09-10 analogy
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Posts posted by 09-10 analogy
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Thunder and darkening skies to the west from those cells erupting in N Arlington and across the river in MoCo. Question is, for my immediate, is whether there's anything to impart (or propagate) a little more easterly direction to these cells; if they do the SW-NE dance most of them have today, I think I'll just get grazed in upper NW.
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Purely from reading the discussions, it seems the progged shear today is a bit more than may have been anticipated earlier in the week? I'm sure there's a way to research that but I'm too lazy.
We certainly have the juice available ...
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After reading Terpeat’s wonderful, albeit depressing, post, all the more reason to up the investigation into retirement property around Ithaca, New York
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Maybe this dreadful heat this week will come with something of a payoff down the road. From the Sterling AFD:
Thursday and Friday should bring a gradual shift in the pattern. As noted in global ensembles, the culprit is a longwave trough pushing through the Great Lakes. A lot of details need to be resolved before more accurately portraying any convective threats. However, coming off a lengthy period of hot and humid weather often yields an unsettled pattern given notable forcing mechanisms. For now, will keep shower and thunderstorm chances to close out the work week. While conditions remain on the hot side, temperatures do fall by around 4 to 8 degrees compared to earlier in the week. && -
1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:
I’m mobile so I’m not sure I’m getting this right, but I’m seeing very few major hurricane landfalls in the Big Bend area, and really from Appalachicola to Tampa.
Then there's the Superstorm of 1993, which "came ashore" somewhere around there. Several people died in the associated storm surge, I guess you would call it.
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Gusty shower coming through, to cool things off. Pretty heavy rain and winds I'd say 35+.
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Yeah, today is one of the most uncomfortable days of this summer. Maybe it's because it's been so pleasant lately and my body is in autumn mode. Of course, recently autumns around here have brought whatever heat the summer left at the bus stop.
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Back from dropping my daughter off at uni, which is always kind of depressing. Some good storms to track and experience would help immensely with that.
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19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Hilary has the look. Might be a big time event in southern CA.
San Diego may finally get some interesting weather for the first time in decades.
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5 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:
Beautiful photos, @CAPE. Let me know where you end up living over there and I’ll visit!
The last leg of our trip was in Glacier and though I’ve been there before, it doesn’t disappoint. Such a stunning park.
I'm going there as soon as possible. Your photos have convinced me!
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On 8/13/2023 at 11:17 AM, 09-10 analogy said:
We're really lucking out on Wednesday night, when the three of us are going to see Springsteen in Philly as kind a send-away to our daughter (and as a birthday present to me) before she goes back to uni week after next. Never been to a big concert with her. Hope she likes it; she wants to go and I'm not the Bruce fan I was when I was younger. Mostly clear temps falling through the 70s. Thank goodness we're (and he and his band, all of whom are ... seasoned performers, shall we say) not dealing with heat advisories and EHWs like they are in the NW and SE.
Our luck ran out. Just as we were going out the door of the hotel, we read the concert was cancelled due to Springsteen having some kind of health issue. Rumor is he's got the newest Covid variant. They'll honor the tickets later when he gets better and can reschedule but whether our daughter will be able to make it, being back at uni ... who knows? So we're out the gas and tolls, and the hotel room, since we turned around and drove home last night. I would have stayed to luxuriate -- or what I consider to be luxuriating -- in the hotel, but I was outvoted by my wife and daughter, both of whom were adamant about coming home. What a day: the original hotel we'd booked -- a Hampton Inn near the airport -- was a smelly dump, so we changed hotels (at least we got the money back for the first one). Checked into the new, much nicer place, and then found out about the cancellation. Disappointed, but at least we didn't fly into Philly to see him like some couple from Europe we were talking to at a restaurant near Citizens Bank Park.
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21 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:
Glad you mentioned that...we had lost power by the time we went under a tornado warning yesterday, though I still received all alerts on our wx radio with battery backup. What I didn't expect was to get the cell phone based emergency alert for the tornado threat. Is that standard practice for tornado warnings? (That was only the second I've experienced in the 20+ years living in this neighborhood.)
I remember getting one on my phone when the small tornado went through N Arlington/Foggy Bottom a while back. It woke me up
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Best thing about today's storm is I got to hear the EAS beeps on WTOP as I was driving home.
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11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:
I don't think there were winds anything like that in upper NW but I was inside when the storm hit so didn't see the initial gust. But as (the lack of) a telltale sign, very little tree debris/leaves down -- much less branches -- on the way home thru my neighborhood. Torrential rain though.
That's at least the second time recently DCA has met/exceeded severe wind criteria. Pretty sure they did at least on 7.29; maybe some other date as well?
