09-10 analogy

3 hours ago, GATECH said:

Things are pretty busy across CONUS.  Coast to coast winter, impressive

Amazing map. Just about every state west of the Appalachians has some kind of winter-related alert.

Chiming in, in upper NW cars are encased and there is growing accretion of ice on trees. I can tell untreated sidewalks are probably an invitation to a hard fall so I’ll be “enjoying” this from the inside looking out. There’s a little sleet but mostly FZRN.

2 hours ago, Kleimax said:

Oklahoma can get a foot of snow, but we can’t. FFS

So that means, in exchange, we get an outbreak of EF3s-5s this spring? Or a June 23, 1944 outbreak redux, displaced 100-200 miles or so to the east?

Side streets covering up nicely in upper nw. Since my house faces north I still had some snow on the ground from last weekend. Most of my front yard is pretty much shadowed from the sun all day at this time of year. So, at least IMFY, this is the much-desired snow on top of snow. 
I never got too invested in this one for some reason, so my ruling passion is ambivalence for today. Passionate ambivalence is not a bad way to come to grips with a lot of life’s little PITAs. 

Shoveling was, unexpectedly, not bad. I shoveled Sunday but then the ice/sleet accreted, so I dreaded having to hack away at that once I removed the new layer of snow. But it came up easily enough and in places where it didn't, like on the brick entrance to the house, I just whacked at it a time or two with the shovel and it loosened up. I rather like shoveling soft snow -- though I'm not as much of a fan of it than Jeb  -- but shoveling ice, like walking on it, is a pain. I guess being above freezing always helps

Probably should have shoveled yesterday to be a Good Citizen and all that, but I was pissed about the storm. Remarkable how, starting late yesterday, my opinion on this turned around. This really was a unique event, even though it never got above what I consider low-to-moderate intensity here. But it's hard to find much fault with a 54-hour or so duration event. Absolutely beautiful walking around as it got light this morning. And it looks like there's a little more incoming? 

Just measured about 2.5" on the deck before I hit ice. I measured a bit over 2.5" late Sunday, so I'm at least 5" for the whole event and maybe more depending on the great Compaction spirit.  

Side roads around here are mostly snow covered. 

Yeah I’ve had to change my assessment of this one. The sheer persistence of this thing is remarkable. 48 hours of mostly frozen precipitation. And this band is great. Even getting a little wind. I think part of it is my tendinitis in both shoulders is bothering me from not being able to go to the gym, so I’m cranky. 

Just woke up to work, couldn't sleep, and see that it's snowing a little again. I guess I'll have to pull up the radar ..  

Largest flakes I’ve seen so far. Not heavy but pretty under the streetlights. And I can just tell by looking that I wouldn’t want any part of vehicular travel tonight.

It’s OK here in Tenleytown but rippage it ain’t. 

Steady SN now

I can actually look out the window now and lose count of the number of flakes falling. That’s a first for today and is really stretching the definition of “looking on the bright side.”

29 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

 

I guess 1-3” rates per 36 hours doesn’t rate an MD.

Some flakes mixing in occasionally in up nw

Moderate sleet in up nw

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Anyone in far NW dc? Looks like a solid band just popped overhead. 

Light to mod snow with a pinger or two mixed in. 

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Haha, I hear that.  My daughter turned 17 in November and is a senior in HS this year, and I cannot believe how fast that time has gone!  I swear it doesn't seem like that long ago that she was out in a snow suit during the Dec. 2009 storm, with snow up past her waist level!  Not such a little kid anymore, hahaha!  It's just too bad that with COVID, school has been remote this entire year so far (actually going back to March last school year).  I am certainly not complaining about the remote stuff, as I totally get it...but it's just too bad this happens during one's senior year is all.  But you make the best of things!

Mine is turning 17 in March. I still remember the first event in Dec 2009, when we got about three inches early in the month, and I have a film of my daughter and her friend catching snowflakes on their tongues. And then after the second storm in February, digging out a snowfort so that all three of us (my wife, not my daughter's friend) could fit comfortably inside. (If I"d kept digging, I'm sure we could have fit a yeti in there as well.) It all seems like yesterday. 

