09-10 analogy

You win the internets.

My 16 year old beagle slept right through it. The other dog wasn't particularly impressed by it, either.

Was two distinct periods here. First one was relatively minor, then a pause for a few seconds, then stronger shaking (made my computer screen shake). Are those the p and s waves? Or vice versa?

[/quote

There was a distinct rumbling beforehand that only registered in my mind in retrospect of the actual -- and pronounced -- shaking afterwards. I might not have even noticed the first period if it hadn't been for the second; I might have just figured it was a truck going by or something. And there did seem to be a pause between the two.

Top that, Irene.

So I'm not crazy. It was about 10 second. I wondered WTF and by the time I thought it was an earthquake, it was over. Rattled the windows.

I've been thinking, it's pretty remarkable (and sad) how many tornado and death toll benchmarks have been set so far this year:

~ worst (# of tornadoes) outbreak in NC history, possibly of all time, but at least since 1884

~ worst tornado outbreak in AL history, definitely in terms of deaths, possibly also in terms of total tornadoes

~ possibly the most prolific tornado day in U.S. history (4/27/2011)

~ deadliest U.S. tornado outbreak since at least 1936 (if you consider the Tupelo and Gainesville tornadoes both parts of one outbreak), or possibly 1925

~ deadliest single U.S. tornado since either 1953 (if 116 death toll in Joplin holds), 1947, or 1936 (if you consider the Woodward event to have been more than a single tornado)

That's a lot to bear in just one year.

Most fatalities in one year since 1953, as well.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

520 PM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

1056 PM TORNADO CAMP CREEK 36.09N 82.77W

04/27/2011 GREENE TN EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 10 FATAL, 33 INJ *** EF2. NEAR CAMP CREEK WHICH

CAUSED SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SEVERAL

FATALITIES AND NUMEROUS INJURIES. MAX WIND SPEED 115 MPH.

It's not surprising that to rack up such a ghastly fatality count as yesterday, there has to be some very bad luck contributing along with violent, long-track, mile-wide tornadoes. How many EF2s cause double-digit deaths? Sure it's happened before but for every EF2 that causes multiple deaths, there must be hundreds (?) that don't even injure anyone. But wrong place at the right time, and all that ...

The SPC LSR's report 9 GA deaths (2 in Trenton, 7 in Ringwald) as well as 1 in VA from a probable Tornado

CNN just reported that the Gov. of Alabama has stated there are 128 fatalities in his state alone

There is no question this is the worst Tornado Outbreak since 1974. You have to remember that our warning capability for Tornadoes is much better than in 1974.

If that Alabama total is correct, that would be the greatest loss of life in a single state from an outbreak since Indiana in 1965. No state affected by the Superoutbreak had deaths in the triple digits.

AFD from early Friday morning (apologies if it's been posted already):

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

251 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY

WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW

WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST

TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL

BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM

SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --KUDOS TO THE MDLS WHICH HV BEEN PREDICTING A MAJOR MID ATLC STORM

FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 5 DAYS. ALSO KUDOS TO PRVS SHIFTS WHO DID

ALL THE HVY LIFTING W/ REGARD TO THE UPCOMING STORM...OUR ROLE TNGT

HAS BEEN MINOR TOUCH UPS.

WRNGS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND RMN UNCHGD. WE DID UP THE SNOW

TOTALS SLTLY AT HIGHER ELEVS... WHERE INXS OF 30" MAY OCCUR BTWN

FRI MRNG AND LATE SAT. OTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION WAS WHETHER

TO UP THE COUNTIES AGAINST THE BAY TO BLZRD WRNG. AFTER CONFERENCE W/

PHL...WHO ALTHO ISSUED FOR DE (ON THE CST) BUT NOT FOR THEIR MD

COUNTIES E OF THE BAY...WE`VE DECIDED TO HOLD. "NR BLZRD" WRDG WL

RMN IN THE WRNG. THESE CONDS WOULDN`T HAPPEN B4 TNGT

REGARDLESS...WHICH WL GIVE DAYSHIFT TIME TO EVALUATE FURTHER.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --TNGT..WHEN CSTL LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY E OF ORF...CONDITIONS WL

DETERIORATE TO XTRMLY POOR. TRAVEL SHOULD BE DISCOURAGED IN ALL

BUT THE MOST XTRM CASES. W/ STRONG UVV`S OVRNGT SNOWFALL RATES OF

1-2" PER HR WL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA. LOW TEMPS M20S HIGHLANDS

TO A30 ON THE CST.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --STRONG SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE

OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM

WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION. AS THE

LOW PRESSURE DOES DEPART OUT TO SEA...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW

WILL BRING COLDER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS

MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING

AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE

WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE

DIGITS AND TEENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE

WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --CGIS/VSBYS WL BEGIN THE MRNG AOA VFR LVLS AT MAJOR AIRPORTS...

