There is a lot going against this event. Lake temps are marginal, winds are very strong and changing, moisture is good for a limited time, and its a short time frame that LES can be produced. Friday-Sat. afternoon.
Probably not, but nearly all models have showed it last 12 hours. As I've already said now casting event. Band likely starts north of Buffalo and drops south into city/southtowns.
In terms of confidence with this 1st event I'm at like a 2 out of 5. Has bust potential. Winds/Dry air/Location of bands forecasted...That's the beauty of LES, this is a now cast storm.
It all depends on where that low tracks. It's going to be a now casting event. The latest GFS has a WSW flow compared to the other short range models. Literally 20 miles north or south of that low dictates where the snow band goes...