/wistful

It's a shame COVID had to compromise your daughter's senior HS year so far but hopefully she'll be able to experience some of it after March. 

Light snow, eyeballing it 1-2" (like many things, I'm not good at eyeballing). It isn't covering the side streets I see out the window; hell, in December's little dance, the streets were more covered. After I fortify myself with coffee, will head out for Glover-Archibald Park. Or maybe I'll get ambitious and jebhike up Nebraska to Rock Creek. By the time I get there I'm sure the dryslot currently along the Virginias' border will be fully entrenched overhead. 

I'm following the probabilistic LWX product like a day trader probably followed Pets.com in 1999. Now it's high-end max for Tenleytown is 12", up from 9". 

30 minutes ago, George BM said:

Yes that one. Around January 17th IIRC. 

Same day there was an earthquake in LA.  Absolutely crippled the area and probably a lot of individuals who tried to go out in it. Wasn't much fun when I had the balance of youth; do NOT want a repeat of that. Although the February sleet storm, which rivaled 2007, was pretty cool. 

I'm losing faith that I'll get much out of the coastal. These transfers are always iffy and this one seems iffier than most (unless you're running a weather model from Toronto). I'll take my 3-6" from the overrunning tomorrow, but if the deform is nailing Philly and NYC while DC is getting a couple of pity flurries on Monday, that's gonna lead to gnashing of teeth. And I already grind them in my sleep and because of COVID haven't been to the dentist for over a year. So I gotta watch that. 

22 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, I remember that Feb. 2007 storm and liked it as well.  Admittedly, it was a bit disappointing because for some time it looked like a great widespread 12" or so snow event through the DC area.  But even still, it was fun.  I got ~3" sleet from that and maybe some glaze, and it did indeed turn into a block of ice for some time (it was very cold leading into that storm and then again after).  I think areas just to the east of DC did get an appreciable ice storm from it.

I've said this before, but I also actually liked the winter of 2006-07, though many think it was "meh".  We just missed the Feb. 2007 event being something huge, sure, and it was warm up through about the 3rd week or so of January.  But dayum...February was a frozen tundra!  I think we also got a decent mixed event later in January too, leading into that pattern.  And Feb. 25 was like a 5-6" paste job.  Feb. 2015 (and into early March) was remarkably similar in many ways with the frigid cold, but we maxed out our potential a lot better!

That Feb 25th storm is kind of underrated I think. (Maybe because the V-day sleet bomb overshadows it.) But it snowed like hell for several hours that Sunday afternoon. Huge flakes IIRC. "Paste job" indeed! Coincided with my daughter's birthday party down in Glover Park. I remember the short trip back up to home was a bit interesting. 

RGEM blows the Knickerbocker away.  Just SMH. 

EDIT: Well, equals it upon closer examination. 

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

This group gets greedy on the whole. Always has been. Promise me the NAM front end snow and I’ll ignore the CCB. I’d rather be assured of 4-6” than run the risk of a suppressed or washed out WAA AND miss the CCB. Shrug. 

It's easy to get greedy with something you get for free ... well, except for paying for the Internet connection that allows you to see the latest trends in models breaking your heart and teaching you why it's not good to get greedy with something -- snow -- you're ostensibly getting for free. 

I think there's a tautology in there. 

For what it's worth, the NWS experimental product that shows high-end totals, just about every location (60-70 or so), all have either 12" or 13" as the maximum. Chances of 8" in Lexington Park is 33%, in Westminster, 45%. Not saying it's right or wrong, but that's a pretty even regionwide LWX forecast area distribution. Usually it seems places like Berkeley Springs or Woodstock's high end is about 3x or 4x more than that for, say, Prince Frederick. Which, of course, in most cases makes mega-sense. 

And I'm drinking a Washington (state) Cabernet called Gorgeous. It was on sale for 9.99. I used to drink V before snowstorms/blizzards, but yet another concession to age. Cause the Volume God still must be appeased and that's hard to do with Finlandia at 80 proof.