DIMINISHING TO MVFR THIS MRNG AS LGT SNOW DVLPS...THEN IFR BY LATE

AFTN...AND FINALLY VLIFR THRUT TNGT.

IFR/SUBIFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SNOW AND BLOWING

SNOW. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL

APPROACH THE TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE

SNOWFALL ALONG WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS

WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER

STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...

-- Changed Discussion --LGT WINDS THIS MRNG...INCRSG TO SCA VALUES IN THE LOWER BAY/PTMC

THIS AFTN. AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES E OF ORF TNGT TO GALE ON THE

ENTIRE BAY AND LOWER PTMC TNGT...AND STRONG SCA ON THE UPPER PTMC.

HVY SNOWFALL/BLSN WL REDUCE VSBY TO 1/4 MILE. ALL CRAFT SHOULD

STAY IN PORT AFTR LATE AFTN TDA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA SATURDAY...BUT THE PRESSURE

GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THIS LOW AND APPROACHING SURFACE

HIGH FROM THE MIDWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR

THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE

LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY

AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT SCA WIND GUSTS ARE STILL

LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL

POTOMAC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER

STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY IMPACTS THE WATERS TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

-- Changed Discussion --AT THE MOMENT TIDES ARE AT OR STLY ABV NRML..BUT NOTHING ALARMING.

W/ STRONG NE FLOW XPCTD TO DVLP LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT THIS WL

PREVENT WATER FM DRAINING AND CAUSE MINOR CSTL FLDG TNGT. LATER

SHIFTS WL MONITOR.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

-- Changed Discussion --DC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST

SATURDAY FOR DCZ001.

MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST

SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST

SATURDAY FOR VAZ028-031-042-052>057-501-502.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST

SATURDAY FOR VAZ021-025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051.

WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST

SATURDAY FOR WVZ050>053-503-504.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST

SATURDAY FOR WVZ054-055-501-502.

MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR

ANZ530>534-537>543.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS

EVENING FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST

SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BJL/RDH

AFD from Thursday afternoon (don't think it's been posted)

000

FXUS61 KLWX 042006

AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

306 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG WINTER

STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH

PRESSURE MAY RETURN BY MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE

REGION TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --DENSE OVERHEAD CIRRUS IS A SIGN OF THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM AND PRECURSOR TO WINTRY END TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE MID-

ATLANTIC. TEMPS THIS AFTN HAVE RISEN INTO THE U30S AND L40S...

ALLOWING FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT DROPPED VERY MUCH AND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MODIFY TEMPS OVERNIGHT A

BIT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE M-U20S BUT ALSO KEEPING SFC TEMPS STEADY

INTO THE MORNING HRS JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --MID-LVL CONFLUENCE ACRS NEW ENGLAND SHUD SUSTAIN LOW-LVL HIPRES

AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR MID-ATLC RGN. COMPACT BUT

STRONG SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS MS RVR VLY FRI...WITH DEEP MSTR

SPREADING NEWD ON SWLY FLOW.

SFC LOPRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS AL AND

GA BFR EMERGING INTO THE ATLC NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. COASTAL

LOPRES XPCD TO BOMB FRI NGT OVER COASTAL NC BFR DVLPG NNEWD TWD

HAMPTON ROADS AREA OF VA.

RESULT OF THIS MVMT WILL BE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND

ENSUING STRONG NELY WINDS. HIGHEST WINDS XPCD FRI NGT THRU SAT

WITH GUSTS APRCHG 30KT IN COASTAL ZONES.

CONCERNING PCPN...SNOW XPCD TO FORM ACRS CNTRL FOOTHILLS...CNTRL

SHENANDOAH VLY AND SRN PORTIONS OF POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY DAWN FRI.

