09-10 analogy

Good to see we still do fog well around here.

BWI: 27.2"

DCA: 17.2"

IAD: 31.2"

RIC: 15.2"

Tiebreaker -- SBY: 9.2"

My front yard: 365.22" (actually 26.2")

3 hours ago, mappy said:

I am not sure if they will have a summary, here is their website: https://www.midatlsevere.com/

It is open to the public, tickets were reasonably priced. They will have it next year, trying to align it with AMS Severe Conference that is happening in VA Beach at the end of October, so their thought is to hold the event in Richmond following that AMS Conference nearby. I think October 26th 2024 was the date I saw, but that could change. 

Thanks

On 11/4/2023 at 9:45 PM, mappy said:

Spent the day in Richmond attending the mid Atlantic severe weather conference. So much good weather research going on these days, and got to meet a lot of folks I’ve known from Twitter in broadcast meteorology and emergency management.

Sounds great, do you know if they will be posting a summary of proceedings?Can anyone attend, if they hold it next year?

Warning: quintessential weenie question incoming.
  

If the UA and surface setup before the great Appalachian storm of 1950 had been offset to the east by, say, 200 miles, would the DC area been hit with Pittsburgh-level snows?

All weeieeism aside, that 1950 storm has always fascinated me. Blizzard in Pittsburgh while 40 and rain in buffalo.One of my favorite novels, Suttree by the late Cormac McCarthy,  was set in 1950 Knoxville and he did the research so throughly that the unprecented Arctic outbreak in that storm’s wake (5 in Knoxville) featured in the book.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Appalachian_Storm_of_1950

The NCEI snowfall map from the storm actually paints DC/Baltimore in 2-6”.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-appalachian-snowstorm-november-1950

I guess the O's shouldn't feel so bad about the sweep by the Rangers. Texas is taking apart the Astros so far. Seven game winning streak in the postseason ongoing. 

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

Happy 44th anniversary to those that remember what happened that overnight/morning. It's what got me started keeping weather records  

Orioles were in the postseason then as well

13 hours ago, CAPE said:

I honestly thought it was a hit and run at the time, but Hicks took the pitch. Some sort of miscommunication probably. Hard to believe Gunnar did that on his own in that spot.

Might very well have been a H/R but if it was, that’s an equally stupid move by Hyde. Leading off the sixth or even eighth I could see it but not the ninth. Add it to his collection of poor game 1 stratagems.

Anyway onto today. Great thing about baseball it doesn’t give you much time to rehash the past . G-Rod has come thru big a couple times in the second half so here’s hoping becaus I really don’t want to go to Arlington down two.

Transcendentally stupid move by Henderson. Yeah, yeah, rookie. Even the moss growing on the tree in my back yard would know enough not to try and steal in that situation. 

Certainly was his own choice. Camera showed Hyde screaming. Crappy jump. Not that Hyde covered himself with glory managing. 

Poor at bats in general. This team is not there yet. 

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That...and "go to war Ms. Agnes" are forever etched in my head.

Chuck and Brooks would be so happy right now.

Where'd he get "go to war, Ms. Agnes" from? That is such a unique signature line.

One thing the O's have had through the decades: great announcers. From Thompson to Mel Proctor and John Lowenstein (I loved them) and then Jon Miller and Joe Angel and Gary Thorne and Palmer and now Kevin Brown and Ben McDonald. The announcing was always great, even though the teams often sucked.

The team doesn't suck anymore. 

Watching the celebration and most of these guys aren't much older than my daughter. And there's plenty more percolating in the minors. Beware AL East. Yankees and Red Sox -- there's a new beast in town. Deal with it. 

As Chuck Thompson -- a bit before my time but I've seen videos of his PBP and he was awesome at it -- used to say, "ain't the beer cold!"

From 110 losses to 100 (and counting) wins and the best record in the AL. Pretty good progression. 

Listening to Palmer and McDonald together is like getting a graduate-level course in the nuances of baseball. They are both so knowledgeable and articulate, but each has their own style. 

16 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Brutal.

He was a kind, compassionate man who was very successful at something he loved to do, and brought a lot of people a lot of joy. And there was no obvious  downside to him (although we all have our foibles) since not only have I never read anything bad about him, I've heard numerous people say that they'd never heard anything bad about him. I'd say that's the definition of a successful life worthy of celebration. And I'm a cynic who usually doesn't go in for saying this kind of thing. 

Brooks Robinson just died.

Shit.

Win it all for Brooks.

39 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Perez!

 

 

Heh. My wife said the same thing -- "he looks like that guy in The Big Lebowski." At first I thought she was talking about Donny.

Great game. Great movie. 

Yeah, Ophelia definitely has more of a fall nor'easter feel than tropical, as noted in the other thread. 

