09-10 analogy

Main thread, as, lamentably, so often, being soured by pompous and ignorant dorks who cite their decades long experience at "tracking" as irrevocable proof that a slow moving Dorian will upwell enough water in its approach to Florida so that it will hit as at best a weak CAT 1. Never mind the best in the world in Miami, with the best tools available, now forecasting a CAT 4 landfall. But, you see, they don't have the snowflake special insight of grizzled veterans of "tracking" using NOAA weather radio and lat/long map plots back in 1979 when they were analyzing David with their state-of-the-art dart throwing. Put the blindfold on, pin the tail on Dorian, like they did with David. And Frederic. And etc.     

Not to knock David. It was a hell of a storm for the mid-Atlantic. One of my earliest weather memories, growing up in northern DE. 

57 minutes ago, yoda said:

Leesburg storm now warned for 70mph gusts

That storm has weakened but is it ever presenting here an ominous look to the W/NW. Plus CG strokes out in front, prolly in Great Falls area now. 

This would be the third one of the day, although the second one was not much. Still, a bit reminiscent of June 4, 2008; one of my favorite severe days ever. Today doesn't compare to that, but the multiple rounds after the big one that comes through in the mid/late afternoon does reflect the pattern. Back then of course we had five or six rounds, it seemed; it didn't calm down until after midnight, IIRC. 

Honestly that was about as impressive as anything I can remember since the derecho. Dime-sized hail, winds well into the 50s (times like this I wish I had an anemometer, even a cheap handheld one), lots of CG, torrential rain. Had it all. Another one incoming. While driving I saw a couple of streets cordoned off (I'm assuming downed trees) and lots of small branches and foliage littering the streets. I have power but a good bit of the Tenleytown area doesn't. Second significant hailer (well, for around here) this season. At least dime size won't dent up the car like the larger hail from June 2 did. 

Nice to be in the sweet spot for a change. My subjective take is that upper NW has been kinda fringed a lot this season. But we were evidently bullseyed today. 

28 minutes ago, yoda said:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
257 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Carroll County in north central Maryland...
  Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland...
  Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland...

* Until 345 PM EDT.

* At 256 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm with a history of producing
  wind damage was located 7 miles south of Ballenger Creek, or 8
  miles south of Harry Grove Stadium, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  This is a very dangerous storm.

  HAZARD...60 to 80 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your
           life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to
           some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to
           roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes.

* Locations impacted include...
  Frederick, Westminster, Damascus, Eldersburg, Mount Airy,
  Walkersville, Sykesville, Oakland, New Market, Gamber,
  Discovery-Spring Garden, Green Valley, Linganore-Bartonsville,
  Clarksburg, New Windsor, Libertytown, Monrovia, Barnesville,
  Henryton and Winfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms have a history of producing wind damage. Seek shelter
immediately in the center of the lowest level of a sturdy building
away from windows.

That’s some June 2012-ish rhetoric there

13 hours ago, 87storms said:

this lightning is something else.

I was just on the southeastern side of that cell. Even with the limited visibility from my house (didn't get a chance to go up to Ft. Reno) I could see numerous ground strokes. Can only imagine what it must have been like to be directly under it!

Hopefully upper NW bullseyes today. MBY has been fringed a lot this summer, except for the g/d hailstorm several weeks back that caused $1500 or so damage to my car (at least that was the estimate, you have to look pretty hard to see more than one or two dents.

Not a bad little storm. Certainly halting the HI train in its tracks.

Some pretty close in CG with it.

1 hour ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Actually have a good feeling on this second round T&L wise. I think we could be in for a show. 

eh, not quite was I was hoping for ...

Actually have a good feeling on this second round T&L wise. I think we could be in for a show. 

The T&L with that first round was some of the best this season. Wasn't much of it, but it meant business when it unloaded. Wind didn't exactly bowl me over though. With all the storms in my immediate vicinity this season, only one that I can recall has had decent wind. Cloudbursts, hail, possible wall cloud, yeah, but I don't think IMBY I've approached severe wind criteria (58+) all season. Notoriously difficult to judge, of course, (well, for me at least, even with my Skywarn training) without a weather station/anemometer.

Western sky was looking ominous there for a while with round 2, but nasomuch now. Still hearing distant thunder. I always love daytime storms where you hear the thunder half an hour before the event actually hits, the thunder getting louder as the storm approaches. Subjectively speaking, that kind of evolution doesn't seem to happen as much as it did when I was younger, but I'm sure that's just observer/misty memory bias. 

And I'm a sucker for days with 3 or more rounds of storms. I'd almost rather have three rounds of decent storms instead of one big one (unless we're talking derecho or June 2008 -- which had multiple rounds anyway -- or July 2010).

My street was a mini-river from curb to curb in upper NW. That's only happened a couple of times since I've lived here. One of last August's cloudbursts, June 2006, maybe one or two others I've forgot. And I'm nowhere near any stream or creek. 

Amazingly, only a little bit of water in the basement. When I went down there earlier, I was expecting to spend my morning dancing with the water vac. Fortunately, as another poster said, it didn't train like 6/06.

Wow ... legit golfball-sized hail in upper nw and a lot of it.

