There is a lot going against this event. Lake temps are marginal, winds are very strong and changing, moisture is good for a limited time, and its a short time frame that LES can be produced. Friday-Sat. afternoon.
Probably not, but nearly all models have showed it last 12 hours. As I've already said now casting event. Band likely starts north of Buffalo and drops south into city/southtowns.
In terms of confidence with this 1st event I'm at like a 2 out of 5. Has bust potential. Winds/Dry air/Location of bands forecasted...That's the beauty of LES, this is a now cast storm.
It all depends on where that low tracks. It's going to be a now casting event. The latest GFS has a WSW flow compared to the other short range models. Literally 20 miles north or south of that low dictates where the snow band goes...
You can chase any event here in WNY. There are citys/towns everywhere. Tug is different story. Most of the big dogs off tug are in the middle of no where. Off Erie is almost always hits a town or city. As you said basically 2 cities to set up camp and hope it hits you. Watertown (SW wind), Pulaski (W/WNW wind) That is unless you become friends with Carol in North Redfield.