Ophelia took a pass on the trip to the nunnery, I guess. (I know, stop with the bad Hamlet jokes.) But I love the name. NHC should just put it in permanent rotation as the "O" name until they have to retire it. Only 2 "O" names have been retired and, offhand, it doesn't seem like there are that many English- or Spanish-language names that begin with "O". So that got me going. 14 "I" names (no surprise) heads this list of retired names alphabetically. (All the more reason, if we're going to go all Shakespeare, to put "Iago" in the rotation; for that matter, "Othello" as well.) 10 "F"s. 9 "C"s. Somewhat surprising that only 3 "B"s have been retired. Early in the season so prolly less likely to be memorable storms (i.e., "strong") but 7 "A"s and 8 "D"s. 

Avon pier NC cam

https://www.surfchex.com/cams/avon/

This year had been boring as hell, with haze being the headline, until late July when the severe thunderstorms started popping across the region. Now we -- or at least some of us -- have a by-god tropical system to experience. Things have turned around a bit. 

1979, David, and the O's had the best record in the AL.

This year, whatever it's called (if it's called anything) and the O's have the best record in the AL.

Analogs!

EDIT: So it's "Ophelia"? Love the Shakespearean names for tropical storms. They should just use Shakespearean names from here on in until they run out. But the guy wrote 40-odd plays so there should be a good reservoir of names to use. 

"Get thee to the National Mall. Why wouldst thou be a breeder of weenies? I myself am hardly indifferent but yet I could accuse me of following a glorified post-tropical system that it were better my mother had not borne me. I am very bored and therefore yearning for some interesting weather, with more offenses -- particularly at the reading of model output -- than I have thoughts to put them in ... or time to go to Cape Charles and act thereupon. "

57 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Record or near-record flooding now forecast along the Delaware Bay:

 

 

 

 

When were those records set? Isabel? Sandy? Or maybe Ash Wednesday if the records go back that far?

They lose two to the Cards and lose the first two to the Rays, and everyone is getting a bit edgy. Maybe the O's are going the way of the 2011 Red Sox? Reverting to their Pythagorean? But then G-Rod plays ace, the O's take the next two from the Rays, clinch the playoffs, take two semi-slugfests from an Astros team that's still very good. Their record against teams over .500 (a more viable stat than some Fangraphs over-engineered "power rating") is the best in the league and behind only (of course) Atlanta. (What a beast that team is.) If they win the division, the O's have home field through the playoffs. What a season. 

They need to hold the division though. Otherwise, they're a 4 seed, even though Baltimore would still likely have the second-best record in the league. (Something wrong there.) They do have the tiebreaker against TB, and the O's seem to have the easier balance-of-the-schedule: Cleveland, the Nats, Boston. TB plays mostly Toronto and Boston. 

It'd be real nice to get Bautista back, too, although the O's have gone 14-8 in his absence.

It just seems proper that the Orioles and Rays play for the Series slot. Two small markets, just about game they've played this year has been exciting. I'm so sick of hearing about the "legendary" Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. That's yesterday's news. Baltimore-TB: that's where the action is now. I wonder how the Yuckees and Red Sux like being 19 and 20 games out?

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Best severe weather day of the season with the latest storm, got a decent amount of pea size hail and some pretty intense gusts with it. Think it was a somewhat localized microburst overhead, either way the rain was needed. 

Yeah I got that impression too: that there was a lot of wind energy off the surface. The sound of the wind - very loud — didn’t seemed to correspond to the swaying of the trees, which is what I made my guesstimate of 40+ from. From how loud the wind sounded it seemed like there would have been more action at the surface. Branches down, that kind of thing. Of course this could be — and probably is — all my imagination, without any validity at all. 

Potent storm rolling through right now. Couple close CG strikes, winds over 40. I'd say it's the second or third most rambunctious storm of the season. 

6 hours ago, Stormfly said:

Best nocturnal lightshow up my way in years!

After the main show while looking at some video we started hearing more thunder and went for another round just before midnight.

Finally finished processing long videos on youtube.

The first round (time at money shot, as everyone loves bolts!):
 

 

Then the second storm, this view facing south:

 

The audio quality is quite nice, headphones highly recommended!

And just a few minutes ago, after checking radar I thought why not, checked the tower PTZ and sure enough that anvil is firing bolts into clear air!  I've only seen this from airplane windows.

Amazing nocturnal activity for September.

I remember reading or hearing somewhere that fish tanks are a thing partly because people look at them and feel more relaxed. Well, that’s my reaction to these videos. Watch them and chill. The crickets at the beginning are a nice touch.

The growling is getting louder and more frequent, and I don't have to be looking in the direction of the storms to see the flashes now. 

This is actually kinda neat, if it turns out to be any type of storm at all. Kind of like hearing the Ennio Morricone score before a Metallica concert. 

Coupla decent-looking cells commuting into DC along 395; if I put on my severe wx weenie googles the northernmost looks like it's got a tiny little notch. 

EDIT: Naah, it really doesn't. But there is distant thunder and the occasional flash off to the SW.