BuffaloWeather

Sams ACE is up to 44.3, if it hits 51 it would put it into the top 10 all time of ACE in the Atlantic. http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic Storm Year Peak classification ACE Duration Hurricane Ivan 2004 Category 5 hurricane 70.4 23 days Hurricane Irma 2017 Category 5 hurricane 64.9 13 days Hurricane Isabel 2003 Category 5 hurricane 63.3 14 days Hurricane Donna 1960 Category 4 hurricane 57.6 16 days Hurricane Carrie 1957 Category 4 hurricane 55.8 21 days Hurricane Inez 1966 Category 4 hurricane 54.6 21 days Hurricane Luis 1995 Category 4 hurricane 53.5 16 days Hurricane Allen 1980 Category 5 hurricane 52.3 12 days Hurricane Esther 1961 Category 5 hurricane 52.2 18 days Hurricane Matthew 2016 Category 5 hurricane 50.9 12 days

Yeah this variant killed my buddies wife at 42 years old. When all the data comes out I think Delta will have a higher mortality rate then the original strain. Going to be tough to compare the data as vaccines have been out, imagine Delta without the vaccine...

@TugHillMatthow is your wife feeling today?

Heat doesnt go on in my house until the first snowflakes fall.

The end of the EPS hints at a negative EPO with colder air working into the northwest/midwest. Will the atlantic blocking prevent it from coming east? Looks like the start of a typical La Nina winter.

It's going to rain all Bills game isn't it.

Good point. Syracuse doesn't have a giant warm lake to its west keeping them warm at night.

Well you guys tied Buffalo so we're both sizzling together.

The next week look above normal here with temps in low 70s every day. Keeping the pool open until end of October. Today Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Monday Cloudy, with a high near 73. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 74.

The northeast has missed the forecasted heat the last few days. The midwest ridge has been baking them. Chicago the last 5 days for highs. Looks to be in the 80s today and tomorrow too. 26 83 27 87 28 73 29 82 30 80

Already at 38 ACE. Likely finishes at 50+ Chance to put it into the top 10 in the Atlantic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Sep. Final Numbers BUF: +3.1 ROC: +0.4 WAT: +1.7 SYR: +3.1 BING: +1.1

I guess they are hiring travel nurses to make up for the strike? Going to be a fun fall/winter flu/covid season.

I didn't even know what RSV was until you told me. Does it mainly affect children vs adults? It's a virus just like Covid is?

In terms of early season LES events, this is the most recent one for October. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2015-2016&event=A

I can watch this stuff all day. 1895 (Late Sep) 1905 and 1930 (early/mid October) all featured strong LES events for Buffalo. I'm not sure 5-10" of snow is possible in late September across Buffalo like it was in 1895 with the amount of warming that has occurred. Would have to feature even more insane atmospheric conditions than Oct 2006.

Winter has started in the high peaks regions. Mount Washington.

What day sickness is she on?

The one time I hope we dry slot. Keep me updated wolf.

Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night will be the better chances for rain showers as a surface boundary begins to form just to the south of Lake Ontario, and isentropic lift increases. The deep moisture within now diffluent flow aloft will likely bring widespread rain to our entire region. Will have categorical PoPs across WNY...and to the east where diffluent flow will be weaker...just likely PoPs. Upward to a half an inch or more of rain is possible within prolonged rain and drizzle later Sunday afternoon and through the overnight time period.

RGEM holds off the worst until later afternoon

Hoping the NAM is correct for Sunday

Did she get the vaccine?

Does she have a fever?