would probably be similar to winter 2023 and 2024. Big time snow and cold in the west, and warm and mild over here

Once the block hooks up with the southeast Ridge, like it’s been doing more often than not over the past few years that will keep most of the east US warm. The southeast Ridge is almost always under modeled so I’m not sure it’s a good look.

The scary thing to see is that for the foreseeable future, including into early January, most of the cold is bottled up in Canada and New England. While cold air can be brought down by a storm, CONUS will be literally almost entirely void of snow and cold through early January. This prime time for building snowpack up north and west which can held cool down some temperatures. At some point that ridge will have to roll over and we'll take that warmth on the chin. It would be preferable to have some storminess and cold to ring in the New Year

That has been my fear for most of this month. Fortunately, unlike December 2022 all of us actually saw snow this month and some of us saw significant snow. And this month has actually been much colder overall. However, I remember all the great model prognostications about what will be waiting for us in January only for January to come, and the rest of winter was a torch with only a few inches of snowfall. We should not discount the ability for nature to switch up a good pattern on a dime. What looks to be a very cold month this month could easily be the opposite next month.

That west coast trough crashing in after Christmas will lead to that massive and near record warm ridge over central US to eventually move towards east coast. Hopefully it’s transient, but Central and south US will really torch Christmas week

Yeah once that trough knocks into west coast, that ridge will roll over into the east coast. Looks like that would be closer to new years. Christmas could be record warm over parts of the plains. Yuck. Hopefully there’s a limit to the west coast troughs because those will keep knocking the ridge over and we can’t get a coastal storm with a pattern like that.

Well realistically speaking what are the odds that December is as cold as it is and January/February don’t torch. It’s hard to get a few colder than average months in a row these days

Looks like mild and dry throuhh end of the year. Large ridge over most of CONUS too. Doesn’t look like snow for anyone through end of the month

Oh ok so the amount they released yesterday after the storm was 2.9” but it appears there might have been a 4.4” measurement ?

Side note I don’t think the weather channel keeps up with all the winter storm naming anymore. Their long standing criteria is to name a winter storm if there are 2 million people under winter storm warnings. They did that a few times earlier this month but there’s been a few more since then and they didn’t name it. There were a few times last year that they did this too because I noticed that I there were winter storm warnings over a large population a few times without a winter storm name. They were very consistent between late 2012 (when they started) and throuhh 2024 but they seem to only name some of them since last year. This past one had winter storm warnings from Illinois through Philly/NJ for like 10 million people but no name. Most of the time the names are pretty stupid but I do think it’s a plus when you have a large storm, easier to track it that way imo.

I believe 4” is the proper mark for December La Niña . We still have another half of the month to go but either way doesn’t look like there’s anything on the horizon

Yep, same here in Bayside. Reached just about 6" on the dot around 11:40. Has compacted about 1 inch or so since then. Lots of 4-6" reports throughout the boroughs except a few pockets like CPK, LGA. But is is NYC's official measuring site so for all intents and purposes, when people look back on this storm in the future, they'll think we all only got 2-3" lol

Yeah this is the best event for most of us since Jan 2022, although many also saw similar totals with the 2/13/24 storm (I believe that was the date) that was a widespread 5-8" for most but similar to this storm, was a 3-5" for the boroughs because of UHI

I figured JFK would come in with a total of over 4". Most of the boroughs has anywhere from 4-6", with 3-4" more common only in Manhattan. Aside from LGA and CPK's notorious undermeasurement, this was a pretty good forecast for most of the area. In fact, most places overperformed just to our north, east, south, and west. Pretty much an overperformer for everyone except the boroughs because of UHI.

Most of the boroughs have 4-6", just CPK will probably have 3" so maybe this statistic can still be used as a benchmark for the rest of the season?