09-10 analogy

Well whatever we're gonna get we're gonna get in the next few minutes. 

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

That cell is headed right towards DC…

Yeah but we had mini-me come through to let the air out. Of course it's awfully dark to our west so maybe we'll still see some action. 

Actually that little cell fell apart like a Dollar General t-shirt in the heavy duty wash cycle. Maybe the big line will give us some excitement after all. 

21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Something popping up ahead of the line near Fair Oaks. Will be interesting to see if it can take off.

Ehh, it'll prolly just ruin the main segment for the immediate DC metro. 

ETA: Anyhoo, it got dark here suddenly with some dollops of rain and low thunder. Actually now a downpour, but nothing else. Atmospheric premature ejac .... oh, this is a family website, so I'll stop there. But I think that's what may be happening DC immediate. 

ETA: I'm sure once this passes DC it'll put down wedges all the way to the Patapsco River.

It's kind of depressing to read LWX: "this only happens a couple of times a decade." If we can't get decent widespread moderate/significant snow events around here anymore, it'd be nice if we could replace that with one or two robust QLCSs per year, like today. 

Looks like the peak of that bow may flush hit IAD. Interesting to see what their report will be. 

19 minutes ago, yoda said:

Trained spotter reported funnel cloud over the city of Waynesboro

Yeah it's now SVR TS warned and looks to pass just to the north of Charlottesville. 

ETA: sorry, you just posted essentially the same thing. 

I have to admit, I haven't been this weenied out pre-event, I think, since 2016. Probably should dial it back a bit. 

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Some mid-level cloud cover coming in. What's really interesting is the different directions mid vs. low level clouds are moving... the former is moving westerly, and the latter southerly. That's shear.

Yeah I've been looking for that. I don't see any mid-level clouds right now, although I'm in the city and so visibility is limited. Admittedly, the low-level cumulus are moving pretty quickly to the N/NW. 

I remember 2002, the day of the LaPlata (E?)F4, seeing in Rock Creek Park low-level and mid-level clouds moving pretty quickly in different directions. This was a couple of hours before the LaPlata supercell took off. That memory (I was running there at the time) has stuck with me for some reason.

8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm making a play on the hook echo 

For some reason, this reminds me of a play-by-play at a golf tournament. 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
321 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
today as a strong cold front pushes through the region. High
pressure returns behind the front Tuesday into Wednesday with breezy
conditions. A warm frontal boundary approaches from the south
Thursday into Friday bring additional showers and
thunderstorms. Unsettled conditions linger into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Based on the thermodynamic and kinematic environments in place,
the setup is rather extreme for early August standards. While
instability is typically in place for many summer days, the
vertical shear is off the charts. The 18Z KIAD sounding being
launched is currently showing 40-50 knots of westerly flow in
the 700-500 mb layer. This is only continuing to increase the
deep layer shear across the area. While cells remain in discrete
in nature, all severe hazards are possible through the afternoon
hours. Most mid-afternoon convection has been exhibiting
supercellular characteristics with bounded weak echo regions
(BWER) and developing hook echoes. At this juncture, only a
couple rotating wall clouds have been observed. However, given
the environment is ripe for rotating thunderstorms, a Tornado
Watch is in effect until 9 PM this evening across the entire
area.

The regional radar imagery shows an expansive cluster of
multicells and line segments pushing through West Virginia.
Based on the latest radar, satellite, and high-resolution model
trends, this upstream activity should evolve into a quasi-linear
convective system (QLCS). The downdraft CAPE is very impressive
from the Shenandoah Valley eastward with values of around 1,000
to 1,200 J/kg per the 18Z RAP objective analysis. This
congealing of the convective complex is where the damaging to
locally destructive wind threat emerges late this afternoon into
the evening hours. Given an increasing low-level jet around
dark, the increasing 0-1 km shear will enhance the threat for
spin ups along the QLCS. A bulk of the Mid-Atlantic region
continues to be in a Moderate risk for severe thunderstorms.
Locally, this is something which is only seen a couple times a
decade.

Given the degree of hazardous weather affecting the region,
ensure you have multiple ways to obtain NWS warnings. In case
severe weather impacts you, find shelter and utilize the most
interior space inside the structure. As always lightning is
always a hazard in any thunderstorm. Wait at least 30 minutes
until the last sound of thunder before returning outside.

The convective threat will push through the DC and Baltimore
metros during the evening rush hour before exiting into the
Chesapeake Bay by the late evening. Besides the threat for
hazardous weather, conditions are hot and humid with high
temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Combine
these temperatures with dew points in the low/mid 70s yields
heat index values of 97 to 101 degrees.