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We're really lucking out on Wednesday night, when the three of us are going to see Springsteen in Philly as kind a send-away to our daughter (and as a birthday present to me) before she goes back to uni week after next. Never been to a big concert with her. Hope she likes it; she wants to go and I'm not the Bruce fan I was when I was younger. Mostly clear temps falling through the 70s. Thank goodness we're (and he and his band, all of whom are ... seasoned performers, shall we say) not dealing with heat advisories and EHWs like they are in the NW and SE.
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So to recap (for LWX region):
July 28: Corridor of significant wind damage from Frederick to Baltimore County, with a secondary cluster around the northern and eastern suburbs of DC; scattered hail and wind damage reports in NVA. (82 reports total)
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/reports/?date=20230728&hoursBefore&all
July 29: Corridor of significant/major wind damage from NVA and southern MOCO through DC; scattered reports elsewhere (141 reports total; 749 nationwide)
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/reports/?&all&date=20230729
August 7: Corridor of major/extreme wind damage and hail reports along and south of Mason/Dixon line (tornado reports pending?); numerous wind (and some hail) reports in eastern WVA, northern VA, and central MD; scattered reports in DC (203 reports total; 1389 nationwide)
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/reports/?&all&date=20230807
(Links go to CONUS map; I drilled down to just Sterling CWA; I don't know how to make the link focus on just our area)
That about right?
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Thing is, the O's were becoming a national, feel-good story: a team that had been so bad was now so good, put together right, with a bunch of young, enthusiastic guys. Beating soundly all the big-payroll teams. And then this ass mini-Angelos comes along and kiboshes the PBP guy for merely stating fact. That's a horrible look: not only being a real jerk, but a dummy, since much of the goodwill being directed at the O's by the baseball-following public will dissolve as a result of this petty behavior.
Brittany Ghiroli, an excellent reporter who used to be on the O's beat before she went nationwide and who doubtlessly still has sources in the O's organization, went on a diatribe against Angelos jr. this morning, saying this is part of a pattern of ridiculous behavior for John Angelos and that it doesn't surprise her at all. She's never struck me as someone who says things just to stir up controversy; her reporting is usually measured and nuanced.
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5 minutes ago, Stormpc said:
Bad job Orioles organization. Little Angelos took exception to this statement by their great play by play guy Kevin Brown regarding the Ray's back on 7/23. Suspended indefinitely.
That... “The Orioles have won more games against them this season than the last two combined”.
Seriously? That thin skinned? Brown was only reporting truth. He's one of the best baseball voices already. He'll be fine elsewhere hopefully.
SMH. The only thing the O's need right now is new ownership.
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Second helping approaching. According to SPC mesoanalysis, still a good bit of shear overhead, but not surprisingly much less instability to work with.
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So far, perhaps surprisingly, no TOR reports on the EC from the SPC site:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
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1 minute ago, vastateofmind said:
I figured when my wife and I got caught in a bit of rain from that little popup cell about 20 min before the "main event," that we wouldn't get the full punch from the main event. Having said that, we're getting horizontal rain right now and some CG lightning...but nothing like what I was anticipating from the earlier forecasts.
Currently 70/69. And based on radar....do we get another, less severe round in about an hour?
SPC doesn't seem to be dropping the watches to the west, so why not go for round two?
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1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:
Damage for as far as the eye can see. Crash smashed.
Wow. Was there any radar rotation indicated with that cell as it went through, or is that all straight-line?
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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:
Radar and lightning shows the line weakened right around DC and then merged and strengthened just east of the city. Lightning strikes have increased sharply and purples showing up on radar
Yeah that had to be the little cell that popped 20 min or so before the main line. Because that little cell fell apart east of the District. I know weather is more complex than that, but it seems to fit with what occurred inside the Beltway and why this was just another storm here, as opposed to many other places, where it seemed to amply justify the Moderate Risk. But I was semi-blasted Saturday before last, so I don't feel particularly letdown.
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Nice little storm, with a decent amount of T&L and winds to maybe 35, but, as another poster noted, nothing like last weekend ... at least MBY. I could see the clouds booking but the winds aloft didn't seem to be transferring to the ground level. Or maybe not, I don't know. Maybe that little cell before the main line prevented it?
Crazy stuff up in Westminster though.
2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Outflowing thru the neighborhood now. Just like yesterday: big cells off to the N and W (actually they were close to MNOTW yesterday).
What field (if any) on the SPC Hourly Meso Analysis would be best to approximate the location of outflow boundaries? Or is that just eyeballing radar? (And I don't have GR3 or whatever it's called; I just rely on LWX or some other free sites. Now if I lived in Huntsville ...)