BuffaloWeather

Hasn't stopped snowing here. Still extremely wet, but sticking still. Big difference between Blasdell and here.

Moderate to almost heavy snow in Hamburg, sticking Quite the difference in blasdell

Looks good wolf. Looks like I will be on the northern edge of the snow tonight as it focuses on far southern erie county. In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave (mid level energy)... the steering flow during the first half of tonight will become westerly. As the cold air in the cyclonic flow deepens...increasing instability over the relatively warm lakes (near 40 open waters of Lk Erie and mid 40s open waters of eastern Lk Ontario) will activate the lake snow machines which have been dormant for the past few weeks. Moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow will then become focused over much of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill plateau. Supporting the snowfall will be adequate instability...a reasonably long fetch (esp. Lk Ont)...and a well aligned steering flow. On the other hand...snowfall will be held back somewhat from the cap being in the vcnty of 10k ft. That being said...the mixed phase layer will certainly be deep enough with a -10c isotherm around 3k ft to support at least the potential for electrification for sites east of Lk Ontario. Have thus added the chance for thunder/lightning. The Tug Hill is usually the focus for any lightning. Boiling this all down...forecast snowfall amounts tonight will range from 3 to 5 inches east of Lake Erie (focus on the Chautauqua ridge) with snowfall rates of a half to one inch...to 5 to 9 inches accumulation on the Tug with snowfall rates of one to two inches. Brief periods of three inch rates for the latter cannot be ruled out. Outside of these lake snow areas...amounts will generally be under an inch.

Can't believes it's 2020 tomorrow. Buffalo is 2.4 degrees above normal for the date as of the 30th. We are also -7.1 inches for snowfall. Shockingly we're actually 1/2" ahead of last year for total snowfall to date. We look to get some lake enhanced/les tomorrow into weds morning. We then look to experience a period of colder weather Jan 5-9 where we have a few chances of some snow. Models start to diverge towards the middle of the month. Morning runs look pretty conclusive on a very warm pattern shaping up. Tonight's runs look less like that. There will still be quite a few cutters the next few weeks but if we can ride the gradient right the NE seems like it should do okay in this type of pattern. As the case has been all year the models and even ENS have been terrible beyond a week so take everything with a grain of salt. CIPS analogs look slightly above normal in long range extended. Hope everyone has a great new year and go bills! Indices don't look the greatest but we may get some help from the EPO. AO seems to be going down which would help too Potential around the 7-9th for a clipper/miller B Jan 10-15th look quite warm right now, but that's too far out to get into specifics with the current up and down modeling.

This thread kind of died. Picked up 7.2" from todays lake effect event. Had some snowfall rates above 2" per Few pics From NYS thruway

The issue is Neutral Enso conditions result in a very up and down pattern. There are other drivers that are dictating the forecast. MJO, PV, AO. I don't expect anything to really lock in all winter. It's been a great "winter" for most of the midwest and northeast already. Almost everyone is way above normal snowfall totals for Dec 2nd.

I haven't seen models this confused in years. They are good for about 7 days out with temps and 3-4 days with precip, anything beyond that is brutal.

Lock it in?

I didn't think 65" in 24 hours was possible here. Detroit can definitely break 100" in a year given their location. Just need the right setup.

I think this is a great year for the midwest and western Great Lakes. We should squeeze out an above average year here too based on Neutral/Weak Enso conditions which are our best winter snow years.

The Peruvian glaciers at this location 14000 feet where I am standing, looking up to over 19,000 are melting extremely quickly. https://earthsky.org/earth/disappearing-peruvian-glaciers

I'm back from exploring Peru, a magical place in which the elevation kills you. Also contracted a parasite that shut me down for 2 days down there. Otherwise a fantastic trip! Decided against going to rainbow mountain due to advice on here! Video: https://imgur.com/BUYpueS

Reed Timmer does this as well for a living. Pretty much my dream job of all time, nothing else would come close a side from a professional hockey player and even then it would be close.

I'm from New York and thought Sandy was lame. So overrated.

He also got a show on television and is likely paid considerably for it. He's living the dream I wish I had. No one should feel sorry from him, he usually reemerges within a week following a chase on here. He's a veteran in chasing Canes all over the world. Some of those Philippians islands facing 200+ mph would have me worried much more.

My uncle just bought a house back in Buffalo and they are officially snowbirds. They have 2 houses near Delray Beach a little bit south of West Palm. Keeping an eye on this one, as they will have to fly back and board up if the Euro is correct. Pretty much a direct hit as their house is on the beach.

How much? Looking for a Double.

Get some jet skis they’re more fun anyways. You can use them May-September every year. I plan to get one soon, a bunch of my buds ride every weekend all summer.

Looks like some really strong gusts here.

Some crazy videos coming out of Hong Kong from it’s second landfall.

Ohio, your lake effect posts are the best on this forum. Always appreciate your insight. Good luck at your new location!

Looks like you guys were right in Eries snowfall accumulations being incorrect. The NWS is tossing the 24 hour record and the December snowfall record and keeping them what they were. Interesting read. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/extremes/scec/reports/20180723-Pennsylvania-Snowfall.pdf

Right now