"the vertical shear is off the charts." That's the summertime equivalent of "robust frontogenesis will lead to rates of 2-3"/hour." 

23 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Wow...looks almost similar to this (IAD sounding just before the derecho hit in 2012)...

Is that hodo the "wavy" kind that was mentioned in an SPC/LWX AFD (I forget which office) a day or so ago? 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The downside to this event is that we need the higher end potential to be realized. It's been hyped so much now that for this to bust would erode public trust. 

How much of that hype do you think can be attributed to last week's storms?

59 minutes ago, mappy said:

It absolutely is. I was anxious about just having to travel later in it, having a safe place at the studio should we need to shelter, and all that. Just too many moving parts when people are coming from multiple areas to the studio for classes. Not worth all that risk. 

Believe me, when I saw that tree that had pancaked a (fortunately, parked) car from last week's downburst in DC ... well, I've seen tons of pictures of that kind of thing, but to see it first-hand, it brings home how dangerous 70-80+ straight-line winds can be in areas with lots of big old elm and oak trees. Bit of a quandary, because I want to park under a big-canopy tree to protect my car somewhat from hail, but that same tree might demolish my car. (No garage at my house, most people on my street have one at the back of their property, but I'm right next to a corner lot and the way our neighborhood is laid out, corner lots and those adjacent don't have garages that back onto alleys.) 

12 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Currently there is one new tornado warning in the mountain corridor of the WV/VA state line. One note on an amazing event in years past, in the 1974 super outbreak I believe there was an F-3 tornado climbed up and down one or more mountain ridges in West Virginia. So there's that.

Then there's 1944, when a couple of F4 tornadoes hopped over ridges, evidently, like I'd hop into a pool. 

Who’s up for a wind-driven PDS watch today?

I always like second rounds.

Somewhat lost in the excitement, maybe, but we haven’t had too many days this summer with HIs over 100, as mentioned in the AFD.

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Next 1 to 3 hours will be key. I don't want to see us get stuck with pre-frontal convection that kills instability off or persistent low clouds. 

That always seems to be a threat. Still high clouds here; I’m beginning to temper expectations for my back yard. Still think it’ll be a big day for MA overall

Last weekend’s two wind events aside, it’s been a pretty boring stretch of weather around here; we’ve earned some excitement.

This is a mt. fort Reno day for sure. May need to take a folding chair there.

Now let's put the beatdown on Houston and make a statement to the rest of the AL: "We're your daddy now." 

We're missing Mr. Kate Upton this series, evidently. But that's OK. We pushed him around in 2014 and he's 9 years older now.

It's been a long time since I could feel cocky about being an Orioles fan. Should probably stop, though. Bad karma. 

That said, 30-20 the rest of the way gets us to 100 winds. That's a .600 winning percentage. Last time the O's won 100? (Trivia, see answer below.) They've played .622 so far. There's a lot of mediocrity in their schedule to come: Cardinals, Diamondbacks (who were good earlier), Cleveland. Some clunkers like the White Sox and A's; I hope the O's don't "play down" to their level. Four with TB in mid-September are going to be tough games and I think may decide the division title and home field advantage in the playoffs. Padres, Mariners, and (7) Boston could be tough as well. 

Trivia answer: 1980. 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

According to the IEMbot archives, only 6/13/2013 was the other time that a portion of Maryland was under a 45% Day 2 wind contour.

I've been wanting to find a resource that could tell me "when was the last time XXX had a ZZZ," so thanks! Now I just have to figure out how to negotiate my way through all that data. I knew the IEM page has archived AFDs and many other NWS products, but I didn't know it could drill down even deeper. 

I think they expanded the 5% TOR risk, and expanded the wind risks eastward as well.

If I'm reading Sterling's discussion correctly, if the storms hold off until later Monday afternoon/evening, the LLJ would give a boost to mesocyclone development. Is this akin to what I often read in discussions of Dixie tornado threats, which often mention a nighttime tornado threat being heightened by a nocturnal LLJ?  And, no, I'm not comparing tomorrow to Dixie outbreaks.

There is, however, this August event:

https://michigan-weather-center.org/the-tornado-and-the-burning-of-washington-august-25-1814#:~:text=The tornado tore through the,of homes and scattered about.

10 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

A few shots from the Johnston Canyon hike today. Best part of the day was heading to a brewery in Banff after the hike and having the O’s game on! Go O’s!!!

Sitting by the fire now sipping a whiskey and listening to rolling distant thunder. Great day.

 

That's beautiful. Always wanted to hike in the Canadian Rockies.