09-10 analogy

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

You're closer to the forcing and multiple models carry some sort of cells or complex through your area. SEPA has a little mini tornado allery IIRC. 

I seem to remember seeing one tornado-incidence recurrence map that had a lollipop of enhanced frequency to the north of the Bay, taking in places like York and Lancaster, maybe extending south of the M/D line, but not as far as the DC metro (may have glanced the Baltimore metro to the north and east). But that map didn't have any similar lollipop over, say, La Plata, so take it for what it's worth. Maybe the map predated 2002. 

Outperformed for sure. Would love a round 2 even if it’s only GV.

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

DCA gusted to 68mph

Wow, I wasn’t anything close to that up here. Maybe 45-50 tops.

Great looking storm though nothing really noteworthy in upper NW. Some good wind and the obligatory 3-min cloudburst. As often the case some good stokes and booms even as the western sky is clearing.I thought I might have heard some hail as I was driving back from my vantage but it was pollen-size if it was and thus pretty much indistinguishable from raindrops. But the storm did have a great look— best I’ve seen in a while, I know that’s totally subjective but I,ve always been into weather for the aesthetics and the theater of it: great shelf cloud, a lot of green tint (maybe that’s why I had an audio-llucination of “hail”), some profound CG off to the distance. Looked particularly nasty as I looked due north from Ft Reno; no surprise as central MOCO seemed to have this one’s beam on it,

On 4/26/2019 at 3:34 PM, yoda said:

Quick question... see the bolded in this tornado warning update statement from LWX:

Didn’t mean to xpost

see a bit of green tinge to sky looking nw

37 minutes ago, high risk said:

Reviewing the morning CAMs, several of them show storms developing in northwest VA or eastern WV and then moving southeast towards the RIC area.    Not a whole lot of signal for the folks in central MD.   I agree with SPC, though, that there is sufficient deep layer shear to support some SVR in any storms that organize.  

Maybe they’ll lay down some kind of boundary?

Yea, I know, “lay down a boundary” is the weenie t-storm equivalent to “backbuilding.”

edit: oh, l see LWX mentioned a boundary in its AFD. But maybe this is a separate batch from the decaying MCS Sterling mentioned?

Not much T&L in upper NW but then again I was in a basement for part of it. Brief cloudbusts, some really optimized ominiscity (a new coinage that most assuredly will not catch on) above me, little bit of wind, but all in all, fringed.

My daughter goes to school up near Cabin John and said they got nailed today: barrage of t&l, torrential rains, some impressive winds. The same school that was in the parth of the tornado warned cell last week and made no effort to get the kids to safer places, getting them away from windows, etc. Some were in gymnasiums, walking around outside, I even think some outside athletic after-school practices were going on and not interrupted. OK, the cell didn't drop and wouldn't have been a monster if it did, but still ... I'm tempted to say something, but my daughter says it would embarrass her, so maybe I'll email someone in confidence. 

OK, so that lowering I saw from Fort Reno did have something to it. 

Just seeing those pics, imaging a tornado of some strength rolling along the Beltway in the vicinity of the Legion bridge during rush hour ... what a mess that would be. 

I was up on ft Reno looking at the tor warned cell. Thought there was something of a wall cloud and I like to think I saw some tube like lowering but was probably just scud. Did not see any rotation but from my vantage that may not have been noticeable. Pretty ominous looking cloud regardless

Not lamenting that the torrential rain didn’t show up

Went up to ft Reno and looked over toward Bethesda. Definitely a shelf (?) cloud over Bethesda but no rotation as far as I could see. It’s a bit away and of course dark. Some low clouds scooting NE. If I put my imagination glasses on Ithought I might have seen a slight protuberance hanging down from the cloud but in all likelihood that was just interplay of city lights and low cloud or just an outright mirage.  Nothing to sound hells bells about that’s for sure. But this was the closest tornado warning to upper NW for a (long?) while so figured it was worth a gander

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

i'm generalizing, but i always feel like our best severe events are preceded by sunshine, light winds...basically the calm before the storm.  i don't know why that is, but it seems to hold true for a lot of potential setups.  i don't like seeing clouds or breezy conditions before what's supposed to be severe storm chances.  not saying we can't do severe without typical summer day conditions, but we really need things to destabilize and/or have a nice vort pass to get anything interesting here it seems.

IIRC, the day of the college park F3 (and an “F4” in Virginia; I’ve never been convinced of that rating), it was pretty overcast most of the day. But I think the lee trough associated with that day really helped to ramp things up. Plus September 2001 was a pretty dystopian month around here anyway. 

Anyway, distant thunder and some rain in upper NW

Discrete cells overnight in April ... I dunno, that seems it would be rather ... anomalous for our region. 

Got quite windy but didn’t notice my friend TSTM making an appearance. Her accomplice TRW++ certainly had a long stay last year — maybe too long. A lot of people seemed to be getting sick of his schict and wanted more of a light and sound show; the open bar was just watered-down concoctions you could hardly call drinks, and so enraged the patrons they,d thrown them on the floor, making the carpet so sodden it had to be replaced in places. 

Still, hopefully TSTMS will get an extended stay this spring and summer, backed by a high-powered dBZ band. Her manager DSTBLZN has been known to show up too late in the day to get the deal signed, unfortunately. And RW++ wont chew up the scenery as much, we hope, this year.

Maybe even a special guest surprise visit from TVS but he usually doesn’t tour out our way. Sometimes TOR is on the marquee but she rarely shows up in person and when she does it’s usually either a total disaster or such a brief walk-on you’re apt to lose sight of it since the overall TSTMS show is so rocking at that point. Plus her managers CAPE and SRH, when they do consider our area a venue (which they rarely do), can’t seem to agree on the same time so that TOR can really put on the kind of a**kicking  +FC show that can be so dangerously majestic. Because once an +FC takes the stage, things get so rambunctious that some patrons leave the venue entirely and those that stay ... well they,re taking quite the risk. Which is why a successful booking of an +FC is so controversial. But for some people it’s the show of a lifetime, even better (if a bit riskier) than “Hamilton.”

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

If we can score one more event I’ll be thinking B+ or A-.

I'm down with a St. Paddy's or 1999 redux. That would do it.   

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

 

28 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I’ll go with a B- or a B after today. 

Yeah the expectations were high and that might distort my thinking but in all fairness this has been a pretty solid winter for DC so far. A MECS, a SECS/mixfest today, the mid-November teaser, the all-day light event a while back, a few other shoestrings. Reached single digits on at least one night. I must not have been paying much attention to the ice last (?) week since it wasn't much here, but that seems to have been a pretty big deal to the north and west in terms of tree damage. So a little bit of everything, except an out-of-season severe event. (I'm thinking Feb 25 from a couple of years ago.) 

Pretty much a snow globe out there now. At least intermittently. Around 1115 or so I heard a few pingers and thought the mix was underway. But the snow is back with some authority. Measured 3.4" at 1030 or so

EDIT: and almost as soon as I write this, I hear the ping-ping-ping from our warm-nose friend.

It's still snowing. Amazing. Light, but it's still falling. Long duration indeed. 

11" as the final tally. 

That'll do, pig. ("Babe" movie reference)

Baltimore folks will get theirs soon. After all, aren't all of BWI's (or Baltimore's) top 10 at or above 20"? (OK, number 10 is the second Feb 10 storm, at 19.5"). Can't say that about PHL or CPK, I don't think. 

I'd love to live there again. But job/family, etc ... 

10.75". Cleared that bar easily. Don't think I'll get to a foot though. But who knows? This storm just would not quit. Gorgeous out there tonight. 

DCA's total is astonishing. The government shutdown must have furloughed the usual monitors and Jessie Pinkman took over. Or Snookiecoma. 

9 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

Seems like there’s a lot of dry air in NOVA while Maryland is getting crushed. 9.3” and fringed in N Arlington. Congrats Moco on the 15”.

I haven't seen anything like a 15" report from Montgomery County or anywhere else for that matter. Is there a Montgomery County in Missouri?

9" in upper NW. I'm sure there's been some compaction, so more than that has probably fallen. Doesn't really matter; it's a dynamite storm. Just walked over to Whole Foods. Moderate to occasionally heavy snow there and back. DC and environs are rolling all 6's with this one. 

Seems to be picking back up. We're gonna close strong I think.