BuffaloWeather

Just going through the CFS real quick. I would be shocked if our D-F ends up +2-5 Temperature wise. DEC: JK JAN: FEB:

Most long range temperature outlooks have warm bias. Global warming factors into these quite significantly. Nearly every year we get warmer and warmer. Every time I've checked the long range climate temp models, no matter what time of year, they are always warm. Obviously it's quite impossible to predict temperature outside of a month or so ahead of time but Weak El Ninos, especially western based allow positive PNA and a trough in the east....generally speaking.

That's awesome that you're able to move around the country and have that flexibility! Since you're such a snow lover, would you ever move out west in the mountains or Alaska? I'm pretty much stuck in Buffalo for life because of the majority of my wife's and my family and friends all live in Western New York. Would miss them too much if I moved.

That's quite a few places. How are you able to just get up and move so frequently?

It's actually better that your location is different than Carols, better data-set for the snowiest place east of the rockies. Make sure you join! The West events are the strongest bands for Ontario. Have you ever experienced lake effect off of Erie/Ontario before or only Michigan?

Matt and Wolfie. Are you guys going to be joining the Co-Op observer/Cocarahs? Would be really nice to get data from you guys in two new snowbelts. It's tough to get reliable data from people in the true belts of lake effect regions. Maybe even get a webcam setup. I don't think there is a report out of Altmar right now and only one in Redfield.

Snow showing up on long range models for first time.

This summer certainly has been warm. I've enjoyed every minute of it. I've had dozens of late night walks in the neighborhood with the wife and puppy. However, I am finally starting to look forward to some cooler weather and fall like conditions in the next month. I also want to experience what it would be like to be in a Hurricanes eyewall. One of the big posters here Josh from Icyclone chases Cat 4/5s all over the world and gets in the highest winds of the eyewall. The guy lives the life! That would be a dream job for me.

All the weak El Nino years. Overall its our highest on average snowfall years. 76-77 is definitely a top analog which was Buffalos best winter and the year Hooker(Montague) set the snowfall record for east of the Rockies.

Well the average first flakes in Buffalo are Oct 24th. In the tug it's probably the 1st week of October on average, especially with elevation. It has already started snowing in the Adirondacks. Nov 1st starts lake effect season around here. We also start our winter thread later than any other forum. https://www.weather.gov/buf/FirstSnow

Canada is going to be building up their cold and snowpack much earlier this year.

2 weeks today from the countdown to winter thread. Oct 1st every year we start ours. This winter has some great potential. So many signs pointing in the right direction. The top analogs are all great years.

Still looks good for a decent amount of rain across central NY

Looks like some really strong gusts here.

Some crazy videos coming out of Hong Kong from it’s second landfall.

Buffalo is +5.6 above normal temp wise so far for the month. Will be the 5th straight month at above normal temps. So far we are at +1.4 for the year. https://www.weather.gov/media/buf/obs/COOPTemp_2018.pdf

That’s some pretty strong gusts already. Has to be approaching hurricane force.

Big flare up of convection on the SW portion of the eyewall. Will be interesting to watch the next few hours to see if that wraps itself around the eastern portions of the eyewall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

Snowed on whiteface mountain yesterday. I just climbed this in August.