09-10 analogy

Very active late February/early March period forecast to occur; perhaps we can sneak some of that up there?

And, yeah, an EF2 in New Jersey in February is pretty impressive. Mercer also had an EF2 in 2021, and then there was the Ida outbreak a month later. New Jersey is the new Kansas.

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Did you read the LA office AFD? Feels like something out of a movie

Nice start to the beginning: "All systems go for a major and unusual storm."

Fun times on the Grapevine.

And this: "Cyclonic spin would allow for waterspout 
activity over the ocean with brief small tornadoes near the coast."

Tornadoes to the west of me, blizzards to the east, here I am/Stuck in the middle with you.

Cue Mr. Blonde. 

Ho-hum, another wind advisory. Wind chime retailers in the DMV must be making a fortune, what with all the replacement business traffic they get. 

I am enjoying reading some of the AFDs from out west and the Upper Midwest. Live vicariously, I suppose. I especially like this part from MPX:

By 6PM, the phasing and vertical continuity of the upper
levels is evident, creating a phenomenal scene at the surface.
As the surface low moves up from the southwest, winds will approach
25 to 35 MPH areawide, with gusts approaching 45 to 50 MPH in
western and central MN ... 

This would be similar to what occurred April
2018, when the Twin Cities received 15.8 inches of snow. Due to
obstructions, it is hard to get blizzard conditions in major
metropolitan areas such as the Twin Cities, but with the actively
falling snow and strong winds, this would be an event that could do
so.

Speaking historically, this event could very well break top five
snowfalls in the Twin Cities dating back to 1884. 

It goes on to mention the "Domebuster" storm -- one of the top 5 -- of 2010. Great name for a snowstorm, I guess that was the one that caused the Metrodome's roof to deflate. 

10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah pretty windy out there ATM.

Not our area per se, but this is an outstanding AFD from Birmingham regarding the possible severe weather in the AL/MS/TN area today. Very educational ... well, to me at least. Anyway, thought I'd share it. 

https://kamala.cod.edu/al/latest.fxus64.KBMX.html

My daughter got to experience -20 below air temps in CNY. I’ve never experienced that kind of low before, so I’m jealous. Still have her and probably most people beat on the high, though: 122 in the shade in Death Valley in august 2000.

18 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Up in Hamilton NY dropping my daughter off at college. Expecting 6-9”, snowing moderately now. We’ve had a heavy band pass though for a bit an hour or so ago. Getting to the high end locally is prolly dependent on where exactly the FRONTGEN sets up, might be just south of here. Got a few beers, my wife and I are going to take a walk in a bit. Really, there’’s nothing like falling snow at night, especially in unfamiliar surroundings, when it’s not too cold out. There’s an old cemetery right across the road from the motel, might be a good place to commune with the snow spirits and tell them to give DC a break. Like Aragon in LOTR demanding the dead to pay off their debt to Gondor. I just don’t have the proper sword.
 

Roads should be fine for trip home tomorrow, at least what the locals say. When {if?} I retire, I could easily do it up here. Take the equity from our modest bungalow in dc and could prolly get a g/d Victorian with wraparound porches and turrets to watch for Redcoats coming across the border from Canada.

Actually best action definitely to my immediate south. Radar extrapolations are a big no-no but hell I don’t live here and no one in this forum really gives a tinker’s damn, but I believe these local forecasts for 6”+ are gonna turn turtle. 20 miles south of here, yeah. At home, it’s 20 miles NORTH.  Oh, well.

Up in Hamilton NY dropping my daughter off at college. Expecting 6-9”, snowing moderately now. We’ve had a heavy band pass though for a bit an hour or so ago. Getting to the high end locally is prolly dependent on where exactly the FRONTGEN sets up, might be just south of here. Got a few beers, my wife and I are going to take a walk in a bit. Really, there’’s nothing like falling snow at night, especially in unfamiliar surroundings, when it’s not too cold out. There’s an old cemetery right across the road from the motel, might be a good place to commune with the snow spirits and tell them to give DC a break. Like Aragon in LOTR demanding the dead to pay off their debt to Gondor. I just don’t have the proper sword.
 

Roads should be fine for trip home tomorrow, at least what the locals say. When {if?} I retire, I could easily do it up here. Take the equity from our modest bungalow in dc and could prolly get a g/d Victorian with wraparound porches and turrets to watch for Redcoats coming across the border from Canada.

On 12/28/2022 at 11:49 AM, North Balti Zen said:

I don't know what that is but check this out...

 

Car thermometer reads 6, but did not start up car to read it. Extrapolating from surrounding WU sites, I’ll head canon that I reached 5. 
I had an old-fashioned thermometer but it doesn’t stay put in its brace. I really should invest in some glitzy digital product. I’m so behind the times, even the classified ads are simply vague receding shapes on the horizon.

2 hours ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Yep that’s the highest I saw from the most recent LWX ob list

Car thermometer—only one I have—read 19. Went for a bit of a stroll after working out. Not bad out except for the wind, as the bromide goes

10 minutes ago, George BM said:

IAD gusted up to 48kts (55mph) this hour.

Yep that’s the highest I saw from the most recent LWX ob list. I’ve been well into the 40s, at least, here.

1 hour ago, lpaschall said:

 

EF2 at least

No accumulation, but there’s  a nice sized puddle near a storm sewer  on my street, so it’ll be interesting to see when it freezes over.

that has got to be the nerdiest thing I’ve ever posted here, and that’s saying something. Most places, saying “I spent the Friday before Christmas watching standing water freeze over near a sewer” would get me committed.

Now the wait is on to see if any surface starts to “cave.”

ill prolly be waiting a month or so for that.

Some potent gusts and flurries in up nw. 
I’d say we’ve gone from intermittent flurries to light to moderate snow. Been a while since I’ve seen snow vectoring at 240-270 degrees

25 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Nothing says the holiday season like low topped convection

They better bolt down the national Christmas tree against the wedges that are going to form on the Ellipse.

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Does the fact that the 12z shows more of a closed 500 low than the 0z have any implications as to trend? 

EDIT: As in, trending toward a more gratifying surface solutions for weenies.

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

GFS vs the world, we got this!



.

I've never posted the following anytime, anywhere, but now is as good a time as ever:

America, f**k yeah!

12 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I alway consider November 11 the period where we can start watching for snow….took 4 hours to travel from University of MD College Park to Greenbelt that day when surprise snowstorm hit….cars were abandoned all along my route home….thunder snow fell fast and furious.  One of the most memorable storms of my life so far…

Clearly obvious why the Veterans Day snowstorm was so anomalous for the DMV ...

... Parr's Ridge didn't jack. 

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

fantasy model season starting off strong

Did you get my PM requesting to join your Discord? 

19 hours ago, Stormfly said:

Katydids' chorus sounds more like early Sept than first week of November.

Noticed that too last night. Now I know what exactly was making that sound!

It was quite warm yesterday during Wisconsin ave open streets event. Bit of a gambit planning it for early nov, but it paid off. Almost too warm

May be even foggier now than Tuesday

Knife. Cut. Fog. Proverbial.