...HEAVY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...
Snow will increase by mid afternoon and become heavy by late
afternoon into early this evening. Snowfall rates after 3 PM over
1 inch per hour are expected. Since the heavy snow will occur
from late afternoon into the early evening, expect a very slow
evening commute in some areas. Give yourself extra time to reach
your destination.
@Thinksnow18
Check out these temps for the 2nd event...this will freeze Erie pretty quickly. I actually think Erie is completely frozen by next weekend.
Lol Syracuse doesn't suck synoptically. It's literally the best city in New York for synoptic/LES combo. There is a reason they average more per year then any city in USA with 100k people.
GFS with a nice band through all of erie county. Well aligned flow, - 15 850s, fantastic moisture. I think we see back to back Lake effect snow warning events.
We have to cash in the next 2 weeks as the lake will 100% be frozen in 3 weeks time. That cold air coming means business. The 2nd event reminds me of Jan 2014 as the lake was freezing as the event unfolded. Totals were reduced due to this. That was the coldest LES storm I was ever in. There were constant blizzard conditions with wind chills in negative teens. I remember it was tough for me to walk in it for more then 5-10 minutes.
https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=G
Looks like a LES event Friday Night into Sunday Morning, a moderate synoptic event Sunday Afternoon, and then round 2 of LES from Monday into Wednesday?
I'm excited for short term models. QPF on the globals doesn't mean too much they're always way off. They are good for general placement, 850 temps, moisture, etc...