BuffaloWeather

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https://www.livescience.com/south-pole-coldest-winter-record Thanks to the frigid temperatures, sea ice levels around Antarctica were at their fifth highest extent on record in August, the Post reported. But the ice melted rapidly over the next several weeks, and by the end of September sea ice had thinned to some of the lowest levels seen at that time of year. Antarctica's frigid winter temperatures are in contrast to trends in the rest of the world, which overall recorded its fourth hottest summer. In fact, July 2021 was the hottest month ever recorded, Live Science previously reported. "One cold winter is interesting but doesn't change the long-term trend, which is warming," Eric Steig, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, told the Post. In the long term, Antarctica, like the rest of the world, is warming and rapidly losing sea ice

I think the consensus is that you're still going to see anomalous seasons in an otherwise consistent warming trend. Feb 2015 was our coldest all time month but doesn't change the fact that 2015 warmed quite a bit year over year in the general trend line. Winter is only 3 months. You can still get 3 really cold months in a row in any given year.

We likely see Lake Erie break some all time warmth records for October with that forecast.

7 straight days of overnight lows above 60 in almost the middle of October is pretty incredible. Average lows are in the 40s right now.

Southern tip of Greenland? I think there is some green space there.

I told you guys I would be floating in the pool until November this year.

Summer in October

Sunny and mid 70s all week. Perfect fall weather.

I think Oct. finishes with the highest departure of the year if the forecast is right.

Ridge looks to last the next 10 days at least

Average high low for tomorrow is, running about 15-20 above normal. High 62.7 Low: 45.8

Not bad for October Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Columbus Day Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

2011-2012 was a Nina, always a chance at a real bad winter in a Nina pattern. The Euro seasonal doesn't look good.

From Ohio. His forecast is the best on the forum IMO My thought is that there's blocking early, probably peaking in December, and then it backs off a bit through January and into February with the cold shifting northwest and more of a gradient pattern setting up as the SE ridge flexes. So I think it is cold early in the GL/OV and then is milder mid-winter. Snow may depend on where you are...up in Wisconsin it may be most active when the blocking relaxes, whereas farther south gets more of their snow when it's colder with more blocking. I think by November we'll have a decent idea on if the early blocking idea will pan out or not. There is an element of "could go either way" still this early.

OHWeather outlook is out

https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html 1-2.5" of rain across the area.

That storm made no sense it was insane

I think my call is going to be +1-1.5 for temps and +5-10% snowfall from average for Upstate.

There is a lot of self induced issues that medical professionals have to deal with. People choose to do drugs, alcohol, eat badly, sedimentary lifestyle, do stupid things and go to the hospital and expect to get help. I don't see this as any different and a medical professional should not treat your wife this way. Its their job to take care of you, they get good money to do so.

Siberian snow cover has very little effect IMO. Canadian snowcover has a higher correlation. The Pacific has the highest effect on the cold air around here and snowcover in Canada is directly coorelated to the Enso state. That is why Enso states have the highest correlation on winters.

Definitely some correlation between warm Octobers and cool Novembers

Pretty rare to see this on CFS

We might get a real Nina this year with a cold Nov/Dec

My friend is a nurse practitioner in buffalo and everyone of his covid patients are unvaxxed.