SNOW WILL SPREAD NEWD ACRS RMNDR OF FCST AREA THRU FRI MRNG. EARLY

ONSET OF PCPN WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND MAXIMA FRI SHUD BE IN UPR

20S AND LWR 30S MOST AREAS.

AS UPR WAVE AND COASTAL SYSTEM APRCH...PCPN WILL BCM MDT TO HEAVY

BY LATE AFTN. SNOW TOTALS BY LATE FRI AFTN ARE XPCD TO BE IN 4-6

INCH RNG IN DC METRO AREA...UP TO ONE FOOT IN CNTRL SHENANDOAH VLY

AND CNTRL FOOTHILLS.

HEAVY SNOW XPCD AREAWIDE FRI NGT AS UPR SYSTEM MOVES ACRS. SFC LOW

MOVES NEWD ON SAT...AND SNOW BANDS XPCD TO DVLP ACRS DC/BALTIMORE

METRO AREAS IN DEFORMATION ZONE. ADDITIONAL MDT/HEAVY SNOW PSBL

SAT MRNG BFR ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND SNOW INTENSITY WANES.

WINTER STORM WRNG FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTS THRU SAT EVE. HAVE ADJUSTED

SNOW TOTALS SLGTLY FROM PREV ISSUANCE...BUT SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IS

SIMILAR TO PREV FCST. SOME VARIABILITY IN SNOW TOTALS FCST FOR SRN

MD AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF VA WOULD BE PSBL IF SLEET DVLPS LATE

FRI NGT AS WARM AIR BRIEFLY WRAPS INTO SYSTEM. ATTM HAVE RETAINED

PRIMARILY SNOW FCST /WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX INCLUDED IN GRIDS/...

BUT A PROLONGED PD OF SLEET COULD REDUCE TOTALS IN THIS AREA.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MAIN FOCUS OF EXTENDED PDS IS A STRONG CLOSED UPR LOW THAT MOVES

ACRS NRN CONUS TUE-WED AND DISLODGES ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR INTO OH

VLY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROMOTE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF

FCST AREA TUE...WITH UPSLP FLOW AND A SEQUENCE OF SHRTWV TROFS IN

WAKE OF CLIPPER SYSTEM XPCD TO SUSTAIN SHSN FOR WRN SLOPES IN VERY

COLD AIR.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. A RAPID CHANGE IN

CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST FRI MRNG. AREAS IN N-CNTRL VA

SUCH AS KCHO WILL SEE LIGHT-MOD SNOW MOVE IN CLOSER TO SUNRISE...

AND ONLY A COUPLE OF HRS LATER IN THE DC AND BALT METRO AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTN...AS HEAVIER

SNOW BANDS AND A HEAVY...WET SNOW DROP CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE

REGION.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU SAT EVE AS LOPRES MOVES

NEWD AND DEFORMATION ZONE DVLPS. PCPN ENDS QUICKLY SAT EVE...WITH

IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS THRU MON.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...

-- Changed Discussion --WINDS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTN...SUB-SCA

CRITERIA. A GRADUAL DECREASE WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING. SPEEDS

WILL STAY LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACRS WATERS BY LATE FRI AFTN AS LOPRES

DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF CAROLINA COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY THRESHOLD

WINDS XPCD FOR SRN PORTIONS OF CHSPK BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC FRI

AFTN. GALE WRNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MD CHSPK BAY AND LWR

TIDAL POTOMAC FRI NGT THRU SAT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADZY POSTED FOR

RMNDR OF WATERS DURG THIS TIME.

SMALL CRAFT ADZYS MAY BE NEEDED LATE NEXT WEEK AS A CDFNT WITH

ARCTIC ORIGINS MOVES THRU MID-ATLC.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

-- Changed Discussion --DC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY

FOR DCZ001.

MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY

FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY

FOR VAZ028-031-042-052>057-501-502.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY

FOR VAZ021-025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051.

WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY

FOR WVZ050>053-503-504.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY

FOR WVZ054-055-501-502.

MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR

ANZ531>534-537>543.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-

534-537-541>543.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR

ANZ530-535-536.-- End Changed Discussion --