Getting some pretty gusty winds, I'd say in the 40s. Also some pings, I couldn't see any hail but raindrops generally don't make that sound, so I'd say a little bit of (very small) hail mixed in as well. Some thunder but no close lightning strikes.  

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

You're closer to the forcing and multiple models carry some sort of cells or complex through your area. SEPA has a little mini tornado allery IIRC. 

I seem to remember seeing one tornado-incidence recurrence map that had a lollipop of enhanced frequency to the north of the Bay, taking in places like York and Lancaster, maybe extending south of the M/D line, but not as far as the DC metro (may have glanced the Baltimore metro to the north and east). But that map didn't have any similar lollipop over, say, La Plata, so take it for what it's worth. Maybe the map predated 2002. 

Outperformed for sure. Would love a round 2 even if it’s only GV.

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

DCA gusted to 68mph

Wow, I wasn’t anything close to that up here. Maybe 45-50 tops.

Great looking storm though nothing really noteworthy in upper NW. Some good wind and the obligatory 3-min cloudburst. As often the case some good stokes and booms even as the western sky is clearing.I thought I might have heard some hail as I was driving back from my vantage but it was pollen-size if it was and thus pretty much indistinguishable from raindrops. But the storm did have a great look— best I’ve seen in a while, I know that’s totally subjective but I,ve always been into weather for the aesthetics and the theater of it: great shelf cloud, a lot of green tint (maybe that’s why I had an audio-llucination of “hail”), some profound CG off to the distance. Looked particularly nasty as I looked due north from Ft Reno; no surprise as central MOCO seemed to have this one’s beam on it,

On 4/26/2019 at 3:34 PM, yoda said:

Quick question... see the bolded in this tornado warning update statement from LWX:

Didn’t mean to xpost

see a bit of green tinge to sky looking nw

Not a day to go hiking in the Wichita Mountains in SW Oklahoma. But on non PDS-days, it's really one of the underrated parks in the nation. Not to mention the bison herds. Discovered it when driving cross-country with my wife (at that time GF) years ago (my best trip ever, that's when we knew we should commit to each other.) Coming south out of OKC, they just loom up like the spine of some giant prehistoric creature. I try to go visit it whenever I'm out that way, which isn't often. Just thinking about what a jewel in the rough this place is, while following this potentially high-impact day out in TX/OK. The Wichitas are smack in the middle. I thought I might have read something about how they influence storm formation a while ago.

37 minutes ago, high risk said:

Reviewing the morning CAMs, several of them show storms developing in northwest VA or eastern WV and then moving southeast towards the RIC area.    Not a whole lot of signal for the folks in central MD.   I agree with SPC, though, that there is sufficient deep layer shear to support some SVR in any storms that organize.  

Maybe they’ll lay down some kind of boundary?

Yea, I know, “lay down a boundary” is the weenie t-storm equivalent to “backbuilding.”

edit: oh, l see LWX mentioned a boundary in its AFD. But maybe this is a separate batch from the decaying MCS Sterling mentioned?

Not much T&L in upper NW but then again I was in a basement for part of it. Brief cloudbusts, some really optimized ominiscity (a new coinage that most assuredly will not catch on) above me, little bit of wind, but all in all, fringed.

My daughter goes to school up near Cabin John and said they got nailed today: barrage of t&l, torrential rains, some impressive winds. The same school that was in the parth of the tornado warned cell last week and made no effort to get the kids to safer places, getting them away from windows, etc. Some were in gymnasiums, walking around outside, I even think some outside athletic after-school practices were going on and not interrupted. OK, the cell didn't drop and wouldn't have been a monster if it did, but still ... I'm tempted to say something, but my daughter says it would embarrass her, so maybe I'll email someone in confidence. 

OK, so that lowering I saw from Fort Reno did have something to it. 

Just seeing those pics, imaging a tornado of some strength rolling along the Beltway in the vicinity of the Legion bridge during rush hour ... what a mess that would be. 

I was up on ft Reno looking at the tor warned cell. Thought there was something of a wall cloud and I like to think I saw some tube like lowering but was probably just scud. Did not see any rotation but from my vantage that may not have been noticeable. Pretty ominous looking cloud regardless

Not lamenting that the torrential rain didn’t show up

Went up to ft Reno and looked over toward Bethesda. Definitely a shelf (?) cloud over Bethesda but no rotation as far as I could see. It’s a bit away and of course dark. Some low clouds scooting NE. If I put my imagination glasses on Ithought I might have seen a slight protuberance hanging down from the cloud but in all likelihood that was just interplay of city lights and low cloud or just an outright mirage.  Nothing to sound hells bells about that’s for sure. But this was the closest tornado warning to upper NW for a (long?) while so figured it was worth a gander

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

i'm generalizing, but i always feel like our best severe events are preceded by sunshine, light winds...basically the calm before the storm.  i don't know why that is, but it seems to hold true for a lot of potential setups.  i don't like seeing clouds or breezy conditions before what's supposed to be severe storm chances.  not saying we can't do severe without typical summer day conditions, but we really need things to destabilize and/or have a nice vort pass to get anything interesting here it seems.

IIRC, the day of the college park F3 (and an “F4” in Virginia; I’ve never been convinced of that rating), it was pretty overcast most of the day. But I think the lee trough associated with that day really helped to ramp things up. Plus September 2001 was a pretty dystopian month